WASHINGTON, D.C. – As President Donald Trump’s “deadline” on Iran approaches, analysts warn that further escalation could prolong and widen the conflict with the Middle Eastern country and is unlikely to lead to a quick victory for the United States.
President Trump has stepped up his threats, warning that the U.S. military will destroy Iranian power plants, bridges and other critical civilian infrastructure as the U.S.-Israel war against Iran enters its sixth week.
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Naveed Shah, political director of Common Defense, an advocacy group led by U.S. military veterans, said if the war already in the region does not end soon, there is “no end in sight to how far it will spread”.
“Attacking the infrastructure will not end this war quickly. In fact, it will last much longer. And what we have to do is find a way out, declare some kind of victory and find a way out,” Shah told Al Jazeera.
Iran has already attacked Gulf states since the start of the war and has threatened harsh retaliation if civilian infrastructure is attacked. Analysts say the Iranian government could target energy and power facilities across the region, causing oil and gas prices to rise further.
Several Iranian officials have denied President Trump’s threat to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Brian Finucane, an analyst at the International Crisis Group and a former adviser to the US State Department, said attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure are not only illegal, but also would not help Trump’s goal of reopening Hormuz.
“It’s hard to imagine that this will lead to an early victory for the United States,” Finucane said.
“I do not believe that war crimes or even further acts of mass destruction against Iran will somehow automatically open the strait. Rather, it will likely lead to Iranian counter-escalation against regional energy infrastructure.”
“Gasoline prices will rise further”
Supply pressures from the closure of Hormuz Island are also being felt in the United States, where gasoline prices have risen from less than $3 per gallon (3.8 liters) before the war to more than $4.11 per gallon (3.8 liters).
“The president is really encouraged by the economic impact of this unnecessary war, especially the soaring price of gasoline,” Finukane told Al Jazeera.
“Well, escalating attacks against Iran, and Iran escalating attacks on neighboring countries, will cause gas prices to rise further.”
President Trump has set a “final” deadline for Iran to reopen Hormuz or face widespread destruction in Washington, D.C., at 8pm (midnight local time) on Tuesday.
The US president threatened that “the entire civilization will perish” if the deadline expires.
Qatar, which is under attack from Iran, warned early Tuesday that prolonging the war is not in anyone’s interest.
Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed Al-Ansari said an “unchecked” escalation could take the conflict to the point of spiraling out of control.
“Iran’s violation of our sovereignty cannot be explained or justified in any way,” al-Ansari told reporters.
“Continuing this war in this way will only mean further costs for the people of the region, for international peace and security, for the international economy and for the international energy market, and there are no winners in continuing this war.”
While a diplomatic breakthrough cannot be ruled out in the coming hours, the Israeli military announced ahead of Tuesday’s deadline that it had begun targeting Iranian civilian infrastructure, bombing railways and at least eight bridges across Iran.
President Trump’s threat
Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, said further threats or attacks by President Trump would only invite further Iranian resistance.
“Since President Trump’s first term, maximum pressure has not produced Iranian surrender. In fact, as Iranians say maximum resistance, it has produced the exact opposite. That is why we are here,” Mortazavi told Al Jazeera.
In 2018, President Trump abandoned a multilateral agreement to reduce Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for lifting sanctions on its economy. Since then, the United States has continued to impose economic sanctions on Iran.
In June 2025, Israel launched a war against Iran, with the United States joining in and attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities.
But Iran’s government remains defiant, insisting on its right to enrich uranium domestically as part of its civilian nuclear program and refusing to discuss the limits of its missile program.
Tehran has refused to bow to Washington’s demands even after U.S. and Israeli attacks killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior officials in an ongoing wave of violence.
Days before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, Trump aide Steve Witkoff said the president was “interested” in why Tehran had not “surrendered” amid Washington’s military buildup in the region.
Now, President Trump has raised the stakes again, threatening not only to kill Iran’s leaders and bomb its military, but to destroy Iran itself.
Mortazavi said Trump seems to believe there is a “threshold of intimidation and pressure” that will cause any political party to give up on their country.
“I don’t think this next level of escalation will bring about what he wants, which is complete capitulation and capitulation,” Mortazavi told Al Jazeera.
