At U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration in January 2025, only one European leader was present: Italy’s right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. A month earlier, French President Emmanuel Macron was photographed having an intimate tête-à-tête with Trump in the dining room of the Elysée Palace, where French President Emmanuel Macron was hosting a celebration of the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris.
From the start of Trump’s second term as president, Meloni, who was once on the fringes of Italian politics with his distinctive brand of neoliberal far-right ideology, has been seen as “the chosen one” and said the European leader could work with him to “fix the world a little bit.” During a visit to the White House last April, Trump affectionately called her a “real relay.” He was the first European leader to visit again after President Trump announced global trade tariffs.
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Meloni did it. She appealed to the world that she was the only European who could defuse President Trump’s trade war, calling him an “excellent man” and vowing that together with him, she would “make the West great again.”
More than a year later, President Trump’s war with Iran has been the trigger, and that affection has now reached a juncture.
“When you disagree, you have to say it. And this time, we don’t agree,” he said last weekend about the U.S.-Israel war on Iran during a visit to the Gulf region, the first by a Western leader since the war began.
Coupled with Italian authorities refusing to let a US bomber refuel at a military base in southern Italy a week ago, Meloni’s words were the clearest sign yet that she had finally said “no” to Donald Trump.
crumbling bridge
“She wanted to act as a bridge between President Trump and his European allies, which initially seemed like a good idea,” said Roberto Dalimonte, a political science professor at Rome’s Luis University. “But today it has become a liability and she is trying to correct this.”
When the U.S.-Israel war in Iran began, Meloni’s delicate balancing act of placating President Trump while dealing with the political and economic fallout of a war in which the country was not consulted quickly became a major headache.
Opinion polls show a strong majority of Italians oppose a war with Iran, especially due to soaring energy prices caused by Iran, and the percentage of people with a positive view of President Trump has plummeted from 35% to 19%. Analysts say Mr Meloni cannot ignore this, as he faces important elections in Italy next year.
Last month’s poll showed a majority of voters rejected a referendum on Meloni’s proposed judicial reforms, but analysts say the poll was aimed at expressing disapproval of Meloni and her unwavering support for the increasingly unstable American president.
Among voters aged 18 to 34, 61% voted against her proposal. It was Meloni’s first major defeat, an anomaly in typically turbulent Italian politics, although he has led a largely stable coalition since taking office.
“The result of the referendum is partly due to the fact that many young people voted against it,” said Ettore Greco, vice president of the Rome-based think tank International Institute (IAI).
delicate balance
The Iran war is not just a political issue for Italy, but also a major economic concern.
The country is particularly vulnerable to rising energy prices due to the ongoing conflict that has disrupted markets across Europe. Italy is the second largest consumer of natural gas in the European Union after Germany, and relies on natural gas fuel for approximately 40% of its energy needs. But about a fifth of the world’s energy exports are now stuck in the Gulf, as Iran has almost completely shut down traffic in the Strait of Hormuz following attacks by the United States and Israel.
Last week, the government angered Italian businesses by cutting funding from a program meant to support investment, citing the fallout from the war. The Bank of Italy expects Italy’s economy to grow by 0.5% this year and next, lowering its previous forecast. And in a further setback, Rome’s national statistical agency reported that the country’s budget deficit had breached the EU limit of 3%. This means the country is still unable to leave the EU’s infringement procedure and would have given Meloni more fiscal flexibility ahead of next year’s elections.
However, this does not seem to be the end of Meloni’s overtures to the US president.
Her desire to find a balance between maintaining a warm relationship with Trump while condemning his aggressive foreign policy is clear in her calm declarations. In mid-March, she ruled out sending warships to the Strait of Hormuz, despite President Trump’s request, aligning with the position of other European countries. But at the same time, she does not fully condemn the US-led conflict.
After all, it will take some effort to break free from Donald Trump’s clutches.
“She’s a very cautious, pragmatic, politically skilled woman,” Dalimonte said. “She is not going to put all her eggs in one basket… She will still cross the line and move closer to her European allies. One step at a time until she can distance herself without breaking relations.”
