For nearly half a century, terrorism has cast a shadow over Turkiye’s political, social, and economic life. The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its affiliates in Syria, Iraq, and Iran have destabilized the region with separatist violence. The dissolution of the PKK in May 2025 will mark a decisive moment, not only ending the armed conflict but also the beginning of a transformation that has the potential to reshape the region’s future.
As unresolved conflicts, rising migration pressures and energy competition increase global uncertainty, Turkiye’s decisive action will provide Turkiye and the wider region with prospects for lasting peace, secure energy corridors and sustainable prosperity.
Human and economic costs
The human and economic damage caused by terrorism was staggering. Decades of violent operations from the early 1980s to the 2020s claimed nearly 50,000 lives and displaced 1.1 million people.
Terrorism was not only a security issue, but also an economic and social burden for the country. Not only was the human tragedy, but the economic cost was equally devastating. Official estimates put direct counterterrorism spending at $1.8 trillion, or more than $3 trillion after accounting for lost growth, damage to investment, tourism, and infrastructure.
Peace, on the other hand, promises reversal. The analysis shows that excluding terrorism-related costs could significantly increase per capita income in the Southeast over the medium term. In addition, the $14 billion program of 198 projects through 2028 aims to create approximately 570,000 jobs, with a focus on agriculture, tourism, and private investment.
Turkie’s path to peace
What sets Turkiye’s conflict resolution apart is its focus on inclusive and participatory citizenship. This is the first peacebuilding effort to be led by parliament and implemented entirely through the country’s democratic institutions, rather than relying on external mediation.
Historically, after the creation of nation-states in the 20th century, many countries faced secessionist movements, which over time often evolved into terrorism. For example, the Good Friday Agreement that ended the “Unrest” was achieved within seven years through cooperation between the British and Irish governments, mediated by the United States and Canada.
In Spain’s case, the peace process with ETA was completed within six years, supervised by an international contact group and prominent figures such as Kofi Annan, and supported by Norway, Switzerland and France. Similarly, the peace agreement between Colombia and the FARC was achieved in four years and was facilitated by Norway and Cuba as guarantors.
In contrast, the period between President Erdoğan’s initial call in late 2024 and the announcement of the PKK’s disbandment in May 2025 (symbolized by the burning of the organization’s weapons as a show of goodwill) was less than a year, a pace unparalleled in the history of modern peace processes.
As Professor Ira William Zartman pointed out in his “Ripeness Theory,” peace making becomes possible at “the ripe moment.” Tolkier’s rapid progress is remarkable. But the real test will be how comprehensively the settlement is implemented.
intersection of power
Turkiye’s geographical location is at the crossroads of Europe, Asia and the Middle East, and its stability is critical to global energy security. Turkiye is now at the center of a broader geopolitical arc stretching from the Eastern Mediterranean through the Middle East to the Caucasus and the Black Sea, serving as a unique bridge of connectivity and power. The region around Turkiye contains approximately 65 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves and 45 percent of the world’s natural gas reserves.
Major energy corridors passing through Turkiye include the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP, which supplies 16 billion cubic meters per year to Europe), TurkStream (31.5 billion cubic meters to southeastern Europe), and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline (transports 1.2 million barrels per day). This strategic location also made these corridors prime targets for terrorist attacks.
Since the 1980s, the PKK has carried out more than 60 major attacks on critical energy infrastructure in Turkiye, causing billions of dollars in losses and directly threatening Europe’s energy security. The Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline was sabotaged in 2005, 2010, 2013, and 2015, repeatedly disrupting the flow of crude oil to Mediterranean markets. In 2008, an attack on the BTC pipeline forced a complete shutdown for several weeks, halting the vital Caspian Sea oil corridor to Europe. The Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline was attacked in 2012 and 2015, exposing the vulnerability of Europe’s natural gas supply. Even NATO’s fuel pipeline network was attacked in 2012 and 2017, demonstrating the strategic scale of the threat. As Europe strives to secure energy routes, a terrorist-free Turkey is essential for Europe’s energy independence, and active cooperation from Europe and NATO allies is required.
Beyond energy, Turkiye continues to pursue large-scale projects that strengthen its position as a transportation corridor. The development road project is expected to carry 40 million tonnes of cargo per year by 2050 and will connect the Gulf to Europe through Turkiye, providing a faster and more cost-effective alternative to the Suez Canal. Moreover, the Intermediate Corridor already serves as a reliable land bridge, transporting 4.5 million tons of cargo in 2024 and projected to exceed 6 million tons in 2025.
Beyond efficiency, stability along these routes increases investor confidence, strengthens Europe’s diversification strategy and strengthens Turkiye’s role as a reliable energy and transport hub connecting East and West. A stable and terror-free Turkiye is therefore crucial not only for the regional economy but also for the world order.
joint and several liability
The European Union welcomed the disbandment of the PKK as an important opportunity and expressed its readiness to support the peace process. High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Callas called it “one of the few good news coming out of the region”, and European Parliament rapporteur on Turkiye, Nacho Sánchez Amor, described the call for peace as a “historic step”.
The dissolution of the PKK, recognized as a terrorist organization by both the EU and the US, and its proxies in Syria, the YPG and SDF, is expected to strengthen Turkiye democracy, meet EU expectations and accelerate the country’s accession process. For NATO, for which Turkiye has been an anchor in the south-east for many years, it is essential to act in the spirit of the alliance and uphold the principle of the agreement that agreements must be honored. The broader international community should support this initiative and refrain from supporting proxy structures that undermine it.
break down barriers
The most important challenge is to ensure that all PKK members and associated groups fully comply with the disbandment process, and in particular with the agreement of March 10, 2025, in which the YPG/SDF group agreed to be integrated into the Syrian Army and operate under the authority of Damascus. It is clear that failure to disarmament and integration would seriously undermine regional security and have a direct impact on European stability.
Another destabilizing factor is Israel. Continued support for the YPG/SDF jeopardizes the disbandment process and fuels armed separatism along the Turkiye border. Beyond that, while the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza has shaken regional stability, Israel has stepped up military operations in Syria and Lebanon, conducted operations in Iran, and launched attacks on targets in Tunisia, Yemen, and even Qatar during ceasefire negotiations. These actions violate international law and threaten the fragile balance that is only now being restored. Israel’s continued aggression therefore poses a major threat to the security of both the political and energy orders.
new dawn
Decades of chronic fear, pain and division can now be replaced by unity and prosperity. The road ahead is not without challenges, but political unity, social cohesion and international cooperation can transform this moment into a truly historic opportunity. A terror-free Turkiye protects vital energy and trade routes while offering a vision of regional trust and shared progress.
This transformation will have profound implications for regions from Europe to the Caucasus and the Middle East. By removing the threat of new waves of terrorism, chaos and migration, Turkiye will strengthen the reliability of critical supply corridors on which Europe depends, attract further international investment in energy and logistics projects, and create conditions for neighboring countries to build stability rather than conflict. Pursuing this path with determination will pave the way for a future defined by sustainable security structures and lasting peace based on mutual benefit.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance of Al Jazeera.
