A month after Russia’s latest attempt to take over the cities, Ukrainian garrisons are about to begin defending the besieged eastern cities of Pokrovsk and Mirnohrad.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy insisted on Thursday that Russia has no interest in ending the war, amid reports that Washington and Russia have drafted a 28-point peace plan as fighting intensifies on the front. The proposal is said to be an attempt to pressure Ukraine to give up land that Kiev has claimed is a red line that should not be crossed during the war.
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“Russia doesn’t really want peace, otherwise we wouldn’t have started this war,” he said in a recorded message posted to X. “The United States has the power to ensure that Russia is finally serious about ending the war.”
According to Ukraine, Russia has committed 150,000 troops to occupy the enclave, which includes Pokrovsk and Mirnohrad, but is now surrounded on three sides and Ukraine’s supply lines are only open to the west.
President Zelenskiy told U.S. senators during a bipartisan virtual meeting on Nov. 12 that Russia had suffered the highest number of casualties in the entire Pokrovsk war, estimated at 25,000, but he did not specify for what period.
Ukraine’s military defense efforts were highlighted by the story of a soldier from the 155th Mechanized Battalion. He reportedly spent 100 days separated from his unit in the shell of a destroyed building before being rescued.
Ukraine’s General Staff released a video of the fighting in Pokrovsk that showed reinforcements arriving in the city and said it suggested lines of communication remained operational.
“These are shots of our equipment arriving, disembarking, and advancing groups. In these shots, additional assault groups are advancing into the eastern part of the city,” the video narration said. The arrivals announced that they were reinforcing Ukrainian strongholds north of Pokrovsk.
The video then states that troops are “clearing positions on the western outskirts of Pokrovsk and near the entrance to the city. Soldiers of the regiment are securing positions in the administration building in the city center.”
General of Ukraine Oleksandr Shirsky wrote on the Telegram messaging platform: “Continuous fighting continues with small enemy assault infantry groups, with infrequent destruction of enemy light equipment.”
The main action belongs to the drone operators on both sides, who are locked in a fierce battle for control of the skies.
The head of Ukraine’s National Guard fighting in Pokrovsk said Kiev needs to step up production and procurement of drones to interdict Russian troops while they are in the field.
“We need to further deter the enemy from approaching on foot so that they do not invade,” Okeksandr Pivnenko told Reuters.
He said Ukraine had achieved parity with drones on some fronts, but not all.
Surround or invade?
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank, said the Russian military command appears to be undecided between invading and besieging the city, pursuing dual objectives and slowing the advance.
“The Russian military command does not appear to be focusing its forces and means on completing the encirclement of the Pokrovsk-Milnohrad region, which would normally be the quickest and cheapest way to capture the entire area, and instead continues to pursue some degree of frontal attack,” ISW said.
Part of Russia’s problem appears to be the “active defense” of the town of Dobropilya, northwest of Pokrovsk, which Russia sought to seize in August as part of a comprehensive encirclement plan. The attack led to a counterattack, liberating 189 square kilometers (73 square miles) of occupied territory and leaving the Russian encirclement in ruins.
Russia’s 2nd Army and 51st Armed Forces are attacking Pokrovsk and Mirnohrad from the south and north, respectively, and appear to be attempting a more limited encirclement of the enclave using small groups of soldiers, as well as a simultaneous frontal invasion.
Incursions into Pokrovsk from the south appear to have progressed over the past week, while Ukrainian defenders still held the northern neighborhood.
Russia was similarly attacking other areas of its 1,200-kilometer (745-mile) front, testing weaknesses and experimenting with infiltration tactics that had proven successful at Pokrovsk.
During the week from November 13th to 19th, they captured several villages in Kharkov, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia.
One of Russia’s advantages is air superiority. Its aircraft drop 200 to 250 glide bombs a day on the Ukrainian front lines. Ukraine’s deputy chief of military intelligence, Vadim Skibitsky, told Reuters that Russia plans to produce 120,000 glide bombs next year, and the daily average could rise to 330.
“It is possible to shoot them down, but the amount of these aerial bombs produced in the Russian Federation… is huge,” Skibitsky said. “This is a threat. It’s a threat that we need to respond to appropriately.”
long range war
Russia used long-range drones and missiles to attack Ukrainian cities.
In the past week, it has launched just under 1,600 drones and 78 missiles. Ukraine intercepted 86 percent of the drones and three-quarters of the missiles.
Numerous Russian drones and missiles have repeatedly struck residential areas.
The worst such attack occurred on November 19th. At least 25 people, including children, were killed when Russia shattered the top floor of a nine-story apartment building in the western Ukrainian city of Ternopil. At least 80 other people were reported injured.
Continuing to fight back with attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, Ukraine announced on Friday that it had attacked an oil terminal in Novorossiysk. Russia has suspended export operations at the terminal, which accounts for 2% of global oil trade.
Ukraine also attacked the Saratov refinery and a fuel depot near Engels Air Force Base.
The next day, the Ryazan refinery also ceased operations due to a strike.
However, it was unclear whether the operation had the intended impact on Russia’s ability to supply diesel to the military.
Russia was reported to have lost 20 percent of its refining capacity between August and October, but that quickly fell to 3 percent by activating surplus capacity, Reuters recently reported, citing sources and data.
diverse topics
On Wednesday, President Zelensky met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has successfully brokered a prisoner exchange with Russia in the past.
During his visit, President Zelenskiy reportedly avoided meeting with US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, who was believed to have been given a 28-point peace plan by the White House.
Two anonymous sources told Reuters the plan included territorial concessions to Russia and a reduction in the size of Ukraine’s military. Both are important demands from Moscow. Ukrainian officials said Kiev had no role in drafting the proposal.
Earlier, Axios reported that Washington was working on a 28-point peace plan.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters there was “no innovation that can be reported” in Russia’s position.
Separately, Ukraine and its European allies have drafted a ceasefire plan calling for a complete and unconditional cessation of fighting. Europe does not demand that Ukraine cede any territory, but insists on strengthening Kiev’s military.
Zelenskiy is clearly leaning toward the European plan. His European tour began in Athens, where he and Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis announced their intention to jointly develop a water drone.
On Monday, President Zelensky was in Paris to sign a 10-year agreement with President Emmanuel Macron on weapons purchases and joint production. The contract includes 100 Rafale F4 aircraft by 2035, eight SAMP/T air defense systems with six launchers each, air defense radars, air-to-air missiles and guided air bombs.
On Tuesday, Spain became the first country to announce a direct allocation of 215 million euros ($250 million) for joint arms production with Ukraine within the European Union’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) program. Spain also promised 40 Iris-T missiles and planned to provide long-range radar.
On Thursday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz hinted at the possibility of delivering the long-range Taurus cruise missile that Ukraine has long sought.
“In recent months, we have been working intensively with the Ukrainian government on a project that we technically call ‘long-range artillery.’ The Ukrainian army will be equipped with such weapon systems,” Merz said.
