The 2026 primary season, in which U.S. voters will decide which candidates will represent the major Republican and Democratic parties in November’s midterm elections, has begun in earnest with voting in Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas.
The poll began just four days after the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, sparking a regional war and prompting Iran to launch retaliatory attacks across the Middle East. The fighting has left hundreds of people dead, including at least 787 people inside Iran, six U.S. military personnel and several civilians across the Gulf.
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At the same time, the war touches on some of the issues expected to dominate the U.S. midterm season, with Democrats raising concerns about America’s economic affordability and Republicans seeking to reconcile President Donald Trump’s “America First” vow with the latest round of military adventurism.
The results of Tuesday’s election will give an early indication of the temperature of the U.S. electorate ahead of midterm votes that will determine whether Republicans retain their slim control of both the Senate and House of Representatives.
One of the biggest tests will be Texas, where Democrats have long hoped to win a statewide seat but haven’t been able to do so since 1994.
Some political observers have suggested that the matchup between leading Democratic candidate James Talarico, a self-described Christian liberal and centrist who is trying to communicate directly with Trump’s voters, and Republican challenger Ken Paxton, who has been close to Trump, could be Democrats’ best chance to flip the Senate.
Talarico, a seminary student, has maintained a cautious stance on the Iran war, posting “No more forever wars” in response to Saturday’s airstrike, a reference to President Trump’s own campaign promise.
In a speech that followed, Mr. Talarico mentioned the U.S. soldiers killed since the war began, but otherwise avoided delving into political topics.
Her main opponent in the Senate race, Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett, is taking a more confrontational approach, in line with the fiercely outspoken style she said the party needed in the Trump era.
“The question is, how many more lives have to be lost before people heed the warnings,” she said in a video response to the strike, noting the state’s large population of U.S. veterans.
“This president has committed illegal acts since he took office. Unfortunately, we, the American people, are the ones who suffer.”
Mr. Paxton, who is currently Texas’ attorney general, has defended Mr. Trump’s attacks, clearly mindful of the growing unrest posed by Mr. Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement. In the final stages of the campaign, Trump assured reporters that he wanted the fighting to end quickly.
“He wants to end this problem,” he said.
Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn also said he was satisfied with President Trump’s justification for the attack, saying the president portrayed Iran’s ballistic and nuclear capabilities as an imminent threat to the United States, but offered little evidence for that claim.
“This is going to take a lot of political courage, because it’s easier to start these things than it is to end them,” Cornyn said in an interview with Face the Nation published Monday.
A test of party direction
Indeed, the war has obscured, rather than changed, many of the issues that had already dominated the campaign under Trump, including the cost of living, immigration, artificial intelligence, housing, health care, and civil rights.
In North Carolina, progressive candidate Nida Allam was quick to link the war to support her opponent, incumbent Rep. Valerie Fouthie, has received from defense contractors and an artificial intelligence super PAC, as well as past support from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).
The issue is closely tied to Mr. Alam’s opposition to building an AI data center in his district in the most expensive election campaign in state history.
In an ad released Monday, Allam focused on the bombing of a girls’ school in Minab, Iran, which killed at least 165 people, and called himself a “proudly uncompromising peace leader.”
Meanwhile, Houthi co-sponsored a bill to curb Trump’s ability to attack Iran, accusing the president of “violating the Constitution and putting us at risk of renewed endless wars with no clear purpose or exit strategy.”
The parties will also choose a candidate to run for the vacant Senate seat left by retiring Republican Thom Tillis. Democrats will be hoping for upsets in November in so-called “purple” states. The composition of the Democratic Party and the Republican Party is almost the same.
Former Gov. Roy Cooper, who has warned of “another costly and protracted war that will endanger our military and take focus and resources away from our domestic needs,” is considered the front-runner in a crowded Democratic primary that includes five other candidates.
On the Republican side, former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley, who has received President Trump’s support and vowed to remain his “ally” in the Senate, is expected to win the six-way Republican race.
Tuesday’s wave of Democratic turnout will be a sign of momentum heading into the November vote.
Opposition parties typically do well in U.S. midterm elections, but polls show they are disappointed with President Trump’s immigration policies, stewardship of the U.S. economy, and military actions in Venezuela and, most recently, Iran.
Republicans are seeking to capitalize on President Trump’s claims of policy success in his first term, expanding presidential norms and transforming government.
All eyes will also be on the Texas Senate race between Rep. Al Green, 78, who was kicked out of President Trump’s State of the Union address earlier this month for holding a sign denouncing the president’s racism, and Rep. Christian Menefe, 37.
Following the state’s latest legislative redistricting, both incumbents are forced to face off on the Democratic ticket.
Another sign that President Trump may retain control of the party could be the Texas race between Republican Congressman Dan Crenshaw and challenger State Representative Steve Toth.
Crenshaw has been a vocal supporter of many of President Trump’s policies, including the decision to go to war with Iran, but has been critical of several figures close to the president.
He is the only incumbent Republican congressman running for office in Texas who does not have President Trump’s support.
