U.S. Sen. Chris Murphy and Congressman Greg Cassar are planning to introduce legislation to rein in prediction markets after bettors have profited from geopolitical conflicts such as the joint attack launched by the U.S. and Israel against Iran and the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
On Tuesday, both senators announced their intention to introduce the No Trading in Sensitive Activities and Federal Functions Events Act (BETS OFF), which would prohibit betting on “government actions, terrorism, war, assassinations, and events whose outcome is known or controlled by an individual.”
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“Our law is very simple. It just says that we can’t allow people to place bets in these markets against government decisions or frankly any other case where there’s a single individual who controls and knows the outcome of the market,” Murphy told reporters.
The bill comes amid a flurry of bills that would put guardrails on prediction market platforms like Calci and Polymarket, which allow users to bet money on the outcome of real-world events.
Already, bets are being placed on the platform on US military strikes and financial policy.
“What happens to us spiritually when every moral issue in this country becomes a market? Don’t we lose something? Aren’t we a little rotten inside when the question of hunger in Gaza is not a question of what’s right or wrong, but a question of making money or losing money?” Murphy added.
“I think it’s really important that there are certain problems that aren’t monetized by prediction markets.”
Can you make money from war?
Critics point to trends on online betting platforms that suggest a link between upcoming government actions and an increase in the number of bets placed.
For example, in the hours leading up to the US and Israeli attack on Iran in late February, 150 new accounts appeared on Polymarket, betting on the then-looming attack.
Of those accounts, 109 earned more than $10,000 and one earned more than $500,000, according to Casal and Murphy.
As Al Jazeera previously reported, one Polymarket user known as Magamiman made more than $500,000 by betting on the ouster of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. The bet was made just hours before the February 28 strike.
This mirrors what happened in the lead up to the January 3rd attack to overthrow Maduro.
One trader predicted Maduro’s ouster just hours before U.S. forces abducted him, and profited from the attack. The amount paid in this case was $400,000.
Polymarket in particular allows users to place bets anonymously, raising questions about whether government officials are profiting from insider information.
Murphy argued at a news conference Tuesday that recent bets on the Iran war and attack on Venezuela must have come from the White House or someone close to the administration.
“It’s pretty clear what happened: People inside the White House, or people close to the White House who knew about the impending attack, got the cash,” the Connecticut senator said.
Cassar, who represents the cities of San Antonio and parts of Austin, Texas, suggested the prospect of profiting from online gambling could even influence government decisions.
“We shouldn’t live in a country where someone sits in a situation room and makes decisions about whether to invade or bomb, about war and peace, about life and death. Those decisions can be influenced by the fact that there are hundreds of thousands of dollars at stake in those decisions,” Cassar added.
Al Jazeera followed up with Murphy’s office and asked if lawmakers had any evidence that the White House or anyone close to the White House placed the bet, but the office has not yet responded.
Meanwhile, the White House denied allegations that President Donald Trump or his officials were involved in the high-stakes gamble.
“The only special interest guiding the Trump administration’s decision-making is the best interests of the American people,” White House Press Secretary Davis Ingle told Al Jazeera in a statement.
However, the president’s son is actively involved in prediction markets.
In August 2025, Donald Trump Jr. joined Polymarket’s board of directors. Venture capital firm 1789 Capital, which counts Trump Jr. as a partner, backed Polymarket just a month after the Justice Department dropped its investigation into the platform.
Trump Jr. is also a strategic advisor to Mr. Carsi. He joined in January 2025, months before the Commodity Futures Trading Commission withdrew its appeal to block a federal court decision that allowed Mr. Kalsi to offer bets on U.S. elections.
wave of law
But concerns about prediction markets go far beyond betting on government action.
The bill proposed by Murphy and Cassar would also ban betting on outcomes that can be controlled, such as the results of award ceremonies.
“It’s always the powerful that profit in these markets,” Murphy said. “Anyone who knows who will perform at the Super Bowl, who knows what words the president will use in his speech, is a very influential person.”
Casale added that he is not against gambling in general, but is simply trying to level the playing field with Murphy.
“I think people should be able to go to the casino and play poker games and roulette games, but there are rules that say the house can’t rig poker games,” Cassar said.
“When people use their phones to look at these prediction markets, they expect there to be rules to make sure the game is not rigged against them.”
Their bill is part of a series of bills and regulatory efforts to increase oversight across the prediction markets industry.
Just this month, Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal introduced a bill that would establish federal consumer protections for the prediction markets industry, including age verification and banning advertising to underage users.
Sens. Jeff Merkley and Amy Klobuchar, both Democrats, have also introduced legislation that would prohibit elected officials from profiting from prediction markets.
And Minnesota lawmakers are calling for an outright ban on prediction markets as a violation of state gambling law. Meanwhile, the state of Arizona filed criminal charges against Carsi on Tuesday, citing similar reasons.
“I would like to see a comprehensive look at how prediction markets manipulate the overall economy and government actions,” Murphy said.
Two major prediction market platforms, Karsi and Polymarket, did not respond to Al Jazeera’s requests for comment.
