Hong Kong
—
The leaders of Canada and China stood side by side, shaking hands and smiling, a sight that would have been unbelievable just a year ago.
Relations between the two countries soured in 2018 when Canadian police arrested Chinese technology executive Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver on charges of fraud against the United States. A few days later, the Chinese government detained two Canadians, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, on charges of espionage, which Canada denounced as fraud. (Kovrig and Spavor were released nearly three years later, after the US dropped its extradition request for Meng.)
Diplomatic disputes have soured relations and created deep mistrust between Ottawa and China. But as President Donald Trump escalates his trade war with one of America’s closest allies, Canada is looking for some common ground with its longtime enemy.
The tide began to turn early last month, when Canada’s top diplomat Anita Anand traveled to Beijing to meet with diplomat Wang Yi. Prime Minister Mark Carney and leader Xi Jinping then met on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Conference held in South Korea, marking the first meeting between the leaders of the two countries in eight years.
The 40-minute meeting marked a “turning point” for Canada and China, with the two countries pledging to improve ties and trade cooperation, and Carney also revealed plans for President Xi to visit China, according to a Canadian statement after the meeting.
This discussion was followed by another visit to China by ministers and a telephone conversation by senior officials. China also reinstated Canada on its list of group travel permits, a move expected to boost tourism for the North American country.
But as leaders in Ottawa and Beijing suggest it may be time to get back to business, some experts are warning that China may be seeking to exploit Canada at a vulnerable time.
China wants to drive a “huge wedge between Canada and the United States,” Kovrig said. Since his release from Chinese custody, Kovrig has continued to work as a senior adviser to the Crisis Group.
“The last thing China wants is for a strong, united West to try to rein in its global ambitions.”
Both sides have economic incentives to get along.
Last year, Canada jointly with the United States imposed a 100% tax on Chinese-made electric vehicles to protect its domestic market due to unfair competition from state-subsidized Chinese automakers.
Then, in March, China announced retaliatory tariffs on Canadian agricultural and food products, including a 100% tax on canola oil and meal. In August, China added a 75.8% tariff on rapeseed seeds, hurting Canadian farmers and effectively shutting down Canada’s second-largest rapeseed market.
Meanwhile, the United States is increasingly intensifying its economic war against its northern neighbor. Trade talks between Mr. Trump and Mr. Carney appeared to be making progress last month when Mr. Trump abruptly halted negotiations again after controversial anti-tariff ads by the government of Ontario, Canada’s most populous province.
The United States has now emerged as Canada’s biggest economic threat, and Canada can no longer afford a trade war with the world’s two largest economies. For many, this made China a more attractive prospect.
Lynette Ong, director of the China Governance Laboratory at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of International Affairs, said Canada’s attitude toward China has “taken a 180-degree turn” in recent months.
“What we’ve seen so far is the articulation of some kind of different set of intentions towards China, an intention to very fundamentally rethink the relationship with China,” Ong said. “This is a big change that was born out of necessity.”
Doug Ford, Ontario’s premier and one of President Trump’s most vocal critics north of the border, called on Canada to improve relations with China at a meeting of premiers in July.
The Chinese government has said it will lower tariffs on rapeseed if Ottawa takes similar action on Chinese electric vehicles.
“The enemy of my enemy is my friend, and I don’t consider Americans to be my enemy, but at this point President Trump himself is acting as if he is the enemy,” Ford said, according to the Canadian Press.
The public seems to agree. A recent poll found that Canadians are more likely to say the United States (46%) should be treated as a threat than China (34%). However, most Canadians still view China negatively.
“The obvious strategy here would be to look for other dance partners if you are locked out of key export markets and subject to significant punitive tariffs in some key areas,” said Professor Fenn Hampson of Carleton University in Canada’s capital.
Still, if Ottawa aligns with China, it risks further isolating Washington, Hampson said.
“What the leaders are working on here is a bit of a Rubik’s Cube.”
drive a wedge between the United States and its allies
Facing pressure to expand China’s exports, Mr. Xi is showing favor to Western countries and other U.S. allies in a way not seen in the past eight years, Mr. Ong said.
He noted a rare candid moment between Xi and President Lee Jae-myung at APEC last month, adding: “Xi is much more relaxed than before. He even managed to joke with the South Korean president about backdoor technology.”
Brian Wong, an assistant professor at the University of Hong Kong, said China has taken a “more conciliatory and flexible approach to foreign policy” since President Trump returned to the White House.
Wong said Chinese officials are “positioning themselves not only for a desire to project strength but also to build friendships among America’s long-time partners and allies who have felt alienated by Washington’s erratic, capricious and sometimes duplicitous moves in recent months.”
Wong said Beijing is closely monitoring developments in Ottawa and Washington and recognizes that “the conflict between the two long-time economic partners could run deeper than the surface.”
While some experts see an opportunity for Canada to re-engage with China, others are cautious.
Ong said there may be a way for Canada to serve its interests by acting as a kind of “middle ground” between the United States and China.
“Canada has some advantages because of its geographic location,” she added.
Kovrig said Xi’s public embrace of Carney would send a message to China’s top-down bureaucracy that it was okay to do business with Canada again, adding that it was no longer in China’s interest for Canada to be in the “doghouse.”
But any cooperation comes with conditions, Kovrig said.
“China is trying to condition access to senior leadership and political cooperation on respect for what it calls its core interests,” he said, adding that China wants to silence any criticism from Canada over its human rights record, including on Taiwan, an autonomous island that Beijing claims as its own territory.
Hampson said this should be a message to the White House to “carefully consider” and consider the long-term geopolitical implications of its trade policies.
“If you stop recognizing economic relationships with your closest neighbors and trading partners, don’t be surprised if they start hedging their bets by doing business or striking deals with their major geopolitical rivals.”
