In recent months, US President Donald Trump has sharply escalated his attacks on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, accusing him of fueling drug trafficking and sparking mass immigration from the Caribbean nation to the US.
Recently, President Trump has increased pressure on Venezuela by building up military forces in the Caribbean in the name of a campaign to eradicate drug trafficking. Caracas said the US actions were rather aimed at overthrowing the Maduro regime.
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President Trump met with his national security team on Monday to discuss “next steps” regarding Venezuela, according to media reports. The US government’s continued deployment of military assets to the region has raised concerns about the possibility of war.
Last weekend, President Maduro told a crowd in front of the Miraflores presidential palace that he wanted peace with the United States, but on the following terms: “Sovereignty, equality, freedom… We don’t want peace for slaves, we don’t want peace for colonies! Colonies, absolutely! Slaves, absolutely!”
Is America going to war with Venezuela?
In recent weeks, President Trump acknowledged that he authorized the CIA to carry out covert operations in Venezuela. It also sent the world’s largest aircraft carrier, the Gerald R. Ford, thousands of troops, and F-35 military aircraft to the Caribbean.
On November 20, President Trump said a ground attack inside Venezuela could be imminent. But while some see the president’s comments and maneuvers as preparations for military action, Trump told reporters over the weekend not to read “anything into it” into his recent moves.
Venezuela has been conducting regular military drills over the past few weeks in preparation for any attack.
Why is President Trump hostile to President Maduro?
The U.S. government’s recent displays of force are reminiscent of a long history of military intervention across Latin America by successive U.S. governments, often motivated by fear of hostile forces close to U.S. borders.
Since the 1990s, relations between Washington and Caracas have been dominated by tensions related to Maduro’s leftist predecessor, Hugo Chávez. Relations between the two countries further deteriorated after Maduro came to power following Chavez’s death in 2013.
U.S. military strikes against suspected Venezuelan drug smugglers in the Caribbean have dominated bilateral relations in recent months.
In July, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio accused Maduro of being the “leader of the designated ‘narcoterrorist’ organization Cartel de los Soles” and responsible for “drug trafficking to the United States and Europe.” He provided no evidence to support his claims.
Furthermore, experts say that Cartel de los Soles is not a cartel.
President Maduro has accused Washington of plotting regime change and using the drug offensive as a pretext to seize Venezuelan oil.
What action has the Trump administration taken?
The United States has amassed 15,000 troops and deployed an aircraft carrier to the region.
Since September, it has carried out at least 21 airstrikes against suspected drug smuggling vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific Ocean, killing up to 83 people.
Meanwhile, military experts say the US firepower amassed in the Caribbean far exceeds what is needed for drug-trafficking operations, while the city of Caracas says the US is seeking regime change to seize control of Venezuela’s vast natural resources, including oil.
Last week, a Delaware judge ordered the sale of Venezuelan oil company Citgo, a Houston-based subsidiary of state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA), to pay off billions of dollars in unpaid debt.
Venezuela on Tuesday condemned the “forced sale” of the oil company ordered by the United States, which would deprive the country of vital overseas revenue.
Elsewhere, President Trump declared Venezuelan airspace “closed” on Nov. 29. President Trump’s comments followed a warning from the US Federal Aviation Administration about “potentially dangerous conditions” in Venezuelan airspace.
Despite professing to oppose “forever wars,” President Trump’s recent moves in Venezuela, including threats of military attack, show he is ready to escalate tensions.
Are boat strikes legal?
Many legal scholars have condemned the U.S. attack in international waters as illegal under both international and domestic law. Congress is investigating whether a second attack on an alleged drug smuggling ship in September killed any survivors of the first attack. The White House defended the deadly attack.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the US attack on the ship was a “violation of international law”. He expressed concern about rising tensions between the United States and Venezuela.
Who are Venezuela’s main allies?
Venezuela’s main political allies are united by a common resistance to US influence in the region. Russia remains its strongest geopolitical backer, providing military cooperation and diplomatic support. China, Venezuela’s biggest source of oil exports, is also providing economic support.
Venezuela and Iran are also deepening ties, sharing an anti-Western worldview and seeking alternative economic and diplomatic routes despite facing sanctions.
In Latin America, Venezuela relies on long-standing ideological allies such as Cuba, Nicaragua and Bolivia. These governments have consistently championed Caracas in regional institutions and maintained close ties through frameworks such as ALBA-TCP and Petrocaribe.
Brazil and neighboring Colombia are ruled by left-wing governments that do not recognize President Maduro’s re-election in 2024. However, they have expressed concern about military threats to Venezuela.
Why isn’t Venezuela rich?
Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, estimated at 303 billion barrels in 2023. However, its crude oil exports in the same year amounted to just $4 billion, far below that of other oil-producing countries, largely due to U.S. sanctions imposed during the Trump administration’s first term.
The country’s oil production is dominated by PDVSA, which faces challenges including aging infrastructure, lack of investment, mismanagement and the impact of sanctions, all of which are limiting its ability to make the most of Venezuela’s vast reserves.
Venezuela’s crude oil exports were worth just $4.05 billion in 2023, according to data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC). This is significantly lower than other major exporters such as Saudi Arabia ($181 billion), the United States ($125 billion) and Russia ($122 billion).
Sanctions also increased the price of imported goods. The country is suffering from shortages and rampant inflation, which the IMF predicts will reach 600% next year. US sanctions have exacerbated the economic crisis, forcing millions of people to flee to neighboring countries in recent years.
Venezuela’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 will be $119.8 billion, ranking it as one of the smallest economies in Latin America. Venezuela’s economic instability is rooted in years of harsh sanctions and dependence on oil.
What was the international reaction?
On November 30, President Maduro called on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to help his country counter the “growing illicit threat” posed by the Trump administration.
“I look forward to their best efforts to stop this growing act of aggression,” Venezuelan President Maduro said in a letter to OPEC members. So far, no OPEC member state has publicly reacted.
On November 25, Colombian President Gustavo Petro told CNN that President Trump “doesn’t care about drug trafficking, and he doesn’t care about democracy in Venezuela.” He added that only a small portion of the world’s drug trade passes through Caribbean countries.
What happens next?
On Nov. 17, President Trump was asked about the possibility of sending U.S. troops into Venezuelan territory, and he told reporters at the White House, “I won’t rule that out. I won’t rule anything out. We’ll just take care of Venezuela.”
And on Monday, Reuters reported that Trump offered Maduro a safe exit from Venezuela during a November 21 phone call. President Maduro reportedly told President Trump that he was willing to leave Venezuela if he and his family received a full legal pardon.
The Venezuelan president also reportedly called for the lifting of sanctions against more than 100 Venezuelan government officials, many of whom have been accused by the United States of human rights abuses, drug trafficking, corruption, and other charges.
Trump rejected most of his demands in the phone call, but told Maduro he had one week to leave Venezuela with his family for their desired destination. However, Al Jazeera was unable to independently verify this report.
