AI robots will outnumber the workforce within decades as more companies hire AI agents and continue to squeeze costs, a former Citi executive warned on Monday. Rob Garlick, former head of innovation, technology and the future of work at Citi Global Insights, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” that human workers will be ignored as leaders continue to prioritize profitability. “We have a leadership system that focuses on profitability, both economically and business-wise,” Garlick said in a conversation with CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick and Ben Boulos. “Combining profitability with technological advances will usher in the greatest trade in history. Essentially, artificial intelligence will be able to do more and more things, better, cheaper, and in place of humans.” Garlick, who recently authored “AI – Anarchy or Abundance? Why the Future of Work Needs Humanistic Leaders,” says that previous research at Citi has shown that AI as a result of these business decisions He explained that the number of robots has been shown to increase rapidly. “Over the next few decades, there will be more robots working than people in the workforce, and then agents will be added bit by bit until there’s an explosion,” he added. A 2024 report from Citi, led by Garlick, predicts that AI robots, from humanoids to household cleaning robots to self-driving cars, will grow to 1.3 billion by 2035. According to insights, the number of AI robots is expected to rapidly increase to more than 4 billion by 2050. Citi’s report also measures how long it takes for a robot to pay for itself in money saved by replacing a human worker; for example, a $15,000 robot would break even in 3.8 weeks for a $41-an-hour human job and 21.6 weeks for a $7.25-an-hour human job. On the other hand, if the robot costs $35,000, the payback period for a human job that pays $41 an hour is 8.9 weeks. “Humanoid robots can already be purchased today, with a payback period of less than 10 weeks compared to human workers,” Garlick told CNBC, citing numbers from his book. “Humans can’t compete with this.” The Rise of AI Agents According to Microsoft’s Work Trend Index report, 80% of leaders expect AI agents to be largely integrated into their company’s AI strategy within the next 12 to 18 months. An AI agent is a type of software program that can make decisions and complete tasks without much human input. Meanwhile, Bob Sternfels, global managing partner at McKinsey & Company, said in an interview with Harvard Business Review that the firm currently employs 20,000 agents and 40,000 people. A year ago, the company had just 3,000 agents, and Sternfels predicts there will be an equal number of employees and agents 18 months from now. Tesla CEO Elon Musk echoed this sentiment at the World Economic Forum’s flagship conference in Davos last month, saying AI is likely to surpass human intelligence by the end of this year. “My prediction is that in a benign future scenario, we will actually create so many robots with AI that they will actually saturate all of humanity…My prediction is that there will be more robots than humans, so there will be a tremendous abundance of goods and services,” Musk said. Concerns about AI replacing workers have grown over the past year, with major companies such as Amazon, Salesforce, Accenture, Heineken, and Lufthansa citing the technology as part of their reason for eliminating thousands of roles. Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, told CNBC in January that AI was “hitting the labor market like a tsunami” and warned that “most countries and businesses are not prepared for it.” AI will contribute to about 55,000 layoffs in the U.S. in 2025, according to December data from consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. But some leaders are taking a more positive stance. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang predicts that the “AI boom” will result in six-figure salaries for workers building AI and chip factories. Huang said the technology will facilitate skilled trade jobs such as plumbers, electricians, construction and steelworkers.
