Venezuela, Iran and Greenland are part of President Trump’s US-China strategy

In 10 days, Donald Trump captured the president of Venezuela, stunned European leaders with talk of annexing Greenland, and imposed a 25% tariff on anyone trading with Iran. The common denominator could be the US’ determination to challenge China and its control of critical minerals.

By ousting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and taking over the country’s oil industry, the United States could curb China’s access to vital resources and mining investments. Annexing Greenland would lock out rivals from new trade routes and possibly mineral extraction. By imposing tariffs on those who trade with Iran, the United States could impose penalties on both the Middle Eastern country and countries that buy oil from China, as protests threaten the survival of the Iranian regime.

“The relationship here is a U.S.-China conflict and, to a lesser extent, a U.S.-Russia strategic friction,” Dan Alamarieu, chief geopolitical strategist at Alpine Macro, told CNBC in an email.

“The United States simply doesn’t want China, Russia, or even Iran operating out of Venezuela. While it doesn’t want China’s economic influence in Greenland, it wants to counter Russia’s expansion into the Arctic, and it wants to weaken Iran and Venezuela, which are friendly to China and Moscow.”

Russia and China are attracted to Greenland because a warming Arctic is melting ice sheets and making the island’s vital minerals increasingly mineable, Gai Chioni, CEO of consultancy Misang, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on January 12.

As a result, political and commercial interest in the Danish Dominion has increased in recent years. Critical minerals are needed for everything from electric vehicles to aerospace and defense, while new trade routes are also emerging, known as the Arctic Silk Road.

Alamarieu added that Washington is determined to deny such “strategic locations” and resources to its rivals.

China has a near monopoly on rare earths. According to the International Energy Agency, the company controls 60% of the world’s mining and more than 90% of its processing capacity.

At the moment, the country has “untapped advantages,” Chioni said. “Without energy, that advantage diminishes,” he said, noting that annexing Greenland would give the United States access to abundant green energy and help “balance China.”

Chioni added that U.S. actions against Venezuela and Iran, two countries that supply China with oil, are aimed at limiting China’s energy supplies, and processing rare earths is energy-intensive.

Cheap Venezuelan oil – up to 50 million barrels of which is expected to flow into the US – could help the US government secure its own processing capacity.

Alamalew said building rare earth processing capacity is more important for the United States than mining rare earths. “Greenland is important in this context, but it’s not a make-or-break,” he said, adding: “To be a great power, we need cheap electricity.”

“Neither Venezuela nor Iran are major producers of rare earths, but they are clearly major energy countries,” Alamarieu said, adding that both countries have “insignificant” mining industries.

President Trump is encouraging U.S. companies to re-enter Venezuela and invest $100 billion. Chinese companies, many of which are state-owned, have invested $4.8 billion in the South American country over the past two decades, according to data compiled by U.S.-based research firm Rhodium Group. The Chinese government also lends cash to Caracas, meaning US intervention puts Caracas’ investments at risk.

China is also investing heavily in Africa, which is rich in mineral resources. But Chioni said the continent is far from the United States and may not be a U.S. target due to China’s existing presence.

“Greenland is completely different. It’s geographically close to the United States, so it’s important for the United States not only to partner with it, but also to control the territory,” he said.

The United States established a significant mineral framework with the Democratic Republic of the Congo in December. Chioni said something similar for Greenland could be the outcome of Wednesday’s talks between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the Danish leader representing Greenland.

Australia and Malaysia also have agreements with the United States on critical minerals, but the allies will be closely monitoring events in Greenland.

So far, markets have largely shrugged off threats of military force. Doing that to other NATO members would make U.S. allies, including countries in Asia, question the benefits of the alliance, Alamariu said.

“What is the benefit of an ally claiming a piece of territory? If pursued, this would likely lead to the loss of a key ally and significantly weaken the United States’ global power,” he said.

Alamariu said the move against Venezuela is as much about removing “non-American powers from the Western Hemisphere” as it is agitating for the annexation of Greenland, which is “potentially much more dangerous and very controversial.”

Although Iran is far away, China is Iran’s largest trading partner. President Trump’s tough stance on Iran is partly about oil in the Middle East – “China imports most of its energy from the Persian Gulf” – but also about its nuclear and missile capabilities, its support for movements the United States has designated as terrorists, its push for regional hegemony and its longstanding enmity with the United States, Alamarieu said.

“The fact that Iran is geopolitically close to Russia and China is another reason,” he added.

He said the U.S.-China conflict was a “major thread” in President Trump’s actions, adding that it was “increasingly defining the geopolitical and geoeconomic environment. We live in an emerging bipolar world.”

But while the United States seeks to contain or counter Chinese influence, it does not seek direct conflict with China, Alamarieu said, adding that a detente and summit between Presidents Trump and Xi is widely expected to take place this year.

He added that there was still a chance of detente. However, the announcement of tariffs on Iran’s trading partners could force China to choose between access to the US market and its allies, potentially “giving up” on political deals between the two superpowers.

Laura D. Taylor-Kale, former assistant secretary of defense for industrial base policy and now senior fellow for geoeconomics and defense at the Council on Foreign Relations, said tariffs could be a way for the U.S. to reduce China’s rare earth influence in trade negotiations.

“I don’t think the president likes to have other people having leverage over him in negotiations, so any move toward more independence and having both mining and processing capacity domestically or with close allies and partners will definitely be part of that,” she said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Jan. 13.

“How long will it take? That’s a different question,” she added