Venezuelans living in Colombia celebrate by waving Venezuelan and U.S. flags in Plaza Bolivar after U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. had attacked Venezuela and detained President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, on January 3, 2026 in Bogotá, Colombia.
Andres Galeano | Reuters
Venezuela’s stock market not only ignored the U.S. military’s detention of former President Nicolas Maduro, but also soared to record highs as investors bet that the battered economy would finally turn around.
The country’s benchmark index Bursatil de Capitalización (IBC) has risen more than 130% since the January 3 US operation.
Analysts said the gains reflected optimism that Venezuela’s economy could stabilize after years of misgovernment, sanctions and defaults, raising hopes that a reorganized government could attract capital, revive oil production and normalize relations with the United States.
And investors are getting in on the action, too. U.S. ETF issuer Techurium filed on Friday with the Securities and Exchange Commission to create what it says is the first exchange-traded fund focused on companies with exposure to Venezuela.
“In a fluid environment, we currently believe that Venezuela is likely to experience regime continuity through behavioral recalibration, rather than a full democratic transition or regime collapse,” BMI said in a note. “If Venezuela is compliant, the United States could strengthen its regional hegemony and secure access to the oil sector on very favorable terms.”
“Investors are starting to factor in Maduro’s removal from power as a precondition for sanctions relief and, ultimately, a restructuring agreement,” said Anthony Symonds, investment director at UK-based asset and investment firm Aberdeen.
Simond said there was demand from a wide range of investors, including mainstream emerging market asset managers as well as hedge funds and distressed loan specialists looking for asymmetric upside.
But it’s important to note that Venezuela’s stock exchange is small, illiquid and not easily accessible to global investors, so price fluctuations can be extreme, strategists said. Venezuela’s IBC soared 1,644% in 2025.
“Venezuela’s market is thinly traded, so even small changes in expectations can cause large price movements,” Alice Blue, a general broker at financial charting platform TradingView, wrote in a note. “This increase reflects hope and speculation, not a confirmed result.”
Investors have also flooded the country’s sovereign debt and state oil company bonds since President Maduro was detained. Jeff Grylls, head of U.S. cross-market and emerging market fixed income at Aegon Asset Management, said the renewed interest in Venezuelan bonds is largely due to optimism around potential debt restructuring, which development investors see as a way to regain value frozen since Venezuela’s 2017 default.
Grylls cautioned that much of the stock’s rise was headline-driven. “At this stage, this gathering appears to be primarily tactical rather than the beginning of a structural reassessment,” he said, noting that a change in leadership alone is not yet a complete transition.
Van Eck portfolio manager Eric Fein said Venezuela’s external debt, including arbitration claims and bilateral debt (estimated at $150 billion to $170 billion by Reuters), complicates any recovery schedule.
“It all depends on whether it derails or not. (But) if that becomes a reality, this is a complete reassessment situation,” he said.
