Vessels underway, waiting, or changing course

As the Middle East conflict enters its third week, Iran’s de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is raising fears it could cause the biggest disruption to global oil supplies in history.

The blockade has sharply reduced shipping traffic, with just 21 tankers passing through the route since the war began on February 28, compared with more than 100 daily before the conflict, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Most ships appear to have taken up positions outside Hormuz, leaving thousands of sailors stranded on ships in the Gulf. Some are looking for ways to diversify to alternative ports.

A report by maritime intelligence firm Windward on Sunday said around 400 ships were seen sailing in the Gulf of Oman, with a large number of demurred ships waiting near choke points.

Maritime analysts say Iran maintains a firm grip on the strait, but a small number of other ships have passed through it under various circumstances, indicating that Tehran is selectively allowing some non-Iranian oil cargoes to pass through negotiated safe passages.

Here’s a look at some of the countries that have routed vital energy routes to ships since the war began.

The Iranian government has largely avoided targeting ships with ties to China. According to Windward news agency, dozens of ships broadcasting their AIS (Automatic Identification System) destinations mentioned Chinese ownership or the presence of crew members while sailing in the Gulf.

“This pattern suggests a possible unofficial access filter in which vessels suggesting Chinese ownership or crew may be attempting to signal neutrality or avoid targeting in the current conflict environment,” Windward analysts said in a report last week.

The Chinese government is reportedly in talks with Iran to allow crude oil and Qatari liquefied natural gas carriers to pass through the strait. Iran has continued to ship millions of barrels of crude oil to China since the war began.

According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, a total of 11 Chinese-related vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz between March 1 and March 15, the majority of them general cargo vessels, although tankers operated by mainstream Chinese owners continued to avoid the route. Earlier this month, Chinese state-owned Cosco Shipping suspended all new bookings for routes to and from ports in the Middle East.

However, ships that advertise their affiliation with China do not always guarantee safe passage.

On March 12, a Chinese-owned ship, which was broadcasting “China Owner” over AIS while underway, was hit by debris while sailing from the Middle East Gulf to Jebel Ali in the United Arab Emirates, and further Chinese sailings have since been discouraged, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence.

The Greek shipowner, run by Athens-based Dynacom Tankers Management, was one of the first mainstream operators to test the route.

The Liberian-flagged Suezmax tanker Shenron, managed by Dynacom, transited the Strait carrying about 1 million barrels of Saudi crude oil and arrived at its anchorage in Mumbai around March 8.

Another oil tanker, the Smirni, carrying Saudi crude, also sailed through the waterway and docked in Mumbai last week.

It is not yet clear whether the Smirni has been cleared for safe passage with its cargo bound for India, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence.

Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar said direct talks between Iran and Tehran were productive. “I’m currently engaged in dialogue with them and my dialogue is yielding some results,” he told the Financial Times earlier this week. “If we are seeing results, we would naturally continue to consider it.”

Two Indian ships carrying liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) under the Shipping Corporation of India were also allowed to pass, with one scheduled to arrive on Sunday and the second on Tuesday.

About 22 ships carrying crude oil, LPG and liquefied natural gas are anchored in the strait, awaiting confirmation of safe passage, CNBC said.

Just Monday, a Pakistani-flagged Aframax tanker carrying crude oil from Abu Dhabi became the first non-Iranian cargo ship confirmed to have passed through the chokepoint while transmitting its location, according to Marine Traffic, Kpler’s ship-tracking intelligence division.

This indicates that “some cargo may be passing safely through negotiations,” the paper said.

Turkish authorities also confirmed that one Turkish-owned vessel was allowed passage after calling at an Iranian port, while 14 more Turkish-owned vessels remain in the region awaiting permission.

However, the Strait of Hormuz remains virtually cut off from global energy flows as the Iranian government continues to carry out sporadic attacks on ships.

Maritime analysts said the attacks on ships in the Gulf were “random” and lacked a pattern, with the aim of sowing chaos and confusion rather than targeting any particular country or type of ship.

At least 16 ships were collided in waters near the UAE’s Fujairah port, Iraq’s Khor al-Zubair port and the Gulf of Oman, the International Maritime Organization said.

Windward said several of the targeted vessels had links to Western and Gulf states through ownership and state registrations, including links to the United States, the United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom.

Other affected vessels included those arriving from Thailand, Vietnam and Brazil, indicating “broad targeting of congested commercial shipping lanes rather than a narrow focus on one nationality or class of operator,” Windward analysts said.

Bridget Diakun, a senior risk compliance analyst at Lloyd’s List Intelligence, said in an interview with CNBC that there was no discernible pattern to the attacks and that “we don’t know the rationale for one ship attacking another, which makes it difficult for people trying to plan connections.”

Shipowners are also scrambling to secure alternative routes, emergency ports and inland transport networks, causing cascading congestion across the region’s secondary hubs.

According to Kupler, about 81 container ships headed to ports along the Strait of Hormuz when the war began. Since then, 43 ships have been rerouted to other ports in the Gulf, and the rest have bypassed the region entirely.

Cargo is transferred to ports outside the strait, particularly Fujairah and Khor Fakkan in the UAE, and Sohar in Oman, before being transported by truck to its destination.

—CNBC’s Seema Mody contributed to this report.