Tel Aviv, Israel
—
Specks of orange light spread across the night sky as air raid sirens blare in the background.
It’s a disturbing picture that has become a hallmark of the war, as Iran increasingly equips some of its ballistic missiles with cluster munitions aimed at penetrating Israel’s sophisticated air defenses.
The specks of light are small bombs, each carrying up to 11 pounds of explosives, that are released from the missile’s head at high altitude and then rain down indiscriminately over a wide area. Experts say most of Iran’s ballistic missiles carry around 24 submunitions, but one of Iran’s weapons, the Khorramshahr, can carry up to 80 submunitions.
A CNN analysis of two separate cluster munitions attacks by Iran found that multiple impacts spread over a seven-mile and eight-mile radius, respectively, and fell randomly on homes, businesses, roads, and parks.
Israeli citizens are relatively well protected by early warning in advance of ballistic missile attacks, and air raid shelters are widely accessible. Still, a submunitions bomb killed two people and injured many others last week on the outskirts of Tel Aviv. Both men were construction workers and were not in a shelter or protected area at the time of the attack.
Because cluster munitions are by definition indiscriminate, their use against populated areas is prohibited under international humanitarian law. There are several types of cluster munitions, including bombs dropped from aircraft and multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) that can disperse hundreds of small projectiles.
Amnesty International previously condemned Iran’s use of cluster munitions during the 12-day war last June as a “clear violation of international humanitarian law”. Human rights groups have accused Israel of similar violations in its past use of cluster munitions in Lebanon in 2006. Israel has acknowledged using cluster munitions in the past, but insists they do so in accordance with international humanitarian law. Iran has not responded to CNN’s request for comment on its use of cluster munitions.
Iran now appears to have more ballistic missiles equipped with cargo warheads capable of carrying cluster submunitions than in previous conflicts with Israel. Israeli military officials said about half of the ballistic missiles fired at Israel during the war were equipped with cluster munitions.
The munition has successfully intercepted most ballistic missiles, but its small size and relatively short interception time poses a new and significant challenge for Israel’s air defense, which struggles to stop submunitions.
“This is a mechanism to circumvent active missile defense,” said Tal Inbar, a missile expert who consults with Israeli defense companies.
Mr. Inbar said that in some cases, Iranian ballistic missiles could be successfully intercepted by Israeli long-range interceptors, but submunitions would still be deployed because the missiles were not hit head-on or because they had already been launched.
Inbar said submunitions could be intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system, which targets short-range missiles and other projectiles, but such interception attempts are not always successful.
“Iranian designers likely looked to a high-altitude dispersion approach to minimize the chance of a successful ground-based interception,” said N.R. Jenzen-Jones, a munitions expert and director of the Weapons Research Service, adding that the munitions are small and fall at high speeds. “Although other Russian and Chinese munitions have adopted a similar approach, the Iranian example appears to disperse a relatively small number of submunitions over a wider target area, resulting in a militarily inefficient design.”
In previous conflicts with Israel, Iran has launched large numbers of missiles, dozens at a time, to overwhelm Israel’s air defenses. But as the United States and Israel attack Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, cluster munitions could provide another means for Iran to penetrate those defenses.
“I don’t think Iran currently has the ability to organize a large barrage of ballistic missiles,” Inbar said. “So if Iran wants to cause a lot of damage, even with a small number of ballistic missiles, submunitions with submunitions would be the weapon of choice.”
But Iran’s use of cluster munitions may be intended not only to slip small bombs past Israeli air defenses, but also to reduce Israel’s inventory of anti-missile weapons and launch dozens of them to eliminate the threat of a single missile.
“It’s a challenge,” Inbar said. “The number of missiles in Iran is equal to the number of interceptors…in Israel, in Abu Dhabi, in Qatar, for example.”
The impact on the construction site that killed two men was one of five confirmed by CNN from the March 9 missile attack, which spanned more than eight miles. A person walking on the street in a neighboring town was also injured.
The previous day, another ballistic missile fired a ballistic missile across 11 kilometers (11 kilometers) north of Tel Aviv and nearby suburbs, hitting a car wash, several residential areas and a park.
“The technical characteristics inherent in these particular combinations of missiles and submunitions strongly suggest that they are weapons developed primarily to instill fear in civilian populations, rather than weapons with a clear military purpose,” Jenzen-Jones said.
The Israeli military and Home Front Command are increasingly trying to educate the Israeli public about the dangers of these submunitions, asking people to remain in shelters for several minutes after the sirens have died down until the situation clears up. They also point out the dangers of getting close to unexploded ordnance.
“The impact is similar to the explosion of a grenade, causing relatively limited local damage but extremely dangerous for those nearby,” the Israeli military said in a statement. “These submunitions can spread over a wide area and cause widespread damage.”
But the real danger for Israel may lie in Iran’s broader strategy, as the Islamic Republic increasingly appears to be pursuing a war of attrition.
Iran could send millions of Israelis into air raid shelters with a single missile, especially one equipped with cluster munitions, and Israel and the United States would continue to use their finite supplies of expensive anti-missile equipment.
“The continued use of these weapons is likely intended primarily to have a repressive and psychological effect, with Iran seeking to weaken Israel’s resolve and impose economic and social costs by forcing people to continue to evacuate its attacks,” Jenzen-Jones said.
