Groundhog weather icon Punxsutawney Phil saw the shadow of a groundhog on Monday morning when he was plucked from his warm burrow and thrust into the frigid air. Phil says that means six more weeks of winter.
Every February 2, on Groundhog Day, rodents across the United States take on the challenge of long-range weather forecasting.
Phil is the most famous prophet of them all and lives in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. Legend has it that if you see his shadow, six more weeks of winter will come. Otherwise, spring will come early.
In reality, the astronomical winter will end on March 20 at 10:46 a.m. ET on the Vernal Equinox, also known as the Vernal Equinox, regardless of Monday’s predictions. However, weather conditions do not always go according to schedule. So is Phil.
Phil has been predicting the weather since the late 1800s, and it’s said that Phil was always alone. Let’s do the math.
Despite being said to be the world’s most experienced weather forecaster, Phil’s recent predictions would give him a better track record with just a flip of a coin. Data analyzed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows that over the past 20 years, he has been right only 35% of the time.
Last year, Phil’s call for six more weeks of winter failed. Temperatures in February 2025 ended up near normal despite several bouts of bitter cold, but March was the nation’s sixth warmest on record, according to NOAA data.
Phil has a more stable expert to turn to when he gets stuck.
Meteorologists at the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center create temperature and precipitation forecasts across the United States on timescales ranging from one week to more than a year.
Their outlook for February is a bit mixed. Colder-than-normal conditions are expected across much of the East. Warmer-than-average “early spring” conditions are expected in the Western Plains and Southern Plains.
But long-range forecasts are notoriously complex, even with forecasting tools, and the rest of the country has an almost even chance of experiencing warmer, colder, or near-normal temperatures, creating confusion.
This winter in the United States so far has been a tale of two seasons.
East of the Rocky Mountains, a brutal cold snap has gripped the eastern half of the United States, making it actually feel like winter. Some regions in the Great Lakes, Northeast and mid-Atlantic regions are experiencing one of the 10 coldest winters on record, NOAA data shows.
At times, the cold was life-threatening. It also produced a historic winter storm that brought devastating ice to parts of the South and buried many northern states.
See in photos: Monster winter storm hits US
But from the Rocky Mountains to the West Coast, winter is nowhere to be found. About 150 regions, including Phoenix and Las Vegas, are experiencing their warmest winters on record.
Warm winters, even if seasonally cold, are no fluke. As global temperatures rise due to global warming caused by fossil fuel pollution, winter is the warmest season in nearly 75% of the United States.
In a warming world, brutal cold snaps and extreme winter storms are still possible, but they are the exception, not the norm.
With that in mind, Phil’s prediction of six more weeks of winter isn’t quite right.
