In a stunning geopolitical reversal, on October 29, the United States abruptly lifted sanctions on Bosnian Serb leader and genocide denier Milorad Dodik. Milorad Dodik is known as a Kremlin ally who has long undermined Bosnia and Herzegovina’s sovereignty. This decision goes against long-standing U.S. policy and, interestingly, coincides with the start of direct trade between Russia and the Bosnian Serb entity Republika Srpska.
Russia has long treated Belgrade as the sole authority representing all Serbs in the region, but it recently seriously undermined Serbia’s authority by recognizing Dodik as the legitimate representative of Bosnia’s Serb population.
The Trump administration’s surprise move to lift sanctions on Dodik at a time when it is building a strategic relationship with Russia signals the possibility of a grand deal between world powers and raises worrying questions about what Washington got in return for effectively ceding half of Bosnia to Russian spheres of influence.
inexplicable reversal
The US unexpectedly lifted sanctions on Dodik and his network. This was a sudden and unexplained reversal of long-standing policy. The United States has targeted him for years in efforts to destabilize Bosnia, deny genocide, and push for secession. Removing him from the sanctions list appears to bless the denial of the Bosnian genocide and create a clear path to Bosnia’s disintegration.
This move creates a clear contradiction in US foreign policy.
Dodik is one of the Kremlin’s most visible allies in Europe, openly praising its ties with Moscow and defending Russia’s interests. But the United States continues to impose strong sanctions on many other people and entities it says have far weaker ties to Russia.
The troubling decision to lift sanctions against him exposes troubling contradictions in Washington’s approach to Russia and undermines the credibility of the country’s extensive sanctions regime.
Citing Dodik’s successful lobbying efforts as a reason for this reversal is weak and unpersuasive. Estimates put Dodik’s lobbying efforts in the United States at two to three times the $30 million he identified in 2017. But his spending still pales in comparison to the billions spent by other countries and interests that have consistently failed to achieve such impressive diplomatic victories.
Another theory for a U.S. policy shift involves Bosnia’s mineral wealth, particularly lithium. This follows a May 21, 2025 statement by Dodik publicly offering the Bosnian Serb organization’s mineral resources to the United States in exchange for recognition of Republika Srpska’s sovereignty.
However, this theory contains a logical flaw. If the United States’ main interest is lithium, then maintaining sanctions would allow it to have more direct control over the resource without having to give Dodik anything. This lack of explanation strongly suggests deeper, undisclosed geopolitical calculations at work, and raises worrying questions about the true cost of this sudden U.S. retreat.
Moscow rules Serbia
For some time now, Serbia has been moving westward away from Russia.
On August 29, 2024, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic announced a $3 billion deal with France to buy 12 Rafale fighter jets, signaling Belgrade’s transition to the Western security alliance.
In a joint press conference, French President Emmanuel Macron hailed the deal as “historic”, praised Serbia’s “strategic courage” and reaffirmed Europe’s future. This did not go unnoticed in Moscow either. In May 2025, Russia accused Serbia of stabbing Moscow in the back for selling weapons to Ukraine. Additionally, in July, the Kremlin accused Belgrade of considering joining Western sanctions against Russia.
The day before sanctions on Dodik were lifted, instead of courting Washington, he hugged Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Minsk. In a meeting with Dodik the day before U.S. sanctions against him were lifted, Moscow declared a new Balkans strategy that deliberately sidelined Serbia.
Back in September, Russia’s foreign minister described Dodik as the “legally elected president” of the Bosnian entity Republika Srpska. However, the official website of the Russian Foreign Ministry now describes Dodik as “the leader of Bosnian Serbs in Bosnia and Herzegovina.” This new designation serves multiple strategic purposes and signals a clear geopolitical shift.
First, it undermines Bosnia’s sovereignty by asserting Dodik’s authority as national rather than purely regional.
Second, it directly challenges Serbia’s ambitions, embodied in the concept of Srpski Svet (Serbian World), to act as the central patron of all Serbs, asserting instead Russia’s claim to be the final arbiter of Serb political affairs. Belgrade’s Srpski Svet reflects the Kremlin’s Russki Mir (Russian World) doctrine, both of which aim to unite ethnic and linguistic kinship under a transnational cultural identity. After all, these ideologies serve to expand political influence and justify interventions in neighboring countries under the pretext of protecting the diaspora.
The strongest signal of this change came from Dodik himself. He bluntly declared that Belgrade had no say in Republika Srpska and publicly despised Vučić. Referring to the insult, Vučić responded: “The other day in Banja Luka I saw you saying that no one from Belgrade will give you orders.”
Serbia has long positioned itself as the paternal guardian of all Serbs, and Republika Srpska operates firmly within that political orbit. Dodik’s statement shattered this dynamic, announcing that the Serb-majority establishment was now catering to a different set of patrons.
Moscow’s move openly split Dodik and Vucic, weakening Serbia’s power. This indicates that Russia will ignore the Serbian government and deal directly with the Bosnian separatists. This is the worst-case scenario for Vucic, who seeks to maintain ties with both Europe and Russia. This proves that his influence is no longer needed and that Russia is now working through Banja Luka rather than Belgrade, making Serbia significantly less important.
Moscow’s power struggle: annexing Europe’s sick heart
The US decision to lift sanctions effectively allows Moscow to accept Republika Srpska as a new Russian territory. Gone are the days of indirect influence. The Bosnian entity is now directly ruled from the Kremlin, fundamentally changing the balance of power in Europe.
Russia’s military base in the Balkans is also expanding. Russia maintains an unofficial base in Serbia, but is also likely to establish one in Banja Luka, currently the de facto capital of the Bosnian Serbs.
Located in the heart of Europe, Bosnia is itself shaped like a heart. For 30 years, the European Union has had the opportunity to heal Europe’s sick soul. The EU has failed because it is itself plagued by deep racism: Islamophobia and Russophobia. The cost of this hatred is now clear. Half of the heart of Europe, and thus half of Bosnia, would effectively become new Russian territory, and launching missiles from there would be much more efficient than from Kaliningrad.
The world chessboard: A tacit agreement between the US and Russia?
The sudden lifting of U.S. sanctions on Mr. Dodik, followed immediately by a strategic embrace with Mr. Lavrov, is best understood not as a failure of American policy but as a calculated move on the global chessboard. Lavrov’s masterstroke was to publicly empower Dodik at the direct expense of Belgrade, a clear signal to Serbia that its historical role as the main patron of Bosnian Serbs was over. In this new alignment, Moscow has demonstrated that it holds the keys to power in the Bosnian entity, Republika Srpska, and is a stark reminder that Serbia is the one who truly commands the loyalty of its supposed natural kin.
This power play exploits Serbia’s fundamental and unstable dilemma. The country is constantly torn between its economic and political ambitions for EU integration and its deep historical, cultural and religious ties to Russia. Mr. Lavrov’s move would tighten Russia’s noose and force Belgrade into a more submissive position.
This leads to the most disturbing theory: that U.S. acquiescence is part of an implicit trade-off between great powers. The timing and awkwardness of the sanctions lift suggest this is a strategic deal rather than a withdrawal. Washington may have accepted Russia’s expanding sphere of influence in the Balkans and deliberately abandoned its influence in Bosnia, perhaps in exchange for strategic concessions from Moscow in other areas related to Ukraine, the Middle East, or another area. This fits into an ironic historical pattern. Great powers often ignore local commitments in order to comply with their own secret agreements.
Unanswered questions and their aftermath
The sudden lifting of U.S. sanctions and Dodik’s immediate pivot to Moscow leaves one chilling question unanswered. The question is, what did the US government secure in exchange for effectively gifting half of Bosnia to Russia’s sphere of influence? This opaque deal sacrifices decades of principled policy in the Balkans for undisclosed geopolitical costs and undermines U.S. credibility and the fragile peace in Dayton.
The impact is clear. It is a dangerous sign that emboldened separatists, a destabilized Europe, and hard-won democratic norms are just the currency of a new great game that will leave allies betrayed and adversaries victorious.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial policy.
