Why the shift in France’s nuclear strategy is so important

“To be free, you must be feared. To be feared, you must be powerful,” French President Emmanuel Macron said in a landmark speech on nuclear deterrence this week.

France is one of only two nuclear powers in Europe and, unlike Britain, operates its nuclear weapons systems completely independent of the United States.

Macron’s speech on Monday was “the most important update of France’s nuclear deterrence policy in 30 years,” Bruno Tertley, deputy director of the Foundation for Strategic Studies, said in an X thread, as the United States and Israel continue to attack Iran and European leaders appear divided and sidelined in response.

Speaking in front of the Le Temeraire submarine from a naval base in Brittany, Macron gave a 45-minute speech in which he outlined what he called France’s new “forward deterrence” principle.

President Macron said France would increase the number of nuclear warheads and promised further cooperation with interested European allies.

He said several European countries, including Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden and Denmark, could take part in exercises of France’s air-launched nuclear capabilities, and that French nuclear bombers could be deployed to their air bases. President Macron also said France would stop disclosing the number of nuclear weapons it possesses.

“The world is becoming increasingly difficult, and recent events demonstrate this once again,” he said in his speech.

“We must strengthen our nuclear deterrence in the face of complex threats and consider deterrence strategies deep within the European continent, with full respect for sovereignty, through the progressive implementation of what I call forward deterrence.”

Yannick Pince, an associate professor of history at the Sorbonne Nouvelle University, told CNBC that the speech should be seen in the context of next year’s presidential election, which could be won by the far-right National Rally candidate.

“We needed to make a politically acceptable speech to announce measures that would be difficult to overturn next year,” Pince said.

“At the same time, he needed to gain enough trust among his allies. He was walking a tightrope. From my perspective, he succeeded pretty well.”

An independent nuclear deterrent has been a cornerstone of France’s national defense strategy for more than 60 years.

But President Macron said the doctrine must evolve with the threat. In 2020, President Macron hinted at change when he said France’s “vital interests” (though the definition remained intentionally vague) had taken on a “European dimension.”

President Macron said on Monday that the years since 2020 have been “heavy like decades, and the last few months have been like years.”

“Our competitors are evolving, our partners are evolving,” he said, adding that “the last few hours” of the escalating conflict in the Middle East have shown how “harsh” the world has become.

Macron cited the Ukraine war and the Russian threat, as well as China and the United States’ changing defense priorities.

In line with historic nuclear principles, Macron said the decision to use force “belongs solely to the President of the Republic” and rejected clear “guarantees” to partner countries.

Ankit Panda, Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, called the speech “remarkable.”

The speech marked the moment for “a new nuclear age in Europe, without abandoning the main pillars of France’s nuclear strategy and culture,” Panda wrote on his blog.

Daria Druzhikova, a senior researcher on nuclear proliferation and nuclear policy at the defense think tank RUSI, wrote in X that “some allies” may be “frustrated” with Macron’s refusal to compromise on operational independence.

“Germany would almost certainly have asked for more, but joint decision-making would never be on the table,” she wrote.

President Macron said the adapted doctrine “fully complements NATO doctrine, both strategically and technically.”

Pince said Macron’s speech was aimed at extending the principles of the Northwood Declaration, an agreement signed last year between Britain and France that put cooperation between Europe’s two nuclear powers on a more formal footing, to non-nuclear allies.

“It’s the right idea and the only way it’s really possible,” Pince added.

France and Germany subsequently issued a joint statement pledging “concrete measures this year,” including Germany’s participation in French nuclear exercises.

Macron’s speech, long planned, was updated to refer to the “ongoing war in the Middle East,” with Macron saying, “Iran has nuclear and ballistic capabilities that have not yet been destroyed and will carry and continue to carry the seeds of instability and potential conflagration to our borders.”

Forward deterrence has raised questions about financing, especially as France struggles to reduce its debt.

Pince said Macron referred to this by saying that all non-nuclear aspects of the new regime would be dealt with by allies. Mr. Pince described this as a “way of sharing the burden” without giving France’s allies access to anything that would raise questions about France’s involvement in decision-making regarding nuclear weapons.

Domestic criticism of this speech has been limited. “France must accept its role as a strategic power in Europe, engage in dialogue with its partners and contribute to the continent’s security,” Marine Le Pen, the National Assembly’s former presidential candidate, and Jourdan Bardera, the party’s next candidate, said in a statement.

“This is only possible by maintaining exclusive control over final decision-making,” they said.

The question is whether whoever wins next year’s election will continue the doctrine laid out by Mr. Macron.