President Donald Trump’s declaration that the United States would be “locked down and burdened” if Iranian security forces kill peaceful protesters was a particular blow. Less than 24 hours later, US special forces attacked Caracas, abducted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from his home and brought him to New York to stand trial on charges of “narcoterrorism.”
President Trump has shown that his regime can follow through on its threats against Venezuela, increasing psychological pressure on the Islamic Republic. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi criticized his remarks, calling them “reckless and dangerous.” Clearly, the Iranian government had been warned.
But Iran is not Venezuela. What happened in Caracas on Saturday could not actually happen in Tehran.
strong military infrastructure
The operational realities that made the invasion in Venezuela possible highlight why a similar intervention in Iran is simply impossible for the United States.
The CIA had been preparing for the operation in Caracas for six months. Intelligence agencies have people close to Mr. Maduro who helped track him down. Early Saturday morning, US fighter jets began airstrikes on military targets in and around Caracas. US special forces were then sent to abduct President Maduro from his residence.
What ensured the success of the operation was that Venezuela’s military was in disarray and that President Maduro had been largely abandoned by his allies Russia and China.
Six months ago, Iran made it clear that regime change was not an easy goal. During the 12-day conflict with Israel in June, Tehran’s weaknesses were exposed, but so was its resilience.
Despite an Israeli surprise attack that eliminated some of the most important leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and an Iranian nuclear scientist, and an Israeli psychological operation that threatened various officials and military officials with death if they did not defect, the Islamic Republic remained undeterred.
Even when the United States attacked Iran’s underground nuclear facilities with bunker-buster bombs, the regime remained unchallenged. In response, Iranian forces fired hundreds of missiles in retaliation, which were able to penetrate Israel’s Iron Dome and hit military targets.
This resilience derives from the regime’s self-imposed isolation from external shocks. The Revolutionary Guard’s vast business empire in construction, telecommunications, and exports is worth billions of dollars and gives its commanders-in-chief, regardless of their ideological foundations, a tangible personal interest in the survival of the regime.
Iran has the region’s largest military, numbering 1 million active and reservists. The Revolutionary Guards alone command at least 150,000 soldiers, many of whom are already battle-hardened in the Middle East. Then there is the Basij militia, which itself has hundreds of thousands of regular and reserve members.
Invading Iran will not be as easy as invading Venezuela. Considering Iran’s mountainous terrain and vast urban areas, it cannot be compared to Iraq.
Moreover, China and Russia are unlikely to abandon Iran, a far more important partner than Venezuela. They are likely to provide not only political support and cover, but also sophisticated intelligence and weaponry.
social disorder
Iran has been experiencing large-scale protests in recent days, fueled by economic hardship. But this may not be the opportunity the US and Israel think.
The disruption has not yet approached the level of the 2022 rally. The killings are excessive, with 20 protesters killed in the past few days, but there are still no visible cracks in the system. In the Revolutionary Guards, for example, there have been no defections that could destabilize the corps and ultimately lead to the collapse of the regime.
Furthermore, history shows that external invasions tend to unite societies rather than divide them. This became clear over the summer when Iranians were not fooled by Israeli incitement against their government.
Despite the repressive tactics, authorities in Tehran also acknowledged the protesters’ concerns. On Saturday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said the “bazaar protests… are legitimate” and the government “aims to resolve the issue.”
Make no mistake, the Iranian crisis is real. A severe economic downturn and inflation, disputes over Iran’s nuclear program, the deteriorating health of the supreme leader and questions about his succession could cause rifts in the system.
But these are slow-burning crises, not the kind of vulnerabilities that provided the basis for the Venezuela operation. The Iranian government has managed to withstand four decades of sanctions, conflict, and domestic turmoil because of its strong institutional framework, which allows it to weather tough times.
The Venezuelan intervention is therefore more an indication of the limits of US power than a model of what can be done in other countries like Iran. President Trump can isolate and eliminate individual leaders of already empty states like Venezuela. But he and his generals cannot control and transform a complex country like Iran. Such a project would undoubtedly lead to much more intense and prolonged chaos and bloodshed in the region than in Iraq.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance of Al Jazeera.
