NEW DELHI, India – When US President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with India this Monday, he vowed that New Delhi would divest from Russian energy as part of the deal.
Trump said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had promised to stop buying Russian oil and instead buy oil from the United States and Venezuela, where President Nicolas Maduro was abducted by U.S. special forces in early January. Since then, the United States has effectively controlled Venezuela’s huge oil industry.
In return, President Trump reduced trade tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to just 18%. Half of that 50% tariff was imposed last year as punishment for India’s purchases of Russian oil, which the White House claims is funding Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine.
However, since Monday, India has not publicly confirmed that it has halted purchases of Russian oil or committed to accepting oil from Venezuela, analysts said. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Tuesday that neither Russia nor India had received any indication on the matter.
And switching from Russian oil to Venezuelan oil will not be easy. Other factors, such as energy market shocks, cost, geography and the characteristics of different types of oil, will combine to complicate New Delhi’s decisions on oil sourcing, they say.
So can India really scrap Russian oil? And can Venezuelan oil replace it?
What is Trump’s plan?
President Trump has been pressuring India for months to stop buying Russian oil. After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the United States and the European Union placed oil price caps on Russian crude oil in an effort to limit Russia’s ability to finance the war.
As a result, other countries, including India, began buying large quantities of cheap Russian crude oil. Before the war, India procured only 2.5% of its oil from Russia, but it has become the second largest consumer of Russian oil after China. Currently, about 30% of its oil comes from Russia.
Last year, President Trump doubled trade tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 50% as punishment. Later that year, President Trump also imposed sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies and threatened secondary sanctions on countries and entities that do business with those companies.
Since President Maduro’s abduction by U.S. forces in early January, President Trump has effectively taken control of Venezuela’s oil sector and controlled sales cash flows.
Venezuela also has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, with an estimated 303 billion barrels, more than five times the size of the world’s largest oil producer, the United States.
But while having India buy Venezuelan oil makes sense from a U.S. perspective, analysts say it could lead to operational disruption.
How much oil does India import from Russia?
India currently imports nearly 1.1 million barrels of Russian crude oil per day, according to analysis firm Kpler. This is below the average production of 1.21 million barrels per day in December 2025 and more than 2 million barrels per day in mid-2025, amid increasing pressure from President Trump.
One barrel is equivalent to 159 liters (42 gallons) of crude oil. Once refined, a barrel typically produces about 73 liters (19 gallons) of gasoline for one car. Petroleum is also refined to make a variety of products, from jet fuel to household products such as plastics and lotions.
Has India stopped buying Russian oil?
India has reduced the amount of oil it buys from Russia over the past year, but has not stopped buying it completely.
Under increasing pressure from President Trump, Indian officials last August accused the US and EU of “hypocrisy” in pressuring New Delhi to divest from Russian oil.
“In fact, India started importing from Russia after the outbreak of the conflict as traditional goods were diverted to Europe,” Indian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said at the time. He added that India’s decision to import Russian crude oil was “aimed at ensuring predictable and affordable energy costs for Indian consumers.”
Nevertheless, Indian refiners, currently the second largest group of buyers of Russian oil after China, will reportedly end their purchases after fulfilling their current planned orders.
Major oil refiners such as Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL) and HPCLMittal Energy Limited (HMEL) have suspended purchases from Russia following US sanctions on Russian oil producers last year.
Other companies such as Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Oil Corporation and Reliance Industries are also planning to suspend purchases soon.
What would happen if India suddenly stopped buying Russian oil?
Analysts argue that even if India wanted to stop importing Russian oil completely, it would be costly.
In September last year, India’s oil minister Hardeep Singh Puri told reporters: It would also sharply drive up energy prices and accelerate inflation. “The world will face serious consequences if supplies are disrupted. The world cannot afford to exclude Russia from the oil market,” Puri said.
Analysts tend to agree. “A complete halt to India’s purchases of Russian oil would be a huge disruption. An immediate halt would send global prices soaring and threaten India’s economic growth,” said George Voloshin, an independent energy analyst based in Paris.
More Russian oil is likely to be diverted to China and to “shadow” tanker fleets that covertly transport sanctioned oil by flying false flags or switching off location devices, Voloshin told Al Jazeera. “Mainstream tanker demand will most likely shift to the Atlantic Basin, resulting in higher global freight rates,” he noted.
Sumit Pokarna, vice president at Kotak Securities, said Indian refineries have reported strong profits over the past two years, largely benefiting from discounts on Russian crude.
“If we move to higher-cost countries like the US or Venezuela, raw material costs will rise and margins will be squeezed,” he told Al Jazeera. “If it exceeds our control, we may have to pass on the excess to consumers.”
Can India completely stop buying Russian oil?
It may not be possible. Nayara Energy, one of India’s two private refiners, is majority-owned by Russia and is subject to severe Western sanctions. Russian energy company Rosneft owns 49.13% of the company and operates a 400,000 barrel per day refinery in India’s Gujarat state, Prime Minister Modi’s home state.
Nayara is the second-largest importer of Russian crude, purchasing about 471,000 barrels per day in January this year, accounting for nearly 40% of Russia’s supply to India.
The company’s factories have relied solely on Russian crude oil since European Union sanctions were imposed on the company last July.
According to Reuters, Nayara has no plans to load Russian crude oil in April as its refinery will be shut down for more than a month for maintenance starting April 10.
Pokharna said Nayara’s future was in question and that the United States was unlikely to grant India an explicit exemption from importing crude oil to the Russia-backed company.
Can India switch to Venezuelan oil?
India has traditionally been a major consumer of Venezuelan oil. At its peak in 2019, India imported $7.2 billion worth of oil, accounting for just under 7% of its total imports. The move stopped after the United States imposed sanctions on Venezuelan oil, but some employees of the government-owned oil and natural gas corporation are still based in the Latin American country.
Now, India’s leading refiners say they are open to accepting Venezuelan crude again, but only if it is a viable option.
First, Venezuela is roughly twice as far from India as Russia and five times as far as the Middle East, making transportation costs much higher.
Venezuelan oil is also expensive. “Russian Urals (medium-heavy crude blend) is trading at a wide discount to Brent at around $10-20 per barrel, while Venezuelan merey currently offers a smaller discount of around $5-8 per barrel,” Voloshin told Al Jazeera.
“Importing from Venezuela and waiving the Russian discount will be costly for India,” Pokarna said. “From transportation costs to discontinuation of discounts, this could cost India an additional $6 to $8 per barrel, which is a significant increase in import bills.”
Overall, Kupler said, a complete withdrawal from Russia could increase India’s imports by $9 billion to $11 billion a year, an amount roughly equal to India’s federal health budget.
“For Venezuelan oil to be competitive, it needs a discount of at least $10 to $12 per barrel,” Voloshin argued. “This significant discount is necessary to offset much higher transportation costs, increased insurance premiums associated with longer Atlantic voyages, and the slightly higher operating costs required to process Venezuela’s extra-heavy, high-sulfur crude oil.”
Additionally, without deep discounts, Venezuelan crude oil would be more expensive on a delivered basis due to longer journeys and more complex handling, he added.
Another major problem is that many Indian refiners do not have the equipment to process Venezuelan crude, which is very heavy.
Venezuelan crude oil is a heavy sour oil, thick and viscous, like molasses, with a high sulfur content and requires complex specialized refineries to process into fuel. Only a few Indian refineries are equipped to handle this.
“(The weight of Venezuelan crude) makes it an option only for complex refineries, excluding older and smaller refineries,” Pokarna told Al Jazeera. “This transition will be operationally difficult and will require blending with more expensive light crude oils.”
Then there’s the issue of availability. Currently, Venezuela’s production is barely 1 million barrels a day, even when pushed to its limits. Even if all production were sent to India, it would not be able to match Russia’s total oil imports.
Where else can India buy oil?
Indian Minister Puri said New Delhi is considering diversifying its sourcing options from around 40 countries.
India has reduced imports from Russia while increasing imports from Middle Eastern countries and other OPEC members. Currently, Russia accounts for nearly 27% of India’s oil imports, while OPEC countries, led by Iraq and Saudi Arabia, account for 53%.
India, reeling from President Trump’s trade war, is also increasing its purchases of US crude oil. US crude oil imports to India increased by 92% from April to November 2025 to nearly 13 million tonnes compared to 7.1 million tonnes during the same period in 2024.
However, India will be competing with the European Union for these supplies. The European Union has committed to spending $750 billion on U.S. energy and nuclear products by 2028.
Meanwhile, for Venezuela to return to higher production levels, Caracas needs political stability, changes to foreign investment and oil laws, and debt liquidation. Experts say that will take time.
