Women refrain from giving birth due to Russia’s war with Ukraine

The four-year war between Russia and Ukraine has begun to negatively impact the demographics of both countries, as the conflict prevents or prevents women from starting or growing families.

Although the effects of widespread reluctance to have children may not be immediately apparent, declining birth rates could have far-reaching economic and social consequences in the future.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022, Ukraine’s birth rate (the average number of births per woman) has plummeted, worsened by war, loss of partners and spouses due to combat, family separation, and mass migration.

According to UN population data, Ukraine’s total fertility rate was 1.22 in 2021, but it dropped to 1.00 in 2025. Others cite more dire indicators, with Ukrainian First Lady Olena Zelenska warning in December that the war and deteriorating security situation across Ukraine had caused this “serious decline”, with the country’s birth rate falling to between 0.8 and 0.9 children per woman.

In order for society to be replaced by the next generation without relying on migration, the total fertility rate needs to reach 2.1 children per woman.

In Russia, the birth rate has also been on a long-term decline due to the war. Russia’s birth rate in 2021 was 1.51, but by 2025 the number of children per woman had fallen to 1.37, down from 1.4 the previous year.

Ukraine and Russia are not the only countries experiencing declines in fertility and birthrates, the trend is seen in various countries in Europe and Asia, and the decline can be attributed to several factors, from career and lifestyle choices to economic constraints.

But while four years of war appear to be playing a major role in discouraging or preventing Ukrainian women from having children, women in Russia appear to be resisting repeated calls from the Kremlin and President Vladimir Putin to start larger families.

Declining birth rates have a ripple effect on economies and societies, and are a major problem for countries, as low births reduce the future workforce and reduce productivity and economic growth.

This means that as the population ages and becomes dependent on a shrinking workforce, governments will receive less tax revenue and put further strain on pension and health care systems.

Fertility and fertility rates (referring to the number of births per 1,000 people each year) have been declining since before the war, and Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea and support for pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine have influenced sentiment toward having children in these regions, Irina Ippolitova, a senior researcher at the Kiev-based Center for Economic Strategy, told CNBC.

The situation then worsened further with Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.

“In 2022, of course, the situation was made even worse due to this large-scale migration and the fact that the majority of those who left Ukraine were of working age and economically active,” she pointed out, adding:

“Many women who could theoretically have had children have left, and for those who remain, the war and uncertainty mean they are not ready to give birth in Ukraine, and the number of births is still declining.”

Ippolitova said that even if a peace deal were reached and the war ended, migration from Ukraine could continue, while people staying in Ukraine might refrain from starting families if they fear another invasion by Russia. This is another reason why Ukraine needs security as part of a peace agreement, she said.

Although birthrate trends are notoriously difficult to predict and baby booms are often seen after wars end, Ippolitova said the country’s low birthrate could continue to negatively impact Ukraine’s economy in the future.

Schools and universities have already begun to see a decline in student numbers, she said, suggesting a decline in the working-age population in the future.

“I think this is a big problem. We already have a labor shortage today, and it will get worse after the war…In 10 or 15 years, when people my age retire, there will be no one to replace them in the labor market,” Ippolitova said.

Ukraine is not alone in experiencing a decline in births despite being a wounded and invaded party of war. The same trend has been observed in Russia for decades, even though President Vladimir Putin has promoted large families as “traditional Russian values” and a patriotic duty.

The Russian state has introduced incentives such as lump sum grants, tax breaks and state benefits for women with three or more children. The Kremlin has revived the Soviet-era “Mother Heroine” award, giving women who give birth to 10 or more children a prize of 1 million rubles (about $13,000).

However, resistance to these incentives remains, with Russia recording 1.222 million births in 2024, the lowest annual birth rate since 1999.

In December, President Putin said at a year-end press conference that the birth rate would be 1.4 in 2025, suggesting Russia needed a baby boom.

In his annual “Direct Line,” President Putin said, “(The birth rate) is also declining slightly, to about 1.4. We need to achieve at least 2.0,” and appealed to the nation: “We must make the happiness of motherhood and fatherhood popular.”

Critics argue that President Putin’s stance on the country’s low birth rate is ultimately about restraint rather than demographic concerns.

Konstantin Sonin, John Dewey Distinguished Professor at the University of Chicago’s Harris School of Public Policy, told CNBC: “I strongly believe that the Putin regime’s efforts to double down on fertility have nothing to do with demographic trends of any kind. This is all about social control.”

“(Russian authorities) want women to be at home, they want women to be with their children. They want men to care about women, not politics,” said Sonin, a prominent critic of President Vladimir Putin.

CNBC has reached out to the Kremlin for a response to its comments and is awaiting a response.

Sonin argued that Putin has already shown he doesn’t care about demographic trends by starting a war with Ukraine, and that the conflict is causing economic instability, labor market shortages and inflation.

Sonin said the Kremlin’s efforts to encourage more births have failed because Russian women do not feel safe or secure, with the declining birth rate being direct evidence of this and effectively dispelling the positive image of the country and the war promoted by Russian and state media.

“For any woman, for any young family, there are more important things than how much cash they receive directly from the state. What is important for them is a general sense of security, and that does not exist in Russia,” Sonin said.

“Since the war began, the quality of life has declined. With hundreds of thousands of young people dying because of the war, people suddenly feel much less safe than they would have felt in other situations.”