Despite the Paris Agreement commitments, countries have repeatedly “missed” their climate targets, the United Nations has warned.
Global climate pledges are on track to limit global warming by up to 2.5 degrees Celsius (4.5 degrees Fahrenheit) this century, the United Nations has warned, despite numerous pledges, falling far short of the targets needed to tackle the climate crisis.
The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) said in its annual emissions gap report on Tuesday that the world has a “very high probability” of exceeding the internationally agreed target of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Celsius) set under the Paris Agreement within the next decade.
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If countries follow through on their climate action plan commitments, the world will warm by 2.3 to 2.5 degrees Celsius (4.1 to 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100, the report says. However, with current policies in place, the Earth is expected to become 2.8 degrees Celsius (5 degrees Celsius) warmer within that period.
“Countries have tried three times to meet their commitments under the Paris Agreement, and each time they have missed the mark,” UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said.
“While national climate plans are making some progress, it is far from fast enough, so unprecedented emissions reductions are still needed in an increasingly challenging geopolitical context and within increasingly tight frameworks.”
The findings come just days before world leaders are scheduled to gather in Brazil for the United Nations climate change conference, COP30, where the failures of previous global efforts to tackle the crisis will loom large.
Tuesday’s report said global emissions in 2024 will rise 2.3% from a year ago, with India leading the increase, followed by China, Russia and Indonesia.
But the rich and powerful Group of 20 (G20) countries account for three-quarters of global emissions, and of the six biggest polluters, only the European Union cut greenhouse gases last year.
Meanwhile, the United States under President Donald Trump is moving away from tackling climate change, with its planned withdrawal from the Paris climate accord expected to be formally announced early next year.
The Trump administration’s policies, ranging from relaxing environmental regulations to blocking green energy projects, will reverse warming by a tenth, UNEP said in a report.
The U.N. agency also said the rest of the world would need to cut an additional 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide a year to offset the report’s projected increase in U.S. carbon pollution.
“Every 10 degrees” is important
Scientists broadly agree that warming more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Celsius) above pre-industrial levels risks catastrophic consequences, and that every effort must be made to get as close to that safer threshold as possible.
At 1.4 degrees Celsius (2.5 degrees Celsius) warmer than pre-industrial temperatures, the Earth is already too warm for most tropical coral reefs to survive, but ice sheets and the Amazon rainforest will suffer severe and permanent changes below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Celsius) that could affect the entire planet.
“Every tenth of a degree impacts communities and ecosystems around the world,” said Adele Thomas, vice-chair of another U.N. scientific committee that calculates climate impacts.
“This is especially important for vulnerable communities and ecosystems that are already impacted,” she told The Associated Press.
“Heat waves are important. Marine heat waves and coral reef destruction are also important. Given sea level rise, they are important in the long term.”
The United Nations said in a report that only 60 countries party to the Paris Agreement, which account for 63% of global greenhouse gas emissions, had submitted or announced new mitigation targets for 2035 by the end-September deadline.
The report called on world leaders to make “decisive and accelerated” cuts in greenhouse gas emissions to minimize a projected 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Celsius) overshoot.
“Scientists say a temporary overshoot of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius is inevitable, starting in the early 2030s at the latest, and the path to a more livable future is becoming steeper by the day,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement about the report.
“But this is no reason to capitulate. It is a reason to step up and speed up. (Achieving) 1.5 degrees by the end of this century remains our North Star. And the science is clear: this goal is still within reach. But only if we increase our ambitions in a meaningful way.”
