On March 11, 2026, in Mumbai, India, the Liberian-flagged crude oil tanker Shenron Suezmax successfully navigated the highly dangerous Strait of Hormuz and entered the Port of Mumbai amid the intensifying conflict in West Asia.
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Oil prices soared in volatile trading as US President Donald Trump warned of further military aggression against Iran in the next few weeks, dampening hopes for a de-escalation of the impending conflict.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for May contract were up 4.1% at $104.21 a barrel as of 9:45 p.m. ET. International benchmark Brent crude oil futures for June contract rose 5% to $106.42 a barrel.
In his speech, President Trump said the rise in oil prices was due to “the Iranian regime launching outrageous terrorist attacks against commercial oil tankers and neighboring countries that had no connection to the conflict.”
In his address to the nation on Wednesday, he said the United States would attack Iran “very hard” in the next two to three weeks, but added that the war would not last long, talks with Tehran were “ongoing” and a diplomatic resolution was on the table.
“We’re going to finish this job, and we’re going to finish it very quickly,” he said.
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George Efstathopoulos, a portfolio manager at Fidelity International, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” that markets are bracing for “an either-or outcome” in which the president could signal either a plan to leave the war or further escalation and prolonged uncertainty. “Clearly it looks like we’re on the latter path right now.”
Efstathopoulos expects the speech to further fuel risk-off sentiment as investors wait for uncertainty to subside.
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and gas once passed, has been virtually halted since the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran began on February 28, sending energy prices soaring in one of the world’s most devastating energy crises.
Giles Alston, political risk analyst at Oxford Analytica, said oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was unlikely to resume anytime soon.
“It’s becoming increasingly clear that the U.S. position on what to do to get oil out of the Strait of Hormuz is now one that the U.S. government has largely washed its hands of. This is now a problem for the people who get oil through the Strait to solve for themselves,” he said Thursday on CNBC.
President Trump said in a Truth Social post early Wednesday that Iran had called for a ceasefire, briefly raising hopes for more oil tanker movement through the waterway and sending oil prices lower.
Iran’s “new regime president” has asked the United States for a ceasefire, but Trump said the request would only be considered if the Strait of Hormuz is “open, free and transparent.” “Until then, we will either blow Iran into oblivion or, as the saying goes, return to the Stone Age!!!”
But the Islamic Republic denied Trump’s claims, saying the waterway would not be reopened based on the US leader’s “absurd displays” and that the vital shipping route remained “under the decisive and dominant control of the Revolutionary Guards Navy.”
Since the start of the war, both countries have frequently contradicted each other’s claims regarding the existence and status of peace agreement negotiations. President Trump has also sent conflicting signals, saying negotiations are close to a peace deal, but also saying the U.S. is prepared to send thousands of troops to the region and escalate fighting.
Brent crude oil fell below $100 a barrel for the first time in a week after President Trump said Tuesday night that he expected the U.S. military to wind down operations against Iran in “two to three weeks” and appeared to be declaring victory even without a deal with Iran. “I’ll be leaving soon,” he said.
