Traders work on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Monday, February 9, 2026 in New York, USA.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
US Treasury yields were steady on Monday as investors awaited US President Donald Trump’s press conference on the Iran war and key inflation figures to be released this week.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose less than 1 basis point to 4.3525%. The yield on the two-year note also rose less than one basis point to 3.856%, while the yield on the 30-year note rose one basis point to 4.918%.
One basis point equals 0.01%, and yield and price are inversely related.
On Sunday, President Donald Trump issued an expletive-filled ultimatum, vowing to turn Iran into “hell” if the Islamic Republic doesn’t fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday at 8pm ET. But hours later, President Trump said in an interview with Fox News that he expected to be able to reach a deal with Tehran by Monday.
Meanwhile, Iran continued its attacks across the Gulf, including on Kuwait’s oil headquarters over the weekend, and has said the vital waterway will fully reopen only after Iran compensates for war damage, rejecting President Trump’s latest threats.
Reuters reported on Monday that Iran and the United States had received a plan to end hostilities that, if agreed, would lead to an immediate ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The framework, which could come into force on Monday, was put together by Pakistan, anonymous sources told Reuters.
The Middle East war is now in its sixth week, energy prices have soared and bond investors are pricing in a worsening outlook for inflation, dampening hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury is up about 36 basis points from 3.962% before the dispute began, hovering near its highest level since mid-2025.
“Bonds are falling along with stocks, which suggests stagflation rather than a recession,” said Oriano Rizza, a trader at CMC Markets Singapore, warning of increased volatility ahead of Tuesday’s deadline.
Formal agreement could reduce prices WTI crude oil price Raise the price by $20 to $30, S&P500 index Riza estimates that oil prices could rise by up to 5%, while infrastructure strikes could push oil prices into the $130 to $150 per barrel range and push the CBOE volatility index above 35.
Riza said the market could be volatile due to low trading volumes during the holiday Monday, and advised investors to “wait until after Tuesday night to take positions.”
Investors will also be watching a series of key economic indicators released in the U.S. this week, including February’s Personal Consumption Expenditure Index. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, released Thursday, will provide an early judgment on whether the oil shock is spilling over into prices in the world’s largest economy.
