U.S. Treasury yields are largely flat heading into the final trading day of the week, with headline CPI data expected to pick up in headline inflation later on Friday.
yield of 10 years US Treasury The note, a benchmark for government borrowing, was little changed at 4.2972% as of about 3:45 a.m. ET.
of 2 year Treasury bill The yield, which is more sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s short-term interest rate decisions, rose nearly 1 basis point to 3.7932%. longer date 30 year Treasury bill The yield remained stable at 4.8968%.
One basis point is equal to 0.01%, or 1/100th of 1%, and yield and price are inversely proportional to each other.
The geopolitical shock caused by the U.S.-Iran war has upended investors’ expectations for the Fed’s interest rate trajectory.
Even before the war began, inflation was above the Fed’s 2% target. The Middle East conflict has complicated the Fed’s rate-setting approach, as the central bank considers the lasting price impact of energy shocks.
The U.S. consumer price index rose 0.3% in February, but is expected to rise to 0.9% when the latest monthly print is released, with higher oil prices partially driving the rise.
Similarly, annual headline inflation is expected to jump to 3.3% in March from 2.4% year-on-year in February, according to consensus forecasts. This increase will be the highest since May 2024, driven by sharp increases in energy costs and the passing on of costs to consumers.
On Thursday, the Federal Reserve’s recommended inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index, rose 0.4% from a month earlier in February, in line with expectations, and was up 2.8% from a year earlier.
Oil prices again approached $100 a barrel in early trade on Friday as the Middle East ceasefire agreement remained under strain. west texas intermediate It was last up 1.62% at $99.46 per barrel. brent crude oil The price increased by 1.85% to $97.65.
