Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian speaks to commemorate the 6th anniversary of the killing of Qasem Soleimani in Musala, Tehran. Qasem Soleimani, former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force, was killed in a US missile strike in Iraq in 2020.
Soban Farajvan | Light Rocket | Getty Images
Widespread anti-government protests have roiled Iran for more than a week, forcing leaders to consider options to quell unrest as US President Donald Trump raises threats of intervention.
The escalating violence, which began in Tehran’s bazaar on December 28, has become increasingly violent in recent days, spurred by growing discontent over Iran’s long-running economic crisis. At least 29 people have been killed and more than 1,200 arrested, the Human Rights Defenders News Agency said on Tuesday. The US-registered nonprofit relies on activist networks within Iran for reporting.
According to the group, anti-regime demonstrations have spread to more than 250 locations in 27 of Iran’s 31 provinces.
The Iranian government has sought to quell the protests, with Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei saying on Saturday that “the rioters must be put in their place,” in remarks widely interpreted as a signal for security forces to halt the demonstrations.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian struck a more conciliatory tone, encouraging dialogue and promising economic reforms to placate protesters demanding political change, an end to corruption and relief from rising living costs.
The promise included a monthly stipend of 10 million rials ($7) per person in non-cashable electronic credit that could be used at some grocery stores, Reuters reported, citing the semi-official Tasnim news agency. Officials also pledged to overhaul the country’s foreign exchange subsidy system to provide direct support to consumers, shifting away from subsidies to importers, which have long been criticized as being susceptible to corruption.
Still, public unrest persists, extending from economic grievances to broader dissatisfaction with the regime, with some demonstrators chanting “Death to the dictator,” referring to Ayatollah Khamenei, who has ultimate authority over the state.
Tehran, Iran – January 3: (—-Editorial Use Only – Credit Required – “Iranian Leader Press Office/Materials” – No Marketing, No Advertising Campaigns – Distributed as a Service to Clients—-) Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei speaks on January 3 in Tehran, Iran. 2026. (Photo courtesy of Iran Leader Press Office/Anadolu via Getty Images)
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Increased risk of US intervention
The violence has reignited concerns about possible U.S. intervention.
In a social media post last Friday, President Trump warned that if Iranian authorities used violence against peaceful protesters, the United States would be “locked, loaded and ready to go” and vowed that the United States would protect protesters if they were attacked.
The warning took on added weight after U.S. forces detained Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro over the weekend and brought him to New York to stand trial this week.
President Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday that Iranian authorities would be “very, very hurt” if more protesters died. “We’re watching closely. If they start killing people like they have in the past, we’re going to get a very hard blow from the United States,” Trump said.
Analysts at research firm BMI, part of Fitch Solutions, said Iranian leaders may now be more cautious about using force against protesters, noting that President Trump supported an Israeli attack last June that bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities.
“If protests intensify, we see an increased risk of U.S. action against Iran in early 2026,” analysts said.
Reuters quoted an unnamed Iranian official as saying there were concerns that Iran could become “the next victim of President Trump’s aggressive foreign policy.”
Iran’s economy has struggled since President Trump withdrew the United States from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, which limited Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. The country is also reeling from tougher sanctions after a 12-day war with longtime U.S.-backed regional rival Israel.
People walk through closed shops during protests in the centuries-old main bazaar in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, January 6, 2026.
Vahid Salemi | AP
Iran’s official currency, the rial, plummeted in December and fell to an all-time low of approximately 1.45 million rials to the dollar by the end of 2025, with inflation reaching 42.5%.
David Roche, a veteran investor and strategist at Quantum Strategies, told CNBC on Monday that Iran’s prolonged economic crisis could pose a greater risk to the regime than the prospect of U.S. intervention.
Roach cited geographic and political constraints and said, “(Iran) will not collapse because of U.S. intervention.” In fact, he said, the combination of continued protests and worsening domestic economic conditions would pose a greater risk.
He added that while the regime will likely outlast this particular protest, “they don’t have the means to deal with Iran’s economic problems.”
—CNBC’s Amitoj Singh contributed to this report.
