1kg gold bars stacked at the Perth Mint operated by Gold Co.
Matt Jelonek | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Gold prices rose to a new record above $4,800 on Wednesday, continuing a sharp rally as investors sought safety amid threats of tariffs from the White House and renewed concerns about a global trade war.
The rally has reignited debate among investors about how high prices can rise after a blockbuster year for bullion.
Analysts say gold entered 2026 with momentum as geopolitical tensions, lower real interest rates and efforts by investors and central banks to diversify from the dollar strengthen the metal’s role as the world’s ultimate haven.
Predictions are becoming increasingly bullish. Analysts surveyed by the London Bullion Market Association expect prices to rise above $5,000 this year, citing lower U.S. real interest rates, continued Federal Reserve easing and hopes for a sustained central bank diversification away from the dollar.
Julia Du, senior commodity strategist at ICBC Standard Bank, expects gold prices to rise to $7,150.
LBMA said in its forecast that “gold will continue to attract attention even beyond record-breaking 2025.”
Goldman Sachs also reiterated its bullish stance, saying gold is the most high-conviction trade driven by changes in who buys gold.
“Gold remains our highest confidence long case or base case, with a price of $4,900 by the end of the year,” said Daan Struiven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs.
He noted that central bank purchases drove the rise in 2023 and 2024, but the rise accelerated in 2025 as private sector demand increased.
“Retail investors are starting to diversify into gold through a variety of channels,” he said at a media briefing on Wednesday, adding that while it is difficult to distinguish between retail and institutional flows, ETF inflows provide clear evidence of that shift.
Demand primarily comes from private wealth firms, asset managers, hedge funds and pension investors, Goldman Sachs said.
For many gold bulls, geopolitics remains the determining backdrop. Nikki Shields, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP, said the current cycle does not resemble a speculative peak. He expects gold prices to reach $5,400 this year.
“Last year was historic, kind of a once-in-a-century event in the precious metals industry, where silver basically doubled,” she said.
“Gold is up 60%, so I don’t think we’ll see a repeat of that kind of rally, but $5,400 is a solid 30% increase year-on-year,” she said. “This is a worldly transaction. This is not a surge in goods.”
Geopolitical tensions have not faded into the background, she insisted. Recent flashpoints, such as U.S. actions in Venezuela and the U.S. government’s push to assert control of Greenland, have deepened investors’ flight to gold.
“For the last 10 years, we’ve entered a world where there is a strong need to secure critical metals and critical commodities,” Shields said.
