1kg gold bars stacked at the Perth Mint operated by Gold Co.
Matt Jelonek | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Gold continued to break records, topping $5,000 an ounce on Monday as investors sought safety in the yellow metal amid rising geopolitical tensions and global financial risks.
February spot gold prices and US gold futures prices rose 1.2% to trade at $5,042 and $5,036 per ounce, respectively.
The precious metal’s rally comes as recent flashpoints from Greenland and Venezuela to the Middle East highlight rising geopolitical risks and strengthen gold’s appeal as a hedge against uncertainty.
“The recent further rise in gold and silver prices is against the backdrop of geoeconomic issues related to Greenland,” HSBC wrote in a note last week.
Silver also rose on Monday, with spot prices up 3% to $106.1 an ounce, also benefiting from industrial demand.
Analysts at Union Bancare Prive said Friday that prices rose on sustained demand from both institutional investors and retail buyers.
“We expect gold to remain strong this year, with a year-end price target of $5,200 per ounce, reflecting continued central bank and retail investment demand,” UBP said.
Goldman Sachs sees the demand base for gold expanding beyond traditional channels. Western ETF holdings have increased by about 500 tonnes since the beginning of 2025, but new products used to hedge macro policy risks, such as physical purchases by the wealthy, have become an increasingly important source of demand.
The investment bank recently raised its December 2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 an ounce from the previous $4,900, arguing that hedging against global macro and policy risks is “sticking”, effectively raising the starting point for gold prices this year.
Purchases by central banks also remain strong. Goldman estimates that emerging market central banks continue to move foreign exchange reserves into gold, with central bank purchases now averaging around 60 tonnes per month, far above the pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes.
Importantly, the central bank assumes that hedges against global macro policy risks, including concerns about fiscal sustainability, will remain in place until 2026, unlike election-related hedges that quickly unwind after the US vote at the end of 2024.
“We assume global macro policy risk hedging remains stable as perceived risks (such as fiscal sustainability) may not fully resolve in 2026,” Goldman said last week.
