A regime change in Venezuela could pave the way for the return of US oil majors to the South American country with the world’s largest proven oil reserves.
Hours after U.S. forces detained Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, President Donald Trump called on U.S. oil companies to invest billions of dollars in Venezuela’s energy sector.
“We’re going to get a very large American oil company, the largest in the world, to come in and spend billions of dollars to fix up our badly broken infrastructure, our oil infrastructure,” President Trump told reporters Saturday at his Mar-a-Lago mansion in Palm Beach, Florida.
Oil majors have remained largely silent since the overthrow of the Maduro regime as the situation on the ground in Venezuela remains uncertain. but, chevron, exxon mobil and conocophilips Stocks are rising as investors bet that the three major U.S. oil companies will make money after U.S. military action.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Venezuela’s oil reserves are estimated at 303 billion barrels, or about 17% of the world’s total.
The country’s production peaked at 3.5 million barrels per day in the late 1990s, but has fallen significantly since then, according to energy consulting firm Kpler. Venezuela’s production currently stands at around 800,000 barrels per day, according to Kpler data.
According to the EIA, its reserves are primarily located in the Orinoco belt in the eastern part of the country and are extra-heavy crude oils that require higher levels of technical expertise to extract.
Former President Hugo Chávez seized assets from US oil majors in 2007. Chevron is the only US oil major with operations in Venezuela. Exxon and Conoco have billions of dollars in unpaid claims against Caracas from Chavez’s nationalization.
Morgan Stanley analyst Devin McDermott told clients in a note Monday that easing U.S. sanctions against Venezuela is not enough to encourage new investment in the country. President Trump said over the weekend that the U.S. embargo on Venezuelan oil remains in full force.
McDermott said U.S. producers need to find a way to recover claims from Caracas and have confidence in the stability of the Venezuelan government.
President Trump denounced Venezuela’s oil nationalization as “one of the greatest thefts of American property in our nation’s history.”
“Oil companies are going to come in and spend money. We’re going to take back oil that, frankly, should have been taken away a long time ago,” the president said.
A U.S. official told CNBC that the administration plans to discuss plans to expand domestically with oil company executives. But U.S. oil companies still have no plans to re-enter Venezuela and are not currently in talks to do so, industry sources told CNBC’s Brian Sullivan.
Chevron’s best position
McDermott said Chevron is in the best position to quickly ramp up production when conditions permit. Venezuela exported about 140,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to Kpler data.
JPMorgan analyst Arun Jayaram told clients on Monday that Chevron has a significant resource base in Venezuela. Jayaram said the company has a joint venture with state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), which is responsible for 23% of the country’s output.
Chevron said it “remains focused on the safety and well-being of our employees and the integrity of our assets” following the overthrow of President Maduro. “We continue to operate in full compliance with all relevant laws and regulations,” the oil major said in a statement over the weekend.
The Biden administration issued a license in 2022 to a joint venture between Chevron and PDVSA allowing it to produce and export oil. The Trump administration granted the oil majors a restricted license in July 2025, allowing them to pump oil but prohibiting any proceeds from going to Maduro’s government.
Conoco and Exxon’s claims
In the 1990s, Conoco and Exxon participated in Venezuela’s “open oil” policy to attract foreign investment to exploit the resources of the Orinoco Belt. They left the country after Chávez’s nationalization and filed an arbitration claim against Caracas.
Jayaram said Conoco’s unpaid arbitration claim against Venezuela is approaching $10 billion. Exxon’s bill is said to be about $2 billion.
Conoco spokesperson Dennis Nass said in a statement over the weekend that Conoco is “monitoring developments in Venezuela and their potential impact on global energy supplies and stability.” “It is too early to speculate about future business activities or investments.”
Exxon did not respond to requests for comment.
Rebuilding Venezuela’s oil infrastructure is likely to cost billions of dollars. Investors had speculated that the work could boost the oil services company’s business. Slb increased by more than 10%, halliburton Although it increased by 9%, baker hughes It rose 4% in Monday trading.
Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said in a note to clients on Saturday that the future of Venezuelan production depends on how the local security situation develops.
Mr Croft said oil company executives operating in Venezuela said it would cost $10 billion a year to rebuild production and that a stable security environment was essential to returning production to historic levels.
He said Venezuela’s production could increase by hundreds of thousands of barrels a day over the next 12 months if the Trump administration fully eases sanctions and there is an orderly transition.
“But in a chaotic regime change scenario, like what happened in Libya and Iraq, all bets are off,” Croft told clients.
