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pfizer The company on Tuesday said it expected a modest outlook for 2026 as it looks to long-term investments in its pipeline to counter declining sales of coronavirus-related products and declines in older medicines.
These hurdles are neither surprising nor new for Pfizer, which saw sales of its coronavirus vaccine and antiviral drugs plummet after posting record profits during the pandemic. Pharmaceutical companies have pursued deals of all sizes in recent years to build new revenue streams. Examples include the recently completed $10 billion acquisition of obesity biotech Metsala and a massive $43 billion partnership with cancer drug maker Seagen in 2023.
However, the guidance highlights that there is still a long way to go before these investments pay off. For example, Metsala offers a pipeline of drugs that are still in the early stages of development.
The company’s stock price fell nearly 5% on Tuesday. The stock price has also fallen about 5% since the beginning of the year.
The company expects adjusted earnings to be between $2.80 and $3 per share next year. According to LSEG, this is slightly below analysts’ consensus estimate for the full year of $3.05 per share.
Sales are expected to total between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion, which would be roughly flat compared to Pfizer’s new 2025 sales guidance of $62 billion. Analysts had expected sales of $61.59 billion in 2026, according to LSEG estimates.
The company said the lackluster earnings outlook was due in part to lower sales of its coronavirus vaccine and antiviral drug Paxrobid. Pfizer expects sales from these products to reach $5 billion in 2026, down about $1.5 billion from the previous year.
Pfizer also noted that sales are expected to decline by an additional approximately $1.5 billion year over year due to the loss of market exclusivity for certain products. Some blockbuster drugs, such as the company’s pneumonia vaccine Prevnar, are facing increased competition from rivals.
Pfizer’s patent expirations will occur primarily in 2026 and 2028, the company’s chief financial officer, Dave Denton, said on a conference call with investors on Tuesday. He said the drugmaker expects a $17 billion impact on sales from the expiration of patents and regulatory exclusivity.
One of the company’s best-selling products, the blood-thinner Eliquis, will also have its Medicare price reduced next year after negotiations with the government as part of the Anti-Inflation Act. Some analysts also noted that the guidance likely reflects costs associated with the company’s recent acquisitions, including Metsä.
JPMorgan analyst Chris Schott said in a note Tuesday that the outlook is “broadly in line with expectations.” He said the coronavirus headwinds and investment in research and development will be partially offset by the company’s ongoing restructuring.
Pfizer said on an investor conference call Tuesday that it exceeded its 2025 cost-cutting goals. The company said Tuesday it is targeting cost savings of more than $7 billion by 2027 and expects to achieve most of those savings by next year.
Meanwhile, BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Sagerman said that while the outlook for 2026 is slightly lower, “there is still room for adjustment given the uncertainty surrounding vaccine policy.”
Pfizer and other drug companies had to grapple with changes in U.S. vaccine policy under Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent vaccine skeptic.
“Given the HHS policy uncertainty and infection rates, we appreciate conservative estimates and cost savings heading into the new year,” Zeigerman said.
Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said in a phone call that the Food and Drug Administration’s comments about vaccinations are “without merit” and “will not change the way we think about long-term investments in vaccines.” Bourla did not give specifics, but said he believed “this abnormal situation will correct itself.”
Earlier this year, Pfizer entered into a landmark drug pricing agreement with the Trump administration that includes selling its existing drugs to Medicaid patients at the lowest prices offered in other developed countries. Pfizer also plans to guarantee the same “most-favored-nation” pricing for its new drugs to Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial payers.
In return, the company will receive a three-year exemption from President Donald Trump’s drug-specific tariffs.
Denton said the company plans to offer “significant discounts” on its Medicaid business as part of the deal with President Trump, and the company’s 2026 guidance “includes price compression and margin compression.”
