Prediction market traders are increasingly betting that more international chaos is ahead in the wake of President Donald Trump’s attack on Venezuela.
Traders on the fast-growing platform have recently been placing money based on where the White House will focus next. The bets have intensified as Wall Street and Main Street focus on the Trump administration’s move toward swift and powerful international attacks.
“The big takeaway for investors is that President Trump has become increasingly comfortable and confident in the use of military force,” Piper Sandler analyst Andy Laperriere said in a letter to clients on Monday. “The first years of his second term were marked by boundless energy and risk-taking, which extended to military applications.”
In the Calci Prediction Market, odds that President Trump will “take back the Panama Canal” by early 2029 have risen to more than 35%, up from less than 30% late last week. President Trump said last year that he would not rule out using military force to seize maritime routes between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans.
The likelihood that the United States would “take control of any part of Greenland” had risen to 38% as of midday Tuesday, an increase of about 8 percentage points since mid-last week. At one point over the weekend, the odds were over 46%.
In the larger market, odds that President Trump would “purchase at least a portion” of Danish territory, based on bet amounts, hovered near 25%, up from less than 20% seen late last week.
The stakes on both questions about Kalsi total nearly $2.5 million.
Painted houses and apartment complexes overlooking the fjord in Nuuk, Greenland, November 3, 2025.
Juliette Pavie | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Greenland’s leaders have repeatedly rejected President Trump’s claims that the United States is seeking a takeover. But President Trump renewed his call for control of Europe in an interview with The Atlantic published this weekend.
“Greenland is absolutely necessary,” President Trump told the magazine.
Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at consulting firm Eurasia Group, said the Danish government is in “full crisis mode” following President Trump’s recent comments.
New markets worth tens of thousands of dollars each have been created in recent days on the polymarket over the possibility of an attack on Colombia or an invasion of Cuba. President Trump poses a threat to both countries.
Aerial view of the Panama Canal at sunset, March 2025.
Alex Visbal | Moments | Getty Images
This weekend, Karshi Betters began predicting that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will step down by next year. The probability of this happening is currently trading at about 54% for a portion of the nearly $1 million market.
President Trump last year authorized bombing Iran, drawing the United States into the conflict between the Islamic Republic and Israel. President Trump last week threatened to “hustle Iran out” if it tried to rebuild its nuclear program.
“Now we’re hearing that Iran is trying to rise again. If they do, we’re going to have to defeat them. We’re going to defeat them,” Trump said. “We’re going to beat the crap out of them. But I hope that doesn’t happen.”
