A cargo ship photographed off the coast of Fujairah city in the Strait of Hormuz in the northern emirate on February 25, 2026.
Giuseppe Cacasse | AFP | Getty Images
Oil prices are expected to soar at the start of trading Sunday evening as market participants worry that the war between the United States and Iran could spiral out of control and lead to major supply disruptions.
A large-scale airstrike launched by the United States and Israel against Iran killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and other leaders of the Islamic Republic. Click here for the latest developments.
Calci Forecast Market currently sees a 79% chance that U.S. crude oil will reach at least $73 per barrel. usa crude oil It closed Friday at $67.02 a barrel, up 17% since the beginning of the year in anticipation of a possible attack on Iran. Energy futures will begin trading at 6pm ET.
Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, could rise even more. Brent futures closed at $73.21 a barrel on Friday, up 20% since the start of the year.
It is unclear who currently rules OPEC’s fourth-largest oil producer. How oil markets ultimately react will depend on whether the war leads to long-term disruptions to traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important barrier for global oil trade.
Crude oil futures year-to-date
President Donald Trump said Sunday that Iran wants and has agreed to dialogue, leaving the door open for a detente that avoids long-term, large-scale disruption.
“They want to talk and I’ve agreed to talk, so I’m going to talk to them,” Trump told The Atlantic on Sunday. The president told CNBC that U.S. military operations in Iran are “ahead of schedule.”
However, consulting firm Rystad Energy says tanker traffic through the strait has already effectively come to a standstill as shipping companies take precautionary measures. global benchmark brent The company predicted on Saturday that crude oil futures prices could jump $20 at the start of trading.
“Tankers are starting to build along the Strait of Hormuz, but nothing seems to be going on at the moment. Tankers are definitely spooked,” said Matt Smith, an oil analyst at energy consultancy Kupler.
On average, more than 14 million barrels per day passed through the strait in 2025, according to Kpler data, representing about a third of global seaborne oil exports. According to the company, about three-quarters of its exports go to China, India, Japan, and South Korea.
Other analysts expect a more modest rise depending on how the conflict unfolds. Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said prices should be at least $3 to $5 a barrel higher at the start of trading.
Lipou said on Sunday that the worst-case scenario is an attack by Iran on Saudi oil infrastructure and a subsequent complete blockade of the strait. The analyst said oil prices would rise by $10 to $20 in this scenario, giving the probability of that happening to 33%.
Brent crude oil futures year-to-date
Barclays said Brent crude could hit $100 a barrel at the start of trading as the market grapples with the threat of potential supply disruptions.
“It is very uncertain at this point how things will end, but in the meantime the oil market will have to face its worst fears,” Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh told clients in a note on Saturday. “The potential impact on the oil market cannot be overstated.”
