Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on November 26, 2025 in New York City, USA.
Brendan McDiarmid | Reuters
US markets may have had a rocky start to December, but trading engines appear to have some momentum to recover from a tumultuous November.
Bitcoin has clawed back some of its recent losses, with tech stocks rallying in the U.S. on Tuesday, helping stocks recover from a pullback in the previous session that ended a five-day winning streak. This rebound suggests that investors’ appetite for taking on market risks remains strong. I needed a moment to catch my breath.
Other indicators show that confidence remains in the year-end bull market.
Investors are pricing in an 89.2% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s Dec. 10 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Those expectations have risen sharply from a month ago, when the odds were more like a coin flip.
Barring any surprises, attention is returning to the basics. Doug Bies, global equity strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said the market “seems to be looking beyond the economic weakness we’re currently experiencing to accelerated growth in the second half of next year, as well as stronger-than-expected earnings forecasts for the fourth quarter and calendar year 2026.”
If investors are looking for a story to end the year, they may have finally found it. It’s cautious optimism doing its best to cut through the noise.
—CNBC’s Sean Conlon and Pia Singh contributed to this article.
What you need to know today
Technology lifts the US market. All three major benchmarks closed higher stateside on Tuesday on the back of technological advancements and a recovery in cryptocurrencies. The European Stoxx600 ended just above the flatline. Shares in German biotech giant Bayer soared after the Trump administration reined in U.S. lawsuits related to the company’s herbicide products.
The Digital Assets Treasury is under surveillance. DAT companies (publicly traded companies that hold cryptocurrencies and offer investors exposure to the underlying digital currencies) have been in the spotlight following the cryptocurrency market’s sharp decline in recent weeks. As the price of cryptocurrencies declines, companies are trading their crypto holdings at a discount, which can cause a number of problems.
Delayed response to customs duties. President Donald Trump’s tariffs could prompt U.S. companies to cut jobs domestically, according to statements from business executives and economic forecasters. The Supply Management Association’s November survey showed the employment index fell two points to 44%, the lowest level since August.
French AI startup releases new model. The release by Mistral, one of Europe’s leading AI startups, included a large-scale model that it claims is “the world’s best open-weight multimodal and multilingual.” Mistral raised 1.7 billion euros in September, with participation from Nvidia and Dutch chip equipment maker ASML.
(PRO) Prepare for virtual currency winter? Bitcoin’s recent price decline has reached 20%, suggesting that the crypto bull market has turned bearish. But whether a true bear market arrives depends on several factors, analysts say.
And finally…
Residential buildings under construction at the China Vanke Company Isle Maison development in Shanghai, China, on Friday, January 17, 2025.
Shen Qilai | Shen Qilai Bloomberg | Getty Images
Why China’s real estate market is still searching for a bottom
New warning signs are flashing in China’s housing market as the real estate recession enters its fifth year and excess inventory drives down home prices.
Revenue for the top 100 developers in November was down 36% from the same month last year, according to industry data.
Morgan Stanley estimated that average sales for 25 major developers in November were down 42% from a year earlier.
— Anique Bao
