Football betting expert Jones Knows provides insight into the next Premier League fixtures and tips for Aston Villa to get a result at Arsenal…
Crystal Palace v Fulham, Thursday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
This is one of those matches where the betting market dares to ignore the most obvious outcome and offer the biggest price for such an outcome. A draw must be the play here on October 23rd at Sky Bet, involving two teams not built to dominate the game and comfortable in low-risk game conditions.
Ties are always ignored. Bettors are naturally drawn to picking winners, which feels more decisive and intuitive. However, in even matches in the Premier League, a draw is often a worthwhile outcome, especially when, as in this case, the price tag is higher than both winning options.
Score prediction: 1-1
Liverpool vs Leeds, Thursday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Set-pieces now feel like the key battleground in every Premier League game, and it’s one that Anton Stach has firmly focused on. Leeds have scored more goals from set-pieces than any other team in the Premier League this season, but Liverpool are at the other end of the uncomfortable spectrum, having conceded the most goals from dead-ball situations. This is a statistical conflict that cannot be ignored.
Statch has a corner-taking role, which immediately increases his chances of assisting. And in matches like this, it makes much more sense to side with the player who executed the move than to try to guess which Leeds player will finish the move.
Anton Stacchi is 9/4 for goal or assist at Anfield with Sky Bet
Stutch’s role has changed markedly in Leeds’ 3-5-2 system, giving him license to play much higher up the pitch. That tactical tweak had a clear impact on his results. In the last five games he has taken 16 shots, effectively doubling his previous number of shots, and has already scored two goals from more advanced positions. He is 9/4 to record a goal or assist on Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 2-2
Brentford v Tottenham, Thursday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Tottenham are in good form thanks to a rather mundane 2-0 home win against the Bees, but the emotional pull of this match is heavily in the home team’s favor. Thomas Frank has been the driving force behind their rise and his return as opposition manager will certainly sharpen their focus rather than distract them. Fresh off a hard-fought and impressive win over Bournemouth, Brentford’s players will be keen to prove that the system, as well as their manager, is still strong.
It is expected to be a competitive and awkward battle for Spurs, where their tactical preparedness will be tested by a Brentford side determined to show they are more than just their former manager, which has not been factored into the price. At Sky Bet, a home win will decide the play at 5/4.
Score prediction: 2-1
Sunderland vs Manchester City, Thursday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Josep Guardiola’s side will not be aiming for a wild scoreline on the road. City have averaged 2.6 goals per game in their last 23 away games, but this figure is skewed by one outlier in total – a ridiculous 5-4 loss to Fulham. If you remove that anomaly, that number drops sharply to 2.1 goals per game. This is a better representation of how City manage away matches.
Thursday, January 1st 7:45pm
Kickoff at 8pm
City don’t tend to blow teams away in the early stages of games, instead suffocating them. A focus on game control over long periods of possession, control of territory, and the risk of relentless attack. There is also the factor of Guardiola’s festive period, which cannot be ignored. From December 26th to January 7th, Guardiola has recorded 14 wins and two draws in his last 16 matches. No loss. This is a time when his team is disciplined, focused, and usually one step ahead of their opponents. A win for Man City and a win within 3.5 goals would make them winners in waiting at 6/5 on Sky Bet.
