Measles outbreaks are more than just a public health threat. They could also be a financial burden for the United States, and the costs could become even more severe as diseases once eradicated become more widespread.
The United States is expected to lose its official measles exclusion status this week following a review by the Pan American Health Organization after cases hit a recent high this year.
As of early November, more than 5,100 measles cases had been reported nationwide in 2026, making it the country’s worst outbreak in more than 30 years. By 2026, eight deaths related to the disease have been confirmed in each state: six in Pennsylvania, one in New York, and one in Wisconsin.
Based on this year’s number of infections, a new tool developed by researchers at Johns Hopkins University estimates the economic cost of the outbreak to be nearly $83 million. This total includes $56 million in public health response costs, nearly $25 million in lost productivity, and more than $1.8 million in direct medical costs.
The tool also estimates that a measles outbreak in the United States in 2025 would result in 2,289 confirmed cases nationwide and more than $37 million in economic losses.
The costs go beyond treating those who get sick, and take into account the resources health departments spend investigating and containing outbreaks, as well as wages lost if people have to miss work. The tool uses more recent state-specific cost and funding data than the researchers’ earlier work, which relied on historical incurred costs.
このツールからの推定値は、アウトブレイクによる実際の費用を決定的に示すものではありません。 However, it illustrates the high bills associated with the spread of vaccine-preventable diseases and the potential economic impact of lower childhood immunization rates. CNBC previously reported that a resurgence of measles in the United States has revealed weaknesses in the country’s public health system and raised concerns about the resurgence of other diseases that have been eliminated.
“People who took advantage of herd immunity and decided not to get vaccinated as children, or who never had measles, are now starting to become adults in large numbers who are at risk of potentially serious illness, significant medical costs, and death in the hospital,” Brian Patenaud, a health economist at the International Vaccine Access Center at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, who helped develop the tool, said in an interview.
Measles containment costs
Measles outbreaks can trigger costly public health responses even if many people exposed to measles do not develop symptoms.
Once an infected person is identified, public health authorities must investigate the infection, identify and notify people who may have been infected, coordinate with hospitals and schools, and possibly organize vaccination campaigns to prevent further spread.こうした取り組みは、スタッフやリソースを他の公衆衛生上の優先事項からそらす可能性があります。
Costs can vary widely by state.
Johns Hopkins data includes national averages, along with state-specific inputs such as inpatient costs and wages from government data and trusted health policy sources. For example, in New York, the average hospital stay is about $4,200 per day, but the minimum wage is $16 per hour.
The tool estimates that the 48 cases reported in New York State in 2025 cost an estimated $1.1 million, including approximately $749,000 in public health response, $333,000 in lost productivity, and approximately $24,500 in direct medical costs.
Meanwhile, Texas, the epicenter of the largest measles outbreak in the United States in 2025, had 803 cases and an estimated cost of nearly $13 million, according to the tool. This includes $9 million in public health costs, $4 million in lost productivity, and approximately $288,000 in direct medical costs.
The tool builds on a study published in August by Patenaud and other researchers that looked at the costs of measles outbreaks in the United States. Researchers reviewed published studies and government reports to compile historical estimates of medical and public health response costs across 18 states.
The paper estimates that the average historical cost of an outbreak from the public health response alone has been nearly $59,000 per case. The researchers also separated out the fixed proactive costs and the additional costs associated with each new case to estimate how costs would increase or decrease with the size of the outbreak.
“A lot of that happens upfront, and that’s because of the human labor involved in contact tracing and all the different actors that have to be mobilized to deal with the fact that there’s an outbreak,” Patenaud told CNBC. “That’s mainly due to labor costs.”
このモデルでは、固定費が約 298,000 ドル、追加のケースごとに約 16,300 ドルと見積もられています。 But it relied on historical data, including a particularly large 2019 outbreak in New York City, where contact tracing labor costs were high. The researchers also excluded productivity losses from their models because most of the historical studies they examined did not consistently consider productivity losses.
Cost of lost productivity
A medical assistant administers a measles, mumps, and rubella vaccination at Dr. Gary M. Kramer’s pediatric clinic in Coral Gables, Florida, on August 13, 2026.
Joe Radle | Getty Images
The economic burden of measles extends beyond the costs of treating infected patients and organizing the public health response.
麻疹にさらされた人は、たとえ症状が出なくても隔離しなければならない場合があります。 Parents may be forced to take time off from work to care for sick or infected children, while workers infected with the disease may lose wages while recovering.
A 2025 study by Joey Mattingly, a pharmacist and health economist at the University of Utah, used publicly available epidemiological and cost data to model the potential economic burden of 1,500 cases. His analysis included direct medical costs, public health spending, and productivity losses, and examined how the estimates would change under different assumptions, such as hospitalization rates.
The study estimates that a hypothetical outbreak could result in approximately $90 million in losses, including approximately $26 million in lost productivity.
Economic ripple effects of the incident
Because measles is highly contagious and one infected person can infect dozens of others, these indirect costs can add up quickly. These contacts may have to quarantine or miss work while health officials determine whether they have been infected, incurring costs even if they do not develop the disease.
Mattingly estimates that the productivity loss alone for each quarantined person could amount to about $300.
A single measles case that infects 40 to 50 people and requires isolation can lead to an estimated $12,000 to $15,000 in lost productivity, even if none of their contacts become ill.
Photo taken on February 27, 2025, of the Lubbock, Texas Health Department preparing to administer the MMR vaccine during a drive.
Annie Rice | Reuters
This ripple effect is one reason Mattingly argues that the economic cost of a measles outbreak could quickly outweigh the investment needed to vaccinate people against measles.
経済的負担はコミュニティ全体で不均等にかかる可能性もあります。 Mattingly said that while the cost of responding to an outbreak may be shared among local, state and federal agencies, the impact is often felt directly by local health departments.
“The health department is not going to sit around and wait for a measles outbreak to occur,” he said. “They’re working and doing everything else, but imagine having to stop what you’re doing because there’s a major outbreak in your community.”
Patenaud said the findings could help state and local health officials better predict the resources needed to contain outbreaks, especially as measles cases continue to rise.
「麻疹の単一症例の治療と対処は、癌の単一症例に比べてそれほど高額ではありません」と同氏は述べた。 “But when you have an outbreak like this and state and local health departments have to constantly divert resources that could be spent elsewhere for measles, you can quickly end up spending a lot of money.”
