Over the past week, Israel has waged a ferocious offensive across Lebanon, targeting the militant group Hezbollah, from Tripoli in the far north to villages along Lebanon’s southern border.
The Israeli military has announced hundreds of attacks targeting Hezbollah strongholds. Lebanese authorities say the attack has killed at least 217 people, injured nearly 700 more and displaced hundreds of thousands. At least 12 Israeli soldiers were injured in the new fighting, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said.
More strikes are likely to occur in the coming days as evacuation orders are issued for large areas of the country, including south of the Litani River and densely populated areas of Beirut. Asked earlier this week if Israel was preparing a large-scale ground invasion of Lebanon, an Israeli Defense Forces spokesperson said: “All options are on the table.”
The war began Saturday morning when the United States and Israel launched a joint offensive against Iran. But Israel was always prepared for the war to extend to Iran’s regional proxies. And when Hezbollah launched a small barrage of missiles and drones against military bases in northern Israel early Monday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had every reason to resume fighting in earnest.
The war with Hezbollah, which began in the aftermath of the October 7 attack, never actually ended, despite a nominal ceasefire taking effect in November 2024. Israel has carried out near-daily attacks against alleged Hezbollah targets and has accused the Iranian-backed militant group of violating the ceasefire by attempting to rearm and rebuild its army.
The IDF moved quickly in a new operation, calling up more than 100,000 reservists and seizing more locations along Lebanon’s southern border.
“There were five points. Now these points have expanded significantly,” Defense Minister Israel Katz said Friday, referring to the observation posts set up by Israel.
Israel is poised for a dramatic escalation of fighting in Lebanon, whether through a large-scale ground invasion or massive air strikes.
But Israel Hayom’s military analyst Yoav Rimor wrote Thursday that “Israel does not have the ability to completely dismantle Hezbollah. It seeks to weaken Hezbollah in a way that removes the threat from its northern borders, disables the organization, delays reconstruction for a long time, and, most importantly, allows the Lebanese government and Lebanese army to seize full control of the country.”
Israel and Hezbollah fought an inconclusive month-long war in 2006. Although Hezbollah was scarred by the conflict, it bounced back, during which time it was able to build a large arsenal of rockets, missiles, and drones. Despite years of relative quiet on the border, Israel also gathered intelligence and built its own fortifications in preparation for an upcoming war with Hezbollah.
Prime Minister Netanyahu is now aiming for a decisive and final victory in this long-simmering conflict. His military commander said Israel would not stop until Hezbollah was completely disarmed.
However, surrender by extremist groups is unlikely, if not entirely unthinkable. “We will not abandon our resistance activities. We will not give up our arms and we will not withdraw from the field,” the group said in a statement Friday.
The Lebanese government recently issued an order banning Hezbollah’s military activities, which could play a key role in a long-term solution. “We will not allow our country to be dragged into a new adventure and will take all necessary measures to stop those responsible and protect the Lebanese people,” Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said in a post on X on Monday.
“(Lebanon) is once again facing a familiar reality in which tens of thousands of its citizens are forced to flee their homes and migrate across the Litani (river),” wrote Zvi Barel, an Arab affairs analyst at Haaretz newspaper. “But now Israel may find in Lebanon a partner who is determined to work together, even if not declaratively, to eliminate the organization’s threat.”
But when will the Israeli government accept the offer and allow Lebanon to do within its borders what Israel is doing by force? For now, Prime Minister Netanyahu is pursuing an all-out military solution to disarming Hezbollah, avoiding a short-term diplomatic retreat.
