AI data center risks for Pennsylvania Republican incumbent

AI-driven data center boom in Pennsylvania — includes $20 billion in investments from Amazon — is causing political unrest in a Keystone State district that could help determine control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

The four House battlegrounds are in the eastern part of the state, where Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro is focused on data center expansion plans. Republicans represent all four districts and aim to not only hold onto their seats in November’s election, but also maintain their majority in the House, where they hold a five-seat majority.

Political analysts say data center dynamics could hurt incumbent companies, which will bear the brunt of a public backlash against unpopular developments.

Amy Walter’s Cook Political Report, which evaluates all congressional races, considers all four districts to be involved. Wards 7, 8 and 10 are all listed as “toss-ups” by the Cook Report. Cook rates the 1st Congressional District in Bucks County, north of Philadelphia, as “likely to be Republican,” so it is believed that this district will also be a factor. The company is headed by Brian Fitzpatrick, and construction is expected to begin with an infusion of funds from Amazon.

The bipartisan backlash over data centers complicates an already difficult environment for Republicans in battleground states, said Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Public Opinion Institute in Allentown, Pennsylvania.

“They’re really caught in the middle of the counter-attack forces,” he said. “Many of these people are in uncomfortable and difficult positions to begin with, and data center (issues) add another layer of challenge.”

Borick said the growing opposition to data centers has created a tightrope for Republican incumbents seeking to balance President Donald Trump’s energy policies and the need to support AI growth with constituent dissatisfaction and opposition to building data centers.

Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pennsylvania), who won the 10th District in 2024 by one of the narrowest margins in the nation, said that although he works on national energy policy, he considers data center regulation largely outside of his scope.

“At the end of the day, most of this issue … is a local issue for local governments,” he said. “As a federal employee, I don’t get into local zoning and buildings and what municipalities choose or don’t choose. That’s a local decision.”

In the swing 7th and 8th districts, Republican Reps. Ryan McKenzie and Rob Bresnahan each ousted incumbent Democrats in 2024.

Data centers are being built across the United States, fanning out from areas that have long been hot spots, such as the “Data Center Alley” in northern Virginia. In Amazon, Pennsylvania, microsoft and black stoneThe backed QTS is leveraging Shapiro’s existing energy infrastructure efforts and the supply of old industrial and agricultural land suitable for rezoning to turn the state into one of the next big data center markets. Microsoft plans to use the energy produced by the restarted Three Mile Island nuclear reactor to power its data centers.

The novelty of hyperscale data center expansion presents a unique response for politicians, as data centers remain one of the few issues in a polarized political environment that doesn’t take positions along party lines. The anti-data center movement is forging unlikely coalitions, with environmental groups and populist Trump supporters uniting.

Ginny Marcille-Kerslake, senior eastern Pennsylvania organizer for the environmental group Food & Water Watch, said local opposition to data center plans in Pennsylvania’s battleground states is strong and residents often unite across party lines. The state already has more than 100 data centers.

“In my 10 years of organizing, I’ve never seen so much opposition,” she said. “And especially in communities that find themselves being targeted by projects.”

Republican Rep. GT Thompson, who represents a safe seat in north-central Pennsylvania, said he has noticed a growing debate about data centers in the state and sympathizes with constituents’ concerns about construction displacing farmers.

“Everywhere you go in Pennsylvania, there’s quite a bit of discussion about this issue,” Thompson said. “I think this is an evolution in technology and it’s here to stay. It’s one of those controversial issues that I hear a lot about, and I agree with you. You don’t want these things on prime agricultural land.”

“Even on the energy side, we don’t really want them on the grid,” he added.

Data center construction has already become a flashpoint across the country during the fledgling primary election season. Opponents have delayed or blocked 48 data center projects in 2025, impacting $156 billion in potential investment, according to a report released in April by Data Center Watch, a project of nonpartisan AI safety research firm 10a Labs.

In Maine, Congress on April 14 approved the first bill to ban data center construction statewide. The bill must be signed by Democratic Gov. Janet Mills to take effect. In Pennsylvania, lawmakers are considering a three-year moratorium on “hyperscale” data centers. The term is loosely defined, but generally refers to a data center with 5,000 servers and more than 10,000 square feet.

Opposition to data centers is growing in the Lehigh Valley’s 7th District, a historically battleground district now represented by underdog freshman Republican Ryan McKenzie. In the Allentown suburb of South Whitehall Township, local residents are scrutinizing the Atlas Industrial Data Center. Atlas Industrial Data Center, a six-building, more than 5 million square foot data center complex planned to be built across the street from the high school, has sparked concern among local residents.

South Whitehall resident Cheryl Lutz told CNBC she’s worried about the impact the new data center will have on the value of her home, after hearing stories of soaring power bills, rolling blackouts and noise pollution that are plaguing people who live near data centers.

“Will that mean I won’t be able to sell my house?” Lutz said.

Rising electricity prices, caused in part by data centers, could pose a challenge for Republicans in the district as politicians seek to promote affordability policies in the backdrop of the Iran war.

Bolick said the data center industry’s perceived link to rising electricity prices is driving the explosive size and political salience of the opposition.

“If you were looking for a straw to stir your drink, that was the straw,” Bolick said.

Christopher Nicholas, a Republican political consultant in Pennsylvania, said Democratic challengers are trying to piggyback on the Republican approach to data centers and blame the incumbent for the resulting rise in electricity prices.

“We’re seeing candidates, especially challengers, trying to attack incumbents over increases in utility rates, especially electricity, as if the incumbent of either party is somehow in charge of utility rates,” said Nicholas, president of Eagle Consulting Group.

Dan Diorio, vice president of national policy for the Data Center Coalition, an industry group, said the industry is working on guardrails such as internalizing electricity rates and efficient use of water.

Diorio said digital infrastructure is “really the backbone of the 21st century economy.” “This is a critical part of maintaining America’s global economic competitiveness. We need to keep pace with other countries that are rapidly building both energy and digital infrastructure.”

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, electricity prices for Americans will increase by 21.7% in Pennsylvania and 8.3% nationwide in 2025. The bureau announced that it used data collected on retail sales and sales volume to calculate average retail revenue per kWh.

Nicholas said successful Republicans will empathize with voters’ energy affordability concerns rather than fight them.

“I think smart Republicans are trying to say that they, too, want lower and more stable electricity prices, and they want data centers in the right places, and I think that’s a good strategy this year,” he added.

Still, as affordability continues to tighten and voters increasingly weigh cost-of-living concerns, incumbent politicians may feel increasing pressure to take stronger positions on whether to support or oppose the construction of new data centers.

“That pressure is building,” Borick said. “Calls for some kind of clear leadership are starting to emerge more regularly. And they’re becoming cautious again because this is a difficult issue to deal with.”

“The challenger has an advantage here,” Borick said. “Because a lot of this issue is going to be laid at the feet of the incumbent, rightly or wrongly.”

Lutz said that with data centers looming in the backyards of many voters in battleground states, politicians’ responses to data center construction will weigh on the minds of voters at the polls in a way never seen before.

“If I’m running in November, it’s important that I address what to do with data centers,” Lutz said. “That’s definitely going to be on everyone’s mind. So if they ignore it, I think it’s at their own peril.”

—CNBC’s Garrett Downs and Emily Wilkins contributed to this report.