islamabad —
The streets of Islamabad were emptied of traffic after a sudden two-day public holiday declared to enforce a strict security lockdown in Pakistan’s capital.
As the world holds its breath over this weekend’s fateful ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran, diplomatic activity is heating up behind the barricades.
Pakistan, which often makes international headlines for rising radicalization and economic instability, is hosting the first direct talks between Washington and the Iranian government in an effort to end a weeks-long war that has killed thousands and shocked the world.
This is a stunning turning point for a country that has historically been viewed through the lens of serious security concerns. The landmark development highlights how relations between Islamabad and the White House have evolved since the first term of President Donald Trump, who accused Pakistan of feeding Washington “only lies and deceit.”
Vice President J.D. Vance, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner are also scheduled to attend this weekend’s talks, making Vance the most senior U.S. official to visit Pakistan since 2011.
Analysts attribute this transformation to a combination of geographic necessity, deft diplomacy, and shifting regional alliances. Together, these factors have made Pakistan an essential intermediary and raised the country’s profile on the world stage.
“The fact that Pakistan was able to make this diplomatic breakthrough at the last minute definitely lends a lot of credibility,” said Farwa Aamer, director of the South Asia Initiative at the Asia Policy Institute.
“Pakistan’s active promotional efforts and successes have placed it in the spotlight as a player of agency,” Amer said, establishing Islamabad as “an active stakeholder in what the future of the broader region will be.”
Until last year, Pakistan was widely considered to be an unreliable partner of the United States, having provided aid to the United States during the war in Afghanistan while also allegedly supporting the Taliban.
The killing of Osama bin Laden by US special forces in 2011, who was found hiding about a mile from the Pakistan Military Academy in Abbottabad, greatly embarrassed the Pakistani military. The incident also sparked significant criticism among many U.S. politicians over Washington’s military support for Islamabad, including President Trump, who frequently accuses Pakistan’s military of harboring al-Qaeda leaders.
President Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, did not call either of the two Pakistani prime ministers he served during his term.
“Pakistan was actually kind of a pariah state,” said Akil Shah, a political scientist at Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service. “The Biden administration wasn’t really involved. There was no tangible strategic benefit.”
But Trump 2.0 has shaken up the mixer of U.S. diplomacy, upended friendly relations and brought enemies into the fold of the presidency if he can offer them something.
Pakistan claims to have trillions of dollars worth of rare earth and critical mineral reserves, which has attracted the attention of the US government. And after a brief conflict with arch-rival India last year, Islamabad quickly sprung into action and publicly praised President Trump’s efforts to halt the fighting.
“I think Pakistan had a real desire to expand its relationship with Washington,” said Fahad Humayun, an assistant professor of political science at Tufts University. “Pakistan came out of[the conflict with India]with some restraint because it publicly admitted that it was in favor of de-escalation and recognized the Trump administration’s role in it.”
Since then, Pakistani officials have secured rare earth deals, nominated the U.S. president for the Nobel Peace Prize, and joined President Trump’s peace commission.
President Trump even called Pakistan’s powerful military commander, Asim Munir, his “favorite field marshal,” and his acknowledgment of the role played by senior Islamabad officials during Wednesday’s ceasefire announcement drew attention.
But Islamabad also has its own reasons for wanting the war to end.
Pakistan imports much of its oil and gas from the Middle East and has been severely affected by the energy fallout from Iran’s stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz. Islamabad also signed a mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia last year, which could force Pakistan to come to Riyadh’s defense if the war spirals out of control.
“I think Pakistan had a huge stake, probably more than any other country east of Iran in this particular conflict,” Humayun said. “And the other thing to keep in mind is that Pakistan was not actually part of the anti-Iranian coalition that was starting to form.”
Pakistan shares a volatile 900-kilometre (900-kilometer) border with Iran, an area defined by deep-seated ties between Baloch tribes on both sides who have long been dissatisfied with the domination of leaders in Tehran and Islamabad. It is also home to the world’s largest Shia Muslim population outside of Iran.
Unlike other Islamic countries in the Gulf, Pakistan has no U.S. military bases and is not a target of Iranian missiles or drones. Iran also allowed Pakistani ships to bypass the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
“Pakistan turns out to be in a unique position with good relations with both Tehran and Washington,” said Amer of the Asian Social Policy Institute.
What is Pakistan’s role in the ceasefire agreement?
Pakistan’s prime minister said talks involving Iranian and US delegations were scheduled in Islamabad on Friday following reports of a ceasefire. Details such as attendees have not been confirmed. Reported by CNN’s Sophia Saifi.
This balancing act is further enhanced by Islamabad’s close ties with China, another global power. This “all-weather” partnership is rooted in mutual distrust between India and the multi-billion dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar visited Beijing last week for talks with the country’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, and analysts said the talks appeared to carry considerable weight.
“I think one thing that probably had an impact was that Pakistan established a conduit with China,” Humayun said, adding that the combination of Pakistan’s reciprocation and China’s consent “must have made a difference for the Iranians.”
With the long-awaited Islamabad summit just days away, security has been significantly strengthened across Pakistan’s capital.
The government booked the Serena Hotel, one of the city’s most ornate hotels, known for its carved wooden panels and rose-colored chandeliers. Current occupants have been asked to leave and have been compensated for their relocation.
But even as diplomats and officials work to prepare for talks, the nascent ceasefire is already being tested.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed that shipping operations through the crucial Strait of Hormuz had been halted in what it said was a violation of Israel’s ceasefire in Lebanon, which has left more than 180 people dead.
Pakistan does not recognize the state of Israel but condemned the invasion. “Israel’s actions undermine international efforts to establish peace and stability in the region,” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said in a statement.
In Islamabad, hotel bookings are rapidly increasing as journalists scramble to apply for visas to cover the historic talks. In a hurry, preparations are being made for a significant change in Pakistan’s strategic relevance.
“All these things have really come together to allow Pakistan to position itself very strategically at this moment,” Humayun said.
