The Gulf region breathed a collective sigh of relief late Tuesday after Iran and the United States agreed to a two-week ceasefire, halting escalating attacks and incendiary rhetoric for more than a month.
Hours earlier, US President Donald Trump threatened to wipe out “an entire civilization” and the Iranian government warned of further attacks across the Gulf and beyond.
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But 90 minutes before Trump’s deadline to force Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz or send it “back to the stone age”, the U.S. president announced that they had agreed to halt attacks on Iran for two weeks. That was conditional on the resumption of maritime transport in the vital waterway, which normally transports 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas. Iran has responded to a joint U.S.-Israel offensive since February 28, which has brought traffic through the chokepoint to a near standstill.
In a separate message, Trump said the 10-point plan presented by Iran was a “workable basis for negotiations.” According to Iranian state media, one of Iran’s talking points is that it maintains control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a two-week deal would only be possible through “coordination” with Iran’s military.
Negotiations are scheduled to begin over the weekend in Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad, but experts say Gulf states remain wary that a desperate United States might agree to terms that would give Iran some control over the Strait of Hormuz.
“There is a quiet but palpable concern that President Trump, eager for a quick political victory, may put optics ahead of realities in the Gulf and allow some degree of Iranian influence over the strait in exchange for a fragile ceasefire,” said Hesham Alghanam, a scholar at the Saudi-based Malcolm H. Carr Carnegie Middle East Center.
The six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have sounded the alarm in a series of statements as they face near-daily Iranian missile and drone attacks. In various expressions, both countries welcomed the ceasefire but stressed that the Strait of Hormuz should be reopened and that any agreement must lead to a permanent and long-term arrangement.
Al-Ghanam said the alternative, where a weakened but strong and intact Iranian leadership dictates a crisis in the strait, would be a nightmare scenario for the energy-rich Gulf states, which would be under constant threat of chaos and economic blackmail.
“It increases the likelihood of future war over time, while at the same time forcing the GCC to continue living under Iranian strategic pressure indefinitely. It is this suspended tension that makes it so unacceptable,” he added.
“Kill two birds with one stone”
In remarks early Wednesday that shocked many, President Trump said a joint U.S.-Iranian venture could be established to establish tolls in the Strait of Hormuz. “This is a way to protect it and also a way to protect it from a lot of other people,” he said. The White House later announced that the president was considering the idea, but added that his immediate priority “is to reopen the Strait without restriction, with or without tolls.”
Another bad scenario for the Gulf states would be for the war to end with Iran still free to attack.
Despite the United States boasting military victories and claiming that 90 percent of Iran’s firepower has been destroyed, a weakened Iranian military was able to launch precise attacks when and where it needed to, including vital energy infrastructure. On Wednesday, after the ceasefire was announced, dozens of Iranian missiles and drones were launched toward the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.
Since the start of the war, GCC countries have refrained from participating in the conflict and maintained a defensive posture against Iranian salvos. But Bahrain and the UAE are among the countries increasingly adopting tougher rhetoric, including warnings that patience is not “limitless.”
There are also concerns across the Gulf about Iran’s future influence in the Strait of Hormuz.
Tuesday’s U.N. Security Council resolution, proposed by Bahrain, called for empowering states to use defense missions to keep maritime chokepoints open. The bid was supported by Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Jordan. Russia and China vetoed the resolution.
Mohamed Abu Shahab, UAE Permanent Representative to the United Nations, said: “No country should have the power to cut off the arteries of global commerce. The Security Council had a responsibility to act and failed. The Strait of Hormuz cannot be a bargaining chip for Iran or a lever in broader world politics.”
Further escalation could have devastating consequences for the economies of the GCC countries, undermining decades of efforts to make the region a safe hub for finance, tourism and culture, efforts already undermined by war. Analysts say this is one reason why GCC countries stepped up diplomacy ahead of the conflict.
But regional officials have repeatedly warned that Iran should not mistake its inaction as a sign of weakness. And the calculus could change if Iran and the United States fail to find a solution that includes a return to free navigation in the Gulf.
“If Iran continues on its path of aggression, the Gulf region will resort to all means necessary,” said political analyst and Kuwait University professor Hamad Altunayan. It added: “Gulf countries expect their interests to be represented and included in any agreement with Iran.”
Even if the GCC’s concerns are taken into account, there is no guarantee that Iran and the United States will agree to a permanent ceasefire in future talks.
While the fate of the Strait of Hormuz has attracted global attention, one of President Trump’s justifications for attacking Iran was the elimination of Iran’s nuclear program. In the latest talks, Iran indicated it was willing to discuss its limits, but had always ruled out a complete dismantling, which President Trump had wanted.
That commitment still remains. “The president’s red line remains unchanged: the end of Iranian wealth in Iran,” White House press secretary Caroline Leavitt said.
