Congressman Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana) during a press conference at the U.S. Capitol on Monday, November 3, 2025 in Washington, DC, USA.
Aaron Schwartz | Bloomberg | Getty Images
House Minority Leader Steve Scalise said Thursday that Republicans still have a chance to win a majority in the 2026 midterm elections, even though the party faces strong headwinds ahead of a crucial November campaign.
Polls show voters’ attitudes toward President Donald Trump and Congressional Republicans have worsened ahead of the election, largely due to dissatisfaction with the economy. According to a recent AP-NORC poll, President Trump’s approval rating on the economy has soared to 30%, and a whopping 70% disapprove of his performance.
The stakes are high in this election, which will effectively determine whether Trump enters 2027 as a lame duck with a Democratic Congress or maintains a Republican majority for the final two years of his term.
Scalise argued in an interview Thursday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that the Republican Party can still weather the storm caused in part by soaring prices from the war with Iran.
“This is a path focused on turnout, number one and delivering what we delivered to finally turn around this mess that we inherited a year and a half ago,” Scalise said.
Americans are enduring soaring gas prices due to the war with Iran ahead of the summer driving season, but the situation shows little sign of easing. us crude oil As of Thursday morning, gas prices were hovering around $105, according to AAA, with gas prices currently averaging $4.30 per gallon nationally. Voters have also repeatedly criticized Trump and Republicans on the cost of living, with Democrats winning a landslide victory on affordability in key elections in the off-season in 2025.
Scalise also criticized Democrats for resisting funding for the Department of Homeland Security and argued that Republicans could win on immigration in 2024 and again in 2026.
“Midterm elections are always tough for incumbent parties, but this is not your father’s Democratic Party,” Scalise said. “Democrats in Washington have voted against these measures every step of the way, including shutting down the entire Department of Homeland Security. At the end of the day, this is bad for them…so they’re going to have to give that answer in November.”
Democrats are resisting funding for DHS after President Trump’s immigration crackdown in Minnesota left two Americans dead. President Trump’s approval rating also declined in the AP-NORC poll on immigration, with only 40% of voters supporting him.
Democrats are heavily favored to take the House in November, holding a roughly 5.2 percentage point lead in RealClearPolitics’ popular vote average. Republicans gained a majority of three to five seats due to resignations and deaths of Democratic House members.
But the Senate will be an even tougher battle for Democrats. The party needs to overcome a difficult situation this cycle. To change the balance of power in the Senate, Democrats would need to flip at least four states while retaining all the seats they currently hold.
“This is a tall order, especially as Republicans currently enjoy a significant fundraising advantage, and we expect Democrats to fall just short, ultimately winning between 49 and 50 seats. Our base case remains that Republicans will maintain a narrow majority in the Senate,” said a recent Wolf Research report obtained by CNBC.
—CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
