U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made his first appearance on Capitol Hill since the conflict broke out, clashing with U.S. lawmakers over the cost of the war against Iran. The conflict is now in its third month.
The Pentagon said at a House Armed Services Committee hearing on Wednesday that the United States spent $25 billion on the war against Iran, mostly to maintain munitions and equipment.
But Democratic leaders and several economists believe that number is a significant underestimate. They say the actual cost to the U.S. economy and the country’s 330 million people could reach between $630 billion and $1 trillion.
“The biggest challenge we face right now, our biggest enemy, is the reckless, feckless, defeatist rhetoric from Democrats in Congress and some Republicans,” Hegseth said, slamming members of Congress who have questioned President Donald Trump’s response to the Middle East conflict.
As the U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran drags on with no deal in sight, the Trump administration has requested a $1.5 trillion defense budget for next year, a 42% increase or the largest military spending increase since World War II.
So how much is the war against Iran costing the United States? Does the answer depend on which perspective is more important?
What did the Pentagon reveal on Capitol Hill?
The back-and-forth hearing on Capitol Hill comes amid growing backlash the Trump administration faces over a lack of transparency surrounding Iran’s war spending.
The Pentagon’s acting comptroller, Jay Hurst, who testified alongside Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Kaine, told Adam Smith, the committee’s top Democrat from Washington, about the estimated $25 billion figure.
“Once we have fully assessed the costs of the conflict, we will develop a supplemental proposal (for additional funding) through the White House and submit it to Congress,” Hurst said, promising to provide a breakdown of the costs at a later date.
Mr Hirst said the estimate reflects only the “cost of war” and “incorporates the cost of munitions and other operational costs into that total cost”.
In March, Pentagon officials told Congress that the cost of the war was $11.3 billion in the first six days. The Pentagon’s estimate is also significantly smaller than the $200 billion the Trump administration originally requested for the war.
At least 3,375 people have been killed in attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel since February 28, according to Tehran’s Health Ministry. The U.S. military has confirmed 14 combat-related deaths and more than 200 injuries among service members.
Did the Democratic Party buy it?
Democratic lawmakers who questioned Mr. Hegseth and his associates did not accept answers about the cost of the Iran war.
Congressman Ro Khanna said the cost of the war far exceeded the Pentagon’s estimate of $25 billion. “Do you know how much money Iran will cost Americans in gas and food over the next year?” Khanna asked.
As the United States continues to blockade Iranian ports and Tehran seizes control of the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. gasoline prices have hit a new high of $4.23 a gallon, the highest since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. The Brent crude oil benchmark is trading above $120.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released earlier this week showed the president’s approval ratings hit a record low in his second term, as gas prices rose 40% since before the war. Only 22% of Americans approved of President Trump’s handling of the cost of living.
Mr. Khanna argued that the war would cost the U.S. economy about $631 billion, or about $5,000 per household, through higher gasoline and food prices.
“You don’t know how much we pay for the missiles that hit Iranian schools. You don’t know how much we pay for gasoline. You don’t know how much we pay for food,” Khanna told Hegseth. “Your $25 billion figure is completely wrong.”
Linda Bilmes, a leading economist at Harvard University, predicted that the total cost of the war could reach $1 trillion.
What is the cost of war other than bombs and missiles?
The US earlier claimed it had struck more than 13,000 targets in the first 39 days of hostilities with Iran before a fragile ceasefire took effect.
For context, the US launched more Patriot missiles in the first four days of the Iran war than it had delivered to Ukraine in the previous four years. These defense system missiles cost $4 million each, but the missiles had shot down Iranian Shahed drones worth less than $50,000 each.
But the economics and impact of war go far beyond the value of bombs and missiles.
One of the main costs is rebuilding and repairing damaged assets.
After former supreme leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated in a U.S. and Israeli airstrike on the first day of the war, Iran’s government initially responded by firing salvos of missiles and drones at U.S. military facilities and embassies in the Gulf region.
Iranian airstrikes have damaged U.S. military camps in Kuwait, as well as military bases such as Al Dhafra Air Base and Al Ruwais Military Base in the United Arab Emirates, Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, and Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan.
Earlier this month, NBC News quoted six U.S. officials saying the damage Iran has inflicted on U.S. military bases and equipment in the Middle East is far worse than publicly acknowledged. The damage alone could cost billions of dollars in repairs.
Another New York Times report estimates that repairs alone to the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain could cost $200 million.
Hegseth declined to say whether the figure included repairing damage to U.S. military bases. At last week’s budget briefing, Hurst, the acting Pentagon inspector general, told reporters that the U.S. government “does not have final numbers on the amount of damage to our facilities overseas.”
In response to a question about the cost of repairing facilities damaged in the Iran war, he added that the ministry was still considering “what we want to build in the future.”
“Our partners may also invest in its construction,” Hurst added. Economists, meanwhile, believe the U.S. bill could rise even more if it is asked by its Gulf allies to help repair the country’s attack on Iran.
What does war cost other than fighting?
Birmes, a professor of finance at the Harvard Kennedy School, estimated in February 2006 that the Iraq war would cost the United States $3 trillion. Then George Bush’s administration told the American people that the fighting would cost $50 billion.
Twenty years later, Birmes achieved the most accurate prediction. The total cost of the Iraq war is currently estimated at $2 trillion, but Birmes believes the real cost was much higher.
“Wars always cost more than expected. Throughout history, people who go to war tend to be optimistic about the cost and the time it will take,” Birmes said in an interview at Harvard Kennedy School.
“It’s difficult to measure the exact costs, but based on what we currently know,[the current Iran war]is costing about $2 billion a day in short-term upfront costs, and that’s just the tip of the iceberg,” she said.
Birmes pointed out that apart from the short-term costs of war, long-term costs after the war end include things like caring for veterans and replenishing weapons stocks.
“We are confident that it will reach $1 trillion for the Iran war,” she concluded.
