President Donald Trump faces the risk that Iran could close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the conflict in the Middle East escalates, a scenario that would drastically reduce oil supplies to an already severely disrupted market.
Bab el-Mandeb is one of the world’s trade hubs, connecting the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Arabian Sea. It has served as a key relief valve for oil markets as Iranian attacks on tankers and cargo ships have sharply reduced exports through the Strait of Hormuz.
After shutting down the Hormuz River, Saudi Arabia ramped up the flow of oil through its East-West pipeline, moving millions of barrels a day into the Red Sea. These barrels cross the Bab el-Mandeb River to Asia, helping to make up for some of the lost supply to major economies such as Japan and South Korea.
Exports of oil and products through the Bab el-Mandeb nearly doubled to 7.2 million barrels per day in April, compared to 3.9 million barrels per day in February, before the US and Israel attacked Iran, according to data provided by Kupler.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards on Monday threatened to close Bab el-Mandeb unless Israel halts its attacks in Gaza and Lebanon, according to Iran’s state news agency Tasnim. The Iranian government insists that any peace deal with the United States must include Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon.
Matt Smith, head of commodity research at Kepler, said if Iran shut down the Bab el-Mandeb River, it would cut off Saudi barrels heading to Asia.
“That would be a step forward both in terms of escalation and in terms of market impact,” Smith said. He said the flow of oil through the Red Sea was one of the factors keeping oil prices soaring.
U.S. crude oil prices soared 8% to a high on Monday following Iranian threats against Bab el-Mandeb. Prices fell after Israel and Lebanon agreed on Wednesday to implement a ceasefire, but there is no certainty that the ceasefire will actually take effect.
Iran’s Lebanese ally Hezbollah, which acts independently of the Beirut government, rejected the ceasefire agreement on Thursday. “We need to disarm Hezbollah and demilitarize Lebanon,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told CNBC on Wednesday.
The ceasefire between the United States and Iran remains fragile. Washington and the Iranian government engaged in a gun battle in and around the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week. If the U.S. escalates military action, Iran’s natural reaction would be to target Bab el-Mandeb, Smith said.
Iran’s allies in Yemen, the Houthis, have so far had little involvement in the war. The Houthis attacked commercial ships in the Red Sea between 2023 and 2025 in retaliation for Israel’s war in Gaza. Traffic on the Bab el-Mandeb River has decreased dramatically and has not fully recovered.
The Trump administration waged a 52-day air war against the Houthis, ending with a ceasefire in May 2025. The United States called off the attacks in exchange for the insurgents ceasing attacks on U.S.-flagged vessels in the Red Sea.
Jack Kennedy, head of Middle East country risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the Houthis may wait to join the current conflict until Iran’s leadership deems it advantageous to open another front.
Mr Smith said the Houthis did not need to do much to block traffic on the Bab el-Mandeb river.
“You don’t need to fire at every tanker that passes through there,” the Kpler analyst said. “A few specific targets would be enough to start blocking passage there.”
