What would you do with an $80,000 bonus, more than four times your average annual salary? Or $140,000 in debt forgiveness?
These questions are being asked of Russian men as the military advertises multi-million ruble incentives to fight in Ukraine. Advertisements plastered on roadside billboards and embedded in young people’s social media feeds offer eye-watering sums of money, more than many people earn in years, with promises of becoming a “hero” or quickly obtaining Russian citizenship.
However, military recruitment in the first quarter of this year was 20% lower than in 2025, and there are still signs of weakness, according to Russian economics expert Janis Kluge.
The Kremlin’s strategy has long been to outwit Ukraine in a war of attrition, benefiting from its vast population and large military industry that allows it to sustain slow, grueling operations. Now, as the Ukraine war enters its fifth year, President Vladimir Putin is getting a much-needed boost to his war spending thanks to soaring oil prices from the Iran war.
problem?
“The ruble doesn’t go to war,” said Nigel Gould-Davies, senior Russia and Eurasia researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). He pointed out that this is the first war in Russia’s history in which the state is paying its citizens to fight rather than forcing them, leading to economic burdens and personnel problems.
“There are signs that this incentive may no longer be working effectively and that Russia is starting to lose more troops than it can recruit,” Gould-Davis said in a recent report.
Analysts say the Russian government is increasingly resorting to desperate measures to shore up its forces, and Putin is likely to be forced to make even more unpopular decisions this year if he wants to continue his invasion of Ukraine.
After all, if potential recruits were reluctant to accept big signing bonuses last year, it’s unclear what will change their minds, especially given reports of poor treatment at the front and soldiers bribing officers to avoid being sent to deadly ground missions.
Russia has already sent tens of thousands of former prisoners of war to the front lines, reinforced them with three waves of North Korean soldiers and encouraged migrants to join the military. The government recently announced a new recruitment drive, offering to repay debts of up to $140,000 to men who could face penalties if they fail to register.
And the conflict’s depletion of fighting-age men is also having an impact on other parts of Russia’s economy, which is currently facing a broader labor crisis.
“We’re not just having a hard time finding people to go to the front lines…we’re having a hard time finding people to hire,” Gould-Davis told CNN.
Regarding the defense industry in particular, there are signs that factories are already operating at maximum capacity, with factories operating around the clock. This means that while it will be difficult for Russia to increase military production any further, the demand for factory workers will place an even greater strain on the rest of the economy.
“The entire Russian economy is suffering from the most severe labor shortage in history,” Gould-Davies said.
According to some Western intelligence reports, nearly 500,000 Russian soldiers died in the war, and hundreds of thousands more left the country to avoid conscription. The resulting labor shortage is pushing up wages, another source of inflation in the country.
“Labor is a more scarce input than physical capital or finance, and it’s also harder to grow,” says Gould-Davies. “If we try, we can build new factories and raise money. But the state cannot determine the birth rate.”
Labor shortages could force the Kremlin to recruit more labor from India, North Korea, and various African countries to ease pressure on both the civilian and military sectors.
More dramatically, it could mean a second forced mobilization of the military, along with measures such as restricting the freedom of citizens, especially men of draft age, to leave the country. Putin wanted to avoid the first “partial mobilization”, which was highly unpopular and forced many Russians into exile.
“The Kremlin will soon face a fundamental choice: to radically escalate its demands on Russia’s economy and society, or to scale back its war objectives,” Gould-Davies predicts.
Some experts, including Maria Snegovaya of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, believe the Kremlin could successfully solve the recruitment problem by putting more pressure on regions outside of major cities like Moscow, forcing students to sign military contracts, and recruiting more foreigners. The fact that the defense sector is approaching maximum capacity also poses difficulties for Putin, but “not catastrophic,” Snegovaya said.
But on the economic front, “strains are becoming more and more pronounced,” Snegovaya told CNN. “This year in particular shows us that the economic costs will ultimately impose difficult trade-offs on the Kremlin.”
He noted that the “financial burden of sustaining the war effort” is increasing, given that Russia’s military personnel and recruitment costs account for tens of billions of dollars each year, representing 9.5% of the total federal budget and, by some estimates, 2% of the country’s GDP.
Snegovaya said Russia is experiencing sluggish growth and, some economists estimate, even a recession, as well as widespread business closures and declining consumer confidence.
Although wages have increased slightly, incomes have not kept pace with persistent inflation. According to Russia’s state-run Mediatas news agency, the official annual inflation rate as of June was 5.52%. Russian households are facing food prices that have increased by more than 18% since January 2024, soaring utility bills, and a recent 2 percentage point increase in consumption tax. Ukraine’s attacks on critical Russian infrastructure have also led to gasoline shortages in some regions and prolonged airport delays.
Snegovaya said that although overall inflation has slowed again, consumer sentiment on the issue remains negative.
“These trends… could weaken support for the war and increase social discontent,” Snegovaya said. “However, the regime is strengthening its repression mechanisms.”
“The Kremlin tends to double its targets rather than shrink them,” the analyst warned.
Meanwhile, advances in Ukraine’s drone warfare and technology mean its military is inflicting far more casualties on Russia than earlier in the war.
Katerina Stepanenko, an analyst at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), said “Ukraine’s military is exceedingly successful and innovative” on the battlefield, particularly when it comes to the use of tactical drones.
Earlier this year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy claimed that for the first time, the Ukrainian military had captured Russian positions using only drones and robots, and had conducted more than 22,000 unmanned ground missions using robots in the first three months of 2026 alone.
Ukraine gained nearly 100 square kilometers (39 square miles) of net territory in May, marking the second consecutive month in which Russian forces suffered net losses, according to General Oleksandr Shirushkyi.
Western officials say the number of Russian casualties per month ranges from about 30,000 to 35,000, although estimates vary. Mr. Shirschiy claimed in May that Ukrainian drone operators killed and injured more soldiers than Russia could recruit.
And while Ukraine’s war techniques are improving, experts say Russia’s military is weakening as it sends more former prisoners of war and untrained soldiers to the front.
Efforts to recruit students to Russia’s own specialized drone force have run into distrust and setbacks after Russia’s Ministry of Defense forced some drone operators to work on front-line ground attacks, Stepanenko said.
“This has led to a completely useless PR campaign for the forced adoption of unmanned systems,” Stepanenko said.
CNN’s Anna Chernova contributed to this report.
