SpaceX will IPO on Nasdaq on June 12, 2026.
Adam Jeffrey | CNBC
space x An options trade on the first day of trading had about a 15% chance that the stock would rise 50%, and a similar chance that it would lose half its value over the next three months, Susquehanna said.
Susquehanna strategist Chris Murphy wrote in a note Tuesday that the stock’s call volume was the fifth highest of the day.
“Large trades increasingly look like hedges tied to future supply risk,” Murphy wrote. “Upside calls reflect demand for further jumps, while downside puts reflect concerns about locked-up supply, valuation risk, and the possibility that initial enthusiasm after going public may fade. The result is a difficult trading environment. It looks too high to buy on the downside, but also too risky to sell.”
SpaceX stock rose another day after Friday’s initial public offering, rising about 50% from its IPO price and giving it a market capitalization that exceeds Amazon’s and approaches Microsoft’s valuation. The option reflects intense debate over whether the company can live up to its initial ambitions.
Current pricing suggests a roughly 15% chance SpaceX will rise another 50% by September, while suggesting a roughly 13% chance the stock will fall 50%, Murphy wrote.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” that investors are “trading the story, trading the action, trading the excitement, trading Elon Musk, but at some point you meet a path in that the fundamentals have to match that excitement.”
He added: “There’s certainly an upside if it can deliver, but the valuation is so large that the company will need to really push to grow to that valuation.” “I think it will take at least a few years.”
