This screenshot from a video released by U.S. Central Command shows U.S. forces operating in the Arabian Sea imposing a naval blockade on an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to sail toward an Iranian port in the Arabian Sea on April 19, 2026.
U.S. Central Command | Getty Images
At least three Iranian tankers carrying nearly 5 million barrels of crude oil have escaped the U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on their first overseas shipments in two months, as shipowners cautiously reposition themselves ahead of the signing of a deal between the United States and Iran in Geneva on Friday.
Two supertankers named Diona and Hero 2, both owned by the Iranian National Tanker Company and under U.S. sanctions, breached the U.S. Navy’s blockade perimeter with a total of 3.8 million barrels of Iranian crude oil, according to shipping data provided by Kpler.
A third Iranian-linked tanker carrying 1 million barrels of Iranian crude left the blockade on Wednesday, Kupler news agency reported.
“The apparent exit from the blockade suggests that other Iranian trading tankers are also preparing to resume trade,” said Michel Wiese Bockman, senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward.
The United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on Monday to end the nearly four-month war, with a formal signing ceremony scheduled for Friday in Geneva. Details of the deal were not disclosed, but it is expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and waive sanctions on Iranian oil sales.
Washington will allow Iran to begin selling oil and fuel immediately if the deal is signed this week, in exchange for promises to curb Iran’s nuclear program, The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday.
Before the war, about a fifth of the world’s oil flowed through the Strait of Hormuz, but it was effectively closed during the conflict. The U.S. Navy has blockaded Iranian ports and Iran, targeting ships with ties to countries it considers hostile, stranding hundreds of ships and disrupting global energy flows.
The maritime industry is treating the news with more cautious disbelief than celebration.
lloyd list intelligence
With the prospect of reopening, some shipowners, hit by months of high freight rates and war risk insurance premiums, have begun repositioning vessels toward Gulf ports in anticipation of a surge in replenishment demand, but most are more cautious and continue to hold back.
Lloyd’s List Intelligence said: “The maritime industry is treating this news with more cautious disbelief than celebration.”
Lloyds analysts say insurers are sticking to high premiums associated with war risks and want “robust evidence” that waterways will remain safe. “While a pause in combat will free up stranded sailors and stimulate tanker and bulk markets, the industry views this as a fragile reprieve rather than a return to normalcy,” analysts said in a note to clients on Tuesday.
But while some very large crude carrier (VLCC) owners are positioning tankers for the Middle East Gulf to gain “first-mover advantage”, others plan to hold back, Lloyds said.
Dozens of VLCCs have sailed from the South China Sea across the Indian Ocean to ports in the United Arab Emirates, where at least 30 vessels were already anchored, according to maritime information firm Windward.
Both blockades will remain in place until the deal is formally signed on Friday, and traffic through the strait is expected to remain minimal for now. Tim Wilkins, managing director of the independent tanker group Intertanco, said the Navy reminded the industry that “until a deal is signed, nothing has changed and nothing will change.”
The scale of the backlog is significant. Kupler estimates that 118 loaded tankers could leave the region within 15 days of the deal being signed, but the surge in ship departures is likely to be a temporary event rather than a permanent recovery in traffic.
“Most ship owners appear to be cautiously waiting for further details before planning new passages through the Strait of Hormuz,” said Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO. “Before they allow ships to pass through the straits, they will seek reassurance that passage is not only permitted but safe.”
