Israel’s upcoming elections will decide the legacy of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who faces mounting pressure over his handling of wars in the region and corruption charges.
Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, is seen as the ultimate survivor in Israeli politics. But ahead of the next general election scheduled for October, he now faces his biggest challenge yet, one that could bring his nearly 40-year political career to a harsh end.
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The backdrop is a torrent of political events after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly persuaded US President Donald Trump to join the war against Iran on February 28, after which Iran reportedly launched its own attacks against Israel, Gulf states and ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel is embroiled in a new war with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah in the north. Prime Minister Netanyahu is therefore caught between pressure from the United States to halt military attacks on Lebanon and the Israeli public’s desire to continue fighting Iran and its regional proxies.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Netanyahu also faces widespread public anger over his failure to hold an independent public inquiry into his government’s failures before and after the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023.
After the ensuing genocidal war in Gaza, Israel faced increased international scrutiny of its actions, became an outcast in some countries, and faced growing criticism within the US political establishment.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Netanyahu still faces multiple corruption charges dating back to 2019 and could be jailed if convicted of these charges.
After all, Israel’s elections come at one of the most critical moments for Prime Minister Netanyahu and the country.
“(Netanyahu) seems to be in a real corner,” political analyst Nimrod Flaschenberg told Al Jazeera. “The US-Iran deal is not very well received and it is not at all clear to the people what is happening in Lebanon.
“Whether it’s a cease-fire, a withdrawal or something else, no one knows. And the press here is very suspicious. Finally, there’s the question of the United States. Israelis have long wanted to think they can act autonomously, but recent events have really shown that that is a fiction.”
rock or hard place
The Israeli people are keenly aware of the importance of U.S. support to their national security. Israel and the United States now appear to have very different views on the future of the Lebanon war, with President Trump keen to maintain peace with Iran and reduce the fighting so that shipping in the Strait of Hormuz can return to normal.
A new Israeli attack in southern Lebanon threatens the stability of the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States, as Iran has ensured that Lebanon is part of the end-of-war agreement with the United States.
Prime Minister Netanyahu has been criticized by both dovish and hawkish factions in Israel for his military operations in Lebanon, and the right has called on him to continue the war and defeat Hezbollah, a difficult task given resistance by armed groups and pressure from the United States. Some recognize that going against President Trump’s wishes would put further pressure on the U.S.-Israel relationship.
Israel still illegally occupies about a fifth of Lebanon, and a framework agreement signed with Beirut in Washington on Friday leaves its future military presence in the country uncertain. Recent polls show that almost three-quarters of Israelis support Israel’s continued occupation of Lebanon, while just over one in 10 opposes it.
Gadi Eisenkot, a former Israeli military chief of staff and Netanyahu’s current main political challenger, blamed the current conflict between the United States and Israel on Netanyahu’s inability to clearly explain his country’s strategy in Lebanon to Washington.
“We are unable to capitalize on our military achievements and have woken up to a security reality that cannot be tolerated,” Eisenkot said in a Hebrew-language podcast, referring to Israel’s stalled invasion. “The fact that Israel would need Washington’s approval to carry out an attack on Lebanon is inconceivable.”
“Many of the rebels are outmaneuvering him from the right by claiming that they have their own magical military or diplomatic solution to what’s happening in Lebanon,” said former Israeli government adviser Daniel Levy. “[And]all the while Netanyahu will be playing his time and working aggressively to undermine the US-Iran deal.”
US relations
Under the terms of a memorandum of understanding signed by Iran and the United States on June 18, the two countries and their allies commit to “an immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.” Perhaps most importantly for Netanyahu, he says both countries will guarantee “Lebanon’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.”
Nevertheless, Israel has publicly refused to withdraw from Lebanese territory and continues to attack, with some 4,230 people killed and another 12,179 injured in the latest conflict since March 2. Meanwhile, towns in northern Israel remain within range of Hezbollah’s rockets and drones, and the Lebanese insurgents are far from defeated.
“Prime Minister Netanyahu promised the people of northern Israel a future that he could never achieve,” said political analyst Ori Goldberg.
“He promised a morning where you could wake up and look out your window and not have to see an Arab. But I don’t know if people really believed that or thought that could happen. People are tired and desperate for some kind of normalcy, whatever that is. So Netanyahu may have some room to maneuver Lebanon and get away with it.”
However, Israel’s continued presence in Lebanon may be short-lived. According to media reports, President Trump is disgusted with Netanyahu’s actions in Lebanon and elsewhere, and in one phone conversation he described the Israeli prime minister as “crazy.”
On June 7, President Trump told the Financial Times that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must abide by the ceasefire agreement between Washington and Iran, insisting, “I make all the decisions. He doesn’t make all the decisions.”
Levy, a former Israeli government adviser, pointed out that President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu had seven face-to-face meetings in the first 13 months of the U.S. presidency, but have not met since they both launched a war against Iran on February 28, 2026.
“That will worry Prime Minister Netanyahu. Now he will probably be looking for another meeting… to think about what he can do to get the US president back and do it before the elections,” Levy told Al Jazeera.
“Ultimately, Prime Minister Netanyahu is looking at the minute hand and avoiding the hour hand. Time is that urgent.”
