The United States and Iran struck in their first clash since reaching a preliminary agreement on June 15 to end a months-long war.
Both sides accused each other of violating the terms of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed by US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
At the center of the recent escalation is the struggle for control of the Strait of Hormuz, which was closed by Iran in response to the war between the United States and Israel. Tehran has used the waterway, a global energy chokepoint, as a strategic geopolitical leverage point.
So what is behind the US attack on Iranian territory, and where did the Iranian government strike back? Will it undermine the agreement between the two sides?
Where did the US attack and why?
U.S. Central Command said late Friday that military aircraft had struck missile and drone storage sites and radar sites along Iran’s southern coastline “in a strong response to yesterday’s attack on a merchant ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz.”
On Thursday, the Singapore-flagged merchant ship Ever Love was struck by an unknown projectile off the coast of Oman. Iran did not acknowledge the attack, but neither did it deny it.
President Trump called the attack a “stupid violation” of the ceasefire agreement, adding that U.S. forces also intercepted three other drones launched in the same coordinated attack.
The U.S. military later released a grainy black-and-white video of the explosion, labeled “unclassified,” and noted that “the unwarranted attack on a commercial vessel by Iranian forces is a clear violation of the ceasefire.”
The US military noted that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has increased since the deal was signed, adding: “Iran’s dangerous actions have undermined freedom of navigation as commerce increasingly flows through the critical international trade corridor.”
It added that the United States would continue to provide “safe navigation coordination and assistance” to commercial vessels transiting the straits.
Iran announced that a projectile struck the vicinity of a pier in Shirik, southern Hormozgan province.
Iran’s Mehr news agency quoted the head of the port in eastern Hormozgan as saying that there was no damage to the port of Sirik and that the equipment was operating normally without any damage.
Where will Iran attack and why?
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said it responded with attacks on US military facilities in the region. Tehran did not provide details about what may have been the attack.
In a statement to government news agency IRNA, the Revolutionary Guards warned that “in the event of a repeat invasion, our response will be broader than this.”
On Saturday, Bahrain’s Foreign Ministry condemned the “alleged Iranian drone attack on its territory,” calling it a grave violation of sovereignty and international law. The spokesperson said the incident endangered civilians and undermined efforts to de-escalate tensions in the region, and held the Iranian government responsible for escalating tensions.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said on Saturday that the tanker had been struck by an unidentified projectile, adding that all crew members were reported to be safe.
Late Thursday, the Revolutionary Guards warned against alternative routes for the waterway. The ministry said only routes approved by the Iranian government can guarantee safe passage through the strategic waterway.
The warning came after Oman announced a new route in the southern part of the strait, close to the Omani coast.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned the U.S. attack, saying the targeting of coastal observation facilities violated Article 1 of the memorandum, which requires a cessation of hostilities on all fronts. Tehran said the US attack also violated the United Nations Charter.
Later, Mohsen Rezaei, an adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, accused the US of violating Article 5 of the Memorandum of Understanding, which stipulates that safe navigation of commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz must be restored.
Article 5 also provides that Iran and Oman will discuss future management and maritime services in the waterway.
Who controls the Strait of Hormuz?
Iran claims to maintain control and control of the waterway, which has become its biggest bargaining chip in negotiations with the United States and Israel.
Iran’s de facto blockade of the strait triggered a global energy crisis. Soaring fuel prices in the United States due to the war have increased political pressure on Mr. Trump to end the war.
The Iranian government aims to impose tolls and fees on ships passing through the waterway. Leaders insist the strait will never return to its pre-war condition. The United States and Gulf states rejected the idea of paying Iran for transportation.
Iran first released its own map in April showing approved shipping routes, directing ships to sail much closer to Iran’s coastline than before the conflict, and also established a body to manage the strait.
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Ghalibabadi said, “Any credible framework must be based on coordination with Iran and the provisions of Section 5 of the Islamabad Memorandum.”
According to the memorandum, Iran agreed to “use its best efforts to provide free and safe passage for commercial vessels from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa for a period of 60 days.”
It also provides for consultations between Iran, Oman and other Gulf states on future arrangements to govern navigation through the waterway “in line with applicable international law and the sovereignty of the Strait of Hormuz states.”
The agreement does not specify what happens after the initial 60-day period.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday that Iran will not be allowed to charge tolls or fees on ships passing through the waterway.
Both sides have set a 60-day deadline for a final agreement.
Al Jazeera’s Resul Serdar Atas, reporting from Tehran, said the recent escalation was the main threat to the ongoing negotiations.
“The reason the Iranians are so insistent on this (taking control of Hormuz) is because the Strait of Hormuz is their greatest leverage. They believe that if they lose that means of pressure, their hand at the negotiating table will be significantly weakened.”
Is the memorandum beginning to unravel?
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible States, told Al Jazeera that the strike is “definitely putting a lot of stress on the memorandum.”
“Meanwhile, the United States and Iran may continue to fire at each other in the Strait of Hormuz.” “On the one hand, the Israel-Lebanon agreement appears to contradict the Memorandum of Understanding in that it allows Israel to continue to occupy parts of Lebanon.
“Taken together, the likelihood of opposition to the memorandum increases exponentially,” he said.
Last Monday, after the first round of talks in Switzerland, mediators announced that the US and Iranian governments had agreed to establish new lines of communication to ensure the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and end fighting in Lebanon.
However, it could not prevent the recent military conflict. “If we have disagreements about how the memorandum of understanding should be applied, we can answer the phone, but we will meet violence with violence,” Vice President J.D. Vance said on X.
Andrea Dessi of the American University of Rome believes the recent escalation shows that “the memorandum of understanding is very delicate and could fall apart at any time.”
“It’s clearly in the interests of both Iran and the United States not to escalate this into another full-scale conflict.”
“Both countries have a special interest in proving that they have the ability to control and command the strait,” the analyst said.
“So this is creating some kind of tension and potential conflict that could get out of control at any time.”
