At the White House on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump treated visiting Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, 40, in a warm and enthusiastic manner, describing him as “young” and “handsome” and someone he would like to work with. They warmly shook hands.
The warning came later in the day when U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned Iraq to disarm Iranian-aligned armed groups in the country.
As the war between the U.S. and Iran escalates again, analysts say al-Zaidi’s meeting in Washington encapsulates how Iraq could find itself in trouble, balancing two important relationships it cannot afford to jeopardize: the U.S. and Iran.
What is the Iraqi Prime Minister doing in the US?
During their White House meeting, President Trump and President Al Zaidi pledged to deepen economic ties and increase Iraq’s oil production.
A source told Al Jazeera that talks are also planned between Iraqi officials and US government officials and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Iraq is aiming to obtain up to $8 billion in IMF loans, said the official, who asked not to be named.
Tuesday’s meeting came after Trump publicly opposed former Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki’s bid to become prime minister earlier this year, supporting al-Zaidi, a businessman with no political experience. Al-Maliki, a divisive figure believed to have close ties to Iran, subsequently dropped out of the race in April.
The Iraqi government previously expected several oil and gas deals to be signed during al-Zaidi’s visit to the United States, and President Trump also promised a number of deals would be signed during their Oval Office meeting.
He called Al Zaidi “a great champion, a new champion.”
“Iraq has tremendous potential for oil and other reasons, but because of oil, we’re going to do a lot of business,” Trump said.
The talks also come as the United States prepares to reduce its military presence in Iraq.
Mr. Al Zaidi and Mr. Trump have both said that the remaining U.S. troops, believed to be fewer than 2,000, will be completely withdrawn from Iraq by September 30th. This is the same day that al-Zaidi pledged that armed groups operating across Iraq would disarm.
However, later that day, Hegseth met al-Zaidi. In a post on X shortly after the meeting, Hegseth said Iraq “must assert its sovereignty and disarm Iranian-aligned militias,” criticizing the frequent attacks on U.S. forces during the U.S.-Israel war against Iran.
Analysts said it was part of a pressure that could mount on Iraq in the coming weeks.
What did Kataib Hezbollah say?
Kataib Hezbollah is part of Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance,” a loose confederation of groups that includes Palestine’s Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis. It is also one of the largest groups within the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), which was established in 2014 to stop the lightning advance by ISIL (ISIS) at the time.
The group said Tuesday it is ready to join a war against the United States if necessary.
“If a war is launched against the Islamic Republic of Iran, the participation of the resistance forces will be immediate and certain. This decision is rooted in our ideology and is non-negotiable,” said Abu Mujahid al-Assaf, a senior member of Kataib Hezbollah, according to Iran’s Fars news agency.
Iraq’s balancing act
It will not be easy for Iraq to ignore the Trump administration’s demands. dependence on U.S. companies to modernize oil and gas companies;
However, there are limits to which Iraq cannot bow down in front of the United States.
“Baghdad is courting the United States, but the United States will not tolerate its territory being used as a launching pad for attacks against Iran,” Inna Rudolph, a senior fellow at the Center for National Security at King’s College, London, told Al Jazeera.
“While successive Iraqi governments have been keen to revive and deepen ties with the United States, they have been careful to maintain a functioning relationship with Iran based on long historical, religious, commercial, and social ties.”
Approximately 60 percent of Iraq’s population is Shiite Muslims, and Iran has cultivated deep ties with many of the country’s Shiite political parties, religious networks, and armed groups. These ties, along with economic and security ties, give the Iranian government significant influence over Iraqi politics.
An official reception was held at Iraq’s Najaf International Airport for the funeral of former Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei, followed by public processions in the Iraqi cities of Najaf and Karbala.
Although Iraq denies using its territory to attack Iran, Iranian-aligned militias and political networks remain influential within Iraq’s state institutions and parliament, Rudolph added.
“It creates a double-track relationship: formal state diplomacy seeks stable and pragmatic engagement with Tehran, while parts of the political and security landscape maintain autonomous channels of influence.”
Rudolph continued: “The result is managed interdependence. Cooperation in trade, energy, and cross-border social connections coexists with distrust, internal conflicts, and the persistent risk that armed resistance groups may act independently of Baghdad’s wishes.”
How will escalation between the US and Iran affect Iraq?
Rudolph added that escalation would pose immediate and multidimensional risks to Iraq.
“First, it could have direct security ramifications. Iranian allies resisting disarmament and security reforms could attack regional targets from mainland Iraq, inviting retaliation that violates sovereignty and endangers civilians. Every attack invites retaliation, and every retaliation undermines an already fragile settlement.”
He added that Iraqi politics is already divided, and a crisis like this will exacerbate that division. The government’s coalition government may collapse, making it difficult to pass reforms.
Additionally, economic and humanitarian impacts could continue, leading to disruptions in trade and energy relations, stalled investment and reconstruction, and new displacements, Rudolph said.
“Ultimately, Iraq’s diplomatic space will shrink. Baghdad will be forced to become a site of proxy contests rather than mediation, making balanced relations and credible security reforms much more difficult.”
“The real danger is not necessarily all-out war, but a thousand small escalations that hollow out Iraq’s sovereignty.”
