US President Donald Trump is scheduled to speak at a national defense summit at the Army War College on Wednesday, where he is expected to praise investments in the US military that he claims have helped add new strength to the most powerful military in history.
But his speech came at a time when the U.S. war against Iran has significantly depleted the U.S. military’s weapons stockpile.
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The summit, to be held in Carlisle, Pennsylvania, comes as the United States has renewed its attacks on Iran over the past week and President Trump threatens to continue the war, which is highly unpopular among Americans who face a high cost of living, according to recent U.S. polls.
According to the analysis, the United States has amassed billions of dollars in arms costs since the war against Iran began on February 28, spending half of at least four of its most important military supplies.
Replenishing missing inventory could take months or years.
Analysts warn that disarmament could leave the United States in a less formidable position in a potential future conflict.
For example, Brian Finucane, a former U.S. State Department adviser and analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank, told Al Jazeera, “These are weapons that could be needed in any military contingency with China.”
Here’s what we know about US weapons inventories.
What’s going on with the war between the US and Iran?
Following a ceasefire between the United States and Iran in April and the subsequent signing of a memorandum of understanding in June, the conflict resumed last Wednesday after U.S. Central Command launched a wave of attacks on Iranian military facilities, saying the aim was to degrade Iran’s military capabilities. Large-scale, hour-long attacks continued over four nights starting Sunday, including on railway tracks and bridges.
The two sides exchanged low-intensity attacks throughout the ceasefire period. But last week, the United States escalated its airstrikes after Iran opened fire on three commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The ships were using routes not approved by Tehran.
Both countries have accused the other of violating the ceasefire, and at last week’s NATO summit, President Trump declared the deal with Iran over, but U.S. negotiators said talks could continue. The US government also reinstated a naval blockade against Iranian-linked vessels attempting to transit the waterway and reimposed sanctions on Iran.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded with retaliatory strikes against U.S. military facilities in Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, and Kuwait.
More than a dozen people, including civilians, have been killed in Iran since the new wave of attacks by the United States.
“We’re going to destroy all their power plants. We’re going to destroy all their bridges unless they come to the table and negotiate,” President Trump threatened in a Fox News interview aired on Tuesday.
Attacks on civilian infrastructure are a violation of international law.
Does the US have enough weapons to continue attacking Iran?
An analysis of US arms inventories by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington-based think tank, shows that supplies in Washington are in short supply, but not at critical levels.
During the 39-day conflict from the start of the US-Iranian war in February until the cease-fire in April, the US struck more than 13,000 targets, primarily focusing on the use of seven of its most powerful missiles and air defense systems: the Tomahawk missile, the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM), the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), the Standard Missile-3 (SM-3), and the Standard Missile-6. (SM-6), Terminal High Altitude Area Defense Missile (THAAD), and Patriot.
For at least four munitions, the U.S. government has likely used more than half of its available stockpile, although many lower-grade alternatives are still in stock, CSIS said. Government data on weapons inventories is classified.
Here’s how the ammunition was used:
Tomahawk – The United States had approximately 3,000 long-range missiles that could be fired from the sea to land targets. It is believed that more than 1,000 personnel have been used up in the war with Iran. JASSM – There were approximately 4,000 of these stealth air-launched long-range missiles in the U.S. inventory before the war. Approximately 1,100 guns were used in the war against Iran. PrSM – The supply of newly delivered land-launched long-range missiles has been low to begin with, with deliveries totaling 90 since 2023. An estimated 40 to 70 rounds were used in the war. One US military official claimed that “everything” in the inventory had been used up. SM-3 – The most expensive weapon at $28 million each, these ship-launched anti-ballistic missiles numbered approximately 410 before the war. The US used 130 to 250 of these in its war with Iran. SM-6 – Also launched from ships, this missile is primarily used to intercept aircraft and cruise missiles. The United States had a stockpile of about 1,160. The Iran War cost an estimated 190 to 370 men. THAAD – By April, the United States had about 360 expensive anti-ballistic missile systems, with 190 to 290 used in war. The United States has a total of eight THAAD units, or “batteries,” consisting of launchers, interceptors, and radar systems. Patriot – An estimated 2,330 Patriots were in stock before the war, but between 1,060 and 1,430 were consumed. Some older versions may also be available (approximately 400).
What does this mean?
Analysts say that while the United States may have enough stockpiles to continue attacking Iran in a short war, it may not have enough for a future war, especially one with a formidable rival like China, because it has reduced its stockpiles so much.
It will likely take years for the United States to replenish itself with sophisticated and expensive weapons like those used in Iran.
As the U.S.-Iranian war escalates, President Trump and senior administration officials have publicly insisted that the United States has an “unlimited” supply of weapons.
But in March, President Trump said administration officials had met with heads of U.S. manufacturers including Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Raytheon, BAE Systems, Honeywell Aerospace, L3 Harris Missile Solutions and Northrop Grumman. He said all were committed to “quadrupling” production, and ramping up manufacturing had already begun.
Then, in June, President Trump signed the Defense Production Act, an executive order that forces U.S. weapons manufacturers to accelerate production, citing current conditions that “may pose a direct threat to national defense and preparedness programs.”
Analysts say orders forcing private companies to increase production likely reflect scheduling concerns within the Pentagon.
In the short term, the U.S. government is unlikely to respond to the demands of its allies and, for one, may not have the capacity to supply THAAD or Patriots, which Ukraine desperately needs.
“Currently, there is a growing demand for Patriot interceptors from Ukraine to protect against Russian missile attacks,” said Crisis Group’s Finukane. “The Iran war will deplete the world inventory of Patriot interceptor jets, leaving fewer such interceptors left in Ukraine.”
Supply orders are already facing difficulties. Japan’s order for 400 Tomahawks from Raytheon was scheduled to be delivered between 2025 and 2027, but U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said in May that two more years could be added to the schedule.
Meanwhile, Switzerland began talks with France, Israel and South Korea in June to buy another missile defense system, as 2022 orders from Lockheed Martin and Raytheon continue to be delayed.
How long does it take to replenish weapons?
Hegseth said in May that it could take “months, even years” to replenish supplies based on the weapons system.
Analysts say it could take one to four years for the United States to restore its stockpile of the most sophisticated munitions to pre-Iran war levels, despite President Trump’s boasts of expanding production by building new weapons factories across the country.
The Trump administration plans to purchase large amounts of advanced munitions in its proposed $1.5 trillion 2027 defense budget, a 44 percent increase from the 2026 defense budget.
According to CSIS, the estimated schedule for replenishing seven critical munitions based on existing production facilities is:
Tomahawk: 4-5 years (207 aircraft scheduled for delivery in 2026, 785 aircraft requested in 2027). JASSM: 1 year (821 scheduled for delivery in 2026, 821 requested in 2027). PrSM: 8 months (70 scheduled for delivery in 2026, 1,134 requested in 2027). SM-3: 3 years (52 aircraft scheduled for delivery in 2026, 214 aircraft requested in 2027). SM-6: 3 years (125 aircraft scheduled for delivery in 2026, 540 aircraft requested in 2027). THAAD: 3 to 3.5 years (92 aircraft scheduled for delivery in 2026, 857 aircraft requested in 2027). Patriot: 3 years (172 units scheduled for delivery in 2026, 3,202 units requested in 2027).
