Nikolaj Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, pictured on Tuesday, April 28, 2026 in Oslo, Norway.
Karina Johansen | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The CEO of the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund told CNBC on Wednesday that people shouldn’t expect the huge gains the stock market has delivered so far this year to continue.
Nicolai Tangen, head of Norges Bank Investment Management, which oversees Norway’s $2.3 trillion oil fund, spoke to CNBC’s Ben Boulos after the fund posted a record first-half profit of nearly $185 billion.
But the fund, which is overwhelmingly comprised of stocks, has had a rocky first six months of the year. NBIM’s stock portfolio fell 2.6% in the first quarter of this year, but rose 15.98% in the following three months, resulting in a first-half return of 12.95%.
Asked what the future holds for markets, Tangen told CNBC he was surprised at how well markets and the economy held up in the wake of the U.S.-Iranian war and renewed inflationary pressures.
“If you went back two years and told me this was going to happen with the Strait of Hormuz, trade barriers, geopolitical tensions, I never would have thought the market would be so resilient,” he said. “It’s hard to say exactly how this will play out, as companies are very good at operating under uncertainty and changing operating conditions, and markets are resilient. But certainly we shouldn’t expect the kind of gains we’ve seen over the past six months going forward.”
However, he advised investors not to skyrocket their holdings during periods of increased volatility.
“I think there’s one way to make money: be very long-term, don’t change your strategy, be well diversified,” Tangen said. “I think that’s a good philosophy, but leave that to some experts. Making money is harder than it looks.”
“There will be even more difficult times ahead.”
Much of the fund’s success in the first half of the year was driven by gains in semiconductor stocks, including some of the best-performing holdings in the first half, such as Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC, ASML, Intel, and Nvidia.
“Tip, chip, chip, chip,” Tangen told reporters earlier at a press conference, standing in front of a chart showing the best-performing stocks in NBIM’s portfolio.
In an interview with CNBC, Tangen acknowledged that the first half delivered “certainly very concentrated gains,” but said NBIM would not move to take profits or rebalance the fund.
“We are a near-index fund, so we typically invest in everything in the world,” he explained. “We own 1.5% of all companies in the world. We own about 3% of all (listed) companies in Europe, so we usually invest in everything. That’s very good in times like the first half of this year.”
But Tangen warned that if markets weaken significantly, the outlook for Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, which sources around 25% of the country’s fiscal budget, could be bleak.
“Certainly, if the market goes down, we will incur losses,” he said. “We’ve been in the ups and the downs, and that’s been the situation for the last 30 years. And it’s been a very, very good experience. I don’t think there’s going to be a repeat of the last 30 years. I think there’s going to be tougher times ahead. But I think for long-term large investors, you need to be well-diversified and invest for a very long time.”
Global stock markets have been volatile this year as headlines about AI capital spending, the Iran war, inflation and central banks weighed on and lifted investor sentiment. While all major Wall Street averages are up more than 10% since the beginning of the year, European averages are up more than 10% since the beginning of the year. Stocks 600 Soaring more than 11%, South Korea’s high-tech industry Kospi Despite several severe turmoil, the stock price soared more than 50%.
