Over the past few decades, the phrase “Black August” or “August Curse” has become something of a journalistic shorthand in Russia for the dramatic crisis that appears to occur during the last weeks of summer.
In some ways, Black August is roughly the Russian equivalent of British journalism’s “silly season.” It’s a late-summer lull where frivolous headlines seem to prevail, while Parliament is in session and the royal family is on vacation or surprise homecomings are announced. But Russian conventional wisdom is more pessimistic. A quick look at recent Russian history seems to support the idea that dramatic black swan events tend to occur in August.
Thirty-five years ago, a group of communist hardliners led a failed revolt against Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, unleashing centrifugal forces that ultimately led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. In August 1998, a financial crisis hit Russia, causing domestic debt defaults and the collapse of the ruble. A year later, a militant group led an invasion of Russia’s southern republic of Dagestan, sparking the Second Chechen War. The conflict propelled Vladimir Putin, a politically unknown former KGB official, into the upper echelons of power.
President Putin became Russia’s leader on New Year’s Eve 1999, after an abrupt takeover by President Boris Yeltsin. However, even this tough-guy new leader could not escape the curse of August. One of his first major challenges after assuming office was the sinking of the nuclear-powered submarine Kursk, carrying 118 sailors. Then, in August 2008, Russia went to war with neighboring Georgia, marking a new and belligerent side of Putin’s foreign policy.
Russia’s past summer is turning into a dark season for President Putin’s Russia. Progress by Russian forces on the conflict front in Ukraine has been scant. The skies above Russian cities have been blackened by Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries and Amazonian distribution centers. And long lines at fuel pumps and rumors of a new wave of mobilization have frustrated Russians.
Is this also a black August?
Russian commentator-in-exile Ilya Varlamov posted his thoughts on this question this week, calling the repeat of August’s historic disaster “of course a coincidence.”
But Varlamov continued: “Many Russians are waiting for August with anxiety, especially now that the country is in a real crisis. … The fuel crisis is back, prices are rising and are not going to stop, the ruble is falling, elections are coming up and God knows what else will happen.”
Varlamov also referred to recently published comments by Russia’s top economist who warned that Moscow faces a “social crisis”, is “losing both global technological and economic competition” and will not win a war of attrition with Western-backed Ukraine.
Even the staunch pro-Kremlin tabloid Moskovsky Komsomolets pointed to the traditional August anxiety in Russia, while looking to astrology for guidance. “A lunar eclipse is scheduled to occur this month. It’s not the most massive one, but it will occur opposite Pluto, a planet associated with catastrophes,” the article reads.
“This could lead to social changes, political changes in relations with neighboring countries, and domestic unrest. There could be an increased incidence of accidents, heightened anxiety, and breakdowns, including neurological disorders.”
But amidst the worrying speculation, Putin exuded his usual air of confidence.
In remarks on infrastructure and development projects on Wednesday, Kremlin leaders acknowledged the economic damage inflicted on Ukraine by strikes on e-commerce giant Wildberries’ warehouses, without naming the company, but downplayed its long-term impact.
“Needless to say, these attacks do not have, do not cause, and cannot cause significant consequences,” he said. “Yes, they do harm. That much is clear, we understand this, we see this, we recognize this.”
The Russian president said these logistics facilities would be rebuilt with government support. But the war in Ukraine is becoming increasingly familiar to many Russians, hitting them directly in the pockets.
Ukraine is also overcoming its wartime domestic crisis. Earlier this week, recently ousted Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov called for wartime elections, presenting a new political challenge to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
Whatever the merits of Mr. Fedorov’s claims, the move could present a new talking point for President Putin, who has repeatedly publicly questioned Mr. Zelensky’s legitimacy as president.
There’s a contrast.
Zelenskiy’s five-year term was originally scheduled to end in 2024, but martial law imposed in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 postponed Ukraine’s elections. The regime change in Kiev and large-scale anti-government protests also demonstrate that civil society and democratic processes are still alive and well in Ukraine.
The same cannot be said about Russia. On Monday, a court in the country sentenced Lev Schlossberg, an opposition politician who opposed the war in Ukraine, to 11 years in prison. Russia’s Supreme Court also banned Schlosberg’s Yabloko party from participating in the upcoming parliamentary elections.
In other words, political opposition within Russia has been effectively suppressed since President Putin started the war against Ukraine. As the American writer Ernest Hemingway undoubtedly recognized, the suffocation of civil society seemed to happen slowly, but it happened all at once with the death of imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny in February 2024. Navalny’s fateful journey to the Arctic prison colonies began one day in August 2020, when he fell ill from nerve agent poisoning on a flight back from Siberia to Moscow.
Coincidentally or not, August became a month of punishment for Russia.
