This could be the former AI king’s biggest report in 18 months, according to option pricing for Nvidia’s second-quarter earnings, which will be released after the bell.
Nvidia’s at-the-money option prices imply a 5.6% change in stock price post-report, more than double the median post-earnings change over the past four quarters, and would be the company’s largest earnings move since its 2024 Q4 report released in February 2025.
Bullish calls are trading significantly more expensive than puts, and the ratio of open call contracts to puts suggests that traders are preparing more aggressively for upside than for selling. The highest concentration of trades are in puts and calls associated with 220 strikes, with 226,000 call contracts open compared to fewer than 80,000 puts.
“Despite strong earnings and guidance, NVDA’s overall performance was poor,” said Charlie Moon, technology and momentum trading specialist at Prosper Trading Academy in Chicago. “If there was ever a time for NVDA to turn around, I think it would be today.”
An option positioning analysis by SpotGamma’s Brent Kotuba suggests that if Nvidia stock can rise above the $220 level, it could trigger momentum chasing by even some of the larger market makers.
“A strong earnings release or reaction could trigger a bull market as dealers are forced to buy stocks to hedge against negative gamma stance above 220 price points,” Kočuba said in a message to clients Tuesday morning. “That may be overstating the rise to the 230 level.”
Nvidia since the beginning of the year
A big rally would be a big change of pace for NVIDIA compared to recent earnings history. The stock has fallen since six of the past eight reports.
Still, traders are paying a price for the potential for big wins. The price of a call option, which bets on a one standard deviation move (a contract with about a 16% chance of winning), is at the 70th percentile over the past year, according to data from Nations Index. The price of a put that bets on a comparable move to the downside is in the bottom 40th percentile.
